Is there a tax on coveted rookies? It seems that way at times. Certainly, nobody was sneaking out of drafts with Marvin Harrison last year. And Ashton Jeanty won’t be sliding into the middle of the second round this summer. If you want him, you’ll need to pay.
That’s going to make it tough for me to pull the trigger on Jeanty. I don’t think I’m going to be willing to put him ahead of guys like Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams. And that will extinguish any chance of Jeanty winding up on my rosters.
But let’s look at this another way.
Below is the list of notable rookie running backs from the last 10 years. I tried to list all guys picked in the first or second round. You take the players, make note of where they went in drafts, and then compare that to how they performed.
I see eight who had ADP numbers of 12 or earlier. These were guys who were picked to be the best running back on the team that chose them. (And ADP here shows rank among running backs, not position on the overall draft board.)
Only one of these guys was a “bust” for our purposes. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (drafted onto the Super Bowl champs) was the 7th running back chosen in 2020, on average. He had a nice debut in Week 1 but fizzled, not playing to that level. And one other back, Bijan Robinson, can be called a disappointment; he was 4th in ADP but finished 8th in production among running backs, with Arthur Smith not using him as much as he should have.
But the top 6 other backs all came through and did what they were supposed to do. Two even outperformed their ADP. Saquon Barkley came off the board 6th among backs but put for 2,028 yards, with 15 TDs. Najee Harris not as spectacularly, but he was the 11th back chosen and finished 3rd (helped by a punch of cheap receptions).
In the chart below, running backs who outperformed their ADP are in bold. Those who fell short of their ADP are tagged with black dots.
If the tendency was for people to get way too excited about rookies, there would be a lot more black dots. Instead, it looks like these rookie backs, in general, have been valued about right. Not that two of the first black dots you run into – Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall – can be attributed to ACL injuries. Both of those guys more likely would have been in bold, had they stayed healthy.
Those who are hoping to pick Jeanty should be encouraged by this chart. It suggests they’re most likely on the right track.
| ROOKIE BACKS: ADP vs. production | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Run | Rec | Total | TD | PPR | Rk | ADP |
| 2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 15 | 1,631 | 363 | 1,994 | 16 | 327.4 | 2 | 3 |
| 2023 | Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 17 | 976 | 487 | 1,463 | 8 | 252.3 | 8 | 4 |
| 2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 16 | 1,307 | 721 | 2,028 | 15 | 385.8 | 2 | 6 |
| 2020 | • Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 13 | 803 | 297 | 1,100 | 5 | 176.0 | 22 | 7 |
| 2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 17 | 1,200 | 467 | 1,667 | 10 | 300.7 | 3 | 11 |
| 2017 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 13 | 1,040 | 302 | 1,342 | 10 | 230.2 | 10 | 11 |
| 2017 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 16 | 435 | 651 | 1,086 | 7 | 230.6 | 9 | 12 |
| 2023 | Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 15 | 945 | 316 | 1,261 | 11 | 244.1 | 10 | 12 |
| 2017 | • Dalvin Cook, Min. | 4 | 354 | 90 | 444 | 2 | 67.4 | 72 | 14 |
| 2015 | • Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 14 | 641 | 192 | 833 | 0 | 116.3 | 45 | 15 |
| 2019 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 13 | 1,150 | 166 | 1,316 | 7 | 193.6 | 21 | 16 |
| 2020 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 15 | 1,169 | 299 | 1,468 | 12 | 254.8 | 6 | 20 |
| 2017 | • Joe Mixon, Cin. | 14 | 626 | 287 | 913 | 4 | 145.3 | 33 | 20 |
| 2015 | • Ameer Abdullah, Det. | 16 | 597 | 183 | 780 | 3 | 121.0 | 44 | 21 |
| 2022 | • Breece Hall, NYJ | 7 | 463 | 218 | 681 | 5 | 117.1 | 42 | 23 |
| 2021 | Javonte Williams, Den. | 17 | 903 | 316 | 1,219 | 7 | 206.9 | 17 | 25 |
| 2015 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 12 | 740 | 279 | 1,019 | 3 | 155.9 | 28 | 25 |
| 2020 | • Cam Akers, LAR | 13 | 625 | 123 | 748 | 3 | 103.8 | 45 | 25 |
| 2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 13 | 1,106 | 188 | 1,294 | 10 | 210.4 | 9 | 27 |
| 2018 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 10 | 641 | 213 | 854 | 4 | 141.4 | 33 | 28 |
| 2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 16 | 818 | 509 | 1,327 | 6 | 220.7 | 15 | 29 |
| 2020 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 13 | 521 | 357 | 878 | 10 | 193.8 | 16 | 29 |
| 2020 | J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 15 | 805 | 120 | 925 | 9 | 168.5 | 24 | 31 |
| 2018 | • Rashaad Penny, Sea. | 14 | 419 | 75 | 494 | 2 | 70.4 | 68 | 31 |
| 2018 | Sony Michel, N.E. | 13 | 931 | 50 | 981 | 6 | 141.1 | 34 | 32 |
| 2016 | • Derrick Henry, Ten. | 15 | 490 | 137 | 627 | 5 | 105.7 | 45 | 34 |
| 2024 | • Jonathon Brooks, Car. | 3 | 22 | 23 | 45 | 0 | 7.5 | 114 | 35 |
| 2023 | Zach Charbonnet, Sea. | 16 | 462 | 209 | 671 | 1 | 106.1 | 45 | 38 |
| 2018 | • Ronald Jones, T.B. | 9 | 44 | 33 | 77 | 1 | 20.7 | 95 | 39 |
| 2022 | Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 15 | 1,050 | 165 | 1,215 | 9 | 202.5 | 18 | 40 |
| 2022 | James Cook, Buff. | 16 | 507 | 180 | 687 | 3 | 107.7 | 44 | 41 |
| 2018 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 16 | 996 | 149 | 1,145 | 10 | 194.5 | 17 | 43 |
| 2020 | • AJ Dillon, G.B. | 11 | 242 | 21 | 263 | 2 | 40.3 | 83 | 52 |
—Ian Allan