I’ve got three running backs who will be 23 years old on opening day in my top 10: Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Bucky Irving. That seems like a nice selling point, with them having less wear on their tires than most of the other top options.
They’re young and fresh, they’ve proven they can do it. It creates the impression that they look pretty safe to be at least as a good, with a chance to raise things another notch. That makes them look good in comparison with the backs who are nearing the end of the road – Henry, Mixon, McCaffrey, Kamara, Conner.
But that line of thinking more often falls short. It’s not easy putting up good numbers. It requires staying healthy and the supporting cast – players and coaches – not fouling things up. And opponents may come into games making the guy who was so good as a 22-year-old more of a priority.
Checking the numbers, they show that of the most productive running backs of the last 30 years, over twice as many got not better but worse. Of the 25 backs on the chart below, 7 got better (tagged with black dots). But 18 got worse.
BEST 22-YEAR-OLDS OF LAST 30 YEARS | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | PPR | Rk |
2000 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 16 | 1709 | 594 | 2303 | 18 | 403.3 | 2 |
2018 | • Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 16 | 1098 | 867 | 1965 | 13 | 388.0 | 1 |
2021 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 17 | 1811 | 360 | 2171 | 20 | 377.1 | 1 |
2014 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 16 | 1361 | 854 | 2215 | 11 | 370.5 | 1 |
2024 | Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 17 | 1412 | 517 | 1929 | 20 | 364.9 | 1 |
2024 | Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 17 | 1456 | 431 | 1887 | 15 | 341.7 | 3 |
2009 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 16 | 1339 | 702 | 2041 | 8 | 330.1 | 3 |
2017 | • Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 16 | 728 | 826 | 1554 | 14 | 322.4 | 3 |
2003 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 13 | 1591 | 314 | 1905 | 14 | 314.5 | 6 |
1998 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 15 | 1223 | 421 | 1644 | 17 | 310.4 | 4 |
2010 | • LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 15 | 1080 | 592 | 1672 | 9 | 299.2 | 3 |
2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 16 | 1327 | 455 | 1782 | 11 | 297.2 | 4 |
1995 | • Curtis Martin, N.E. | 16 | 1487 | 261 | 1748 | 15 | 296.8 | 5 |
1995 | Marshall Faulk, Ind. | 16 | 1078 | 475 | 1553 | 14 | 295.3 | 6 |
2023 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 17 | 994 | 591 | 1585 | 9 | 290.5 | 2 |
2001 | • LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 16 | 1236 | 367 | 1603 | 10 | 279.3 | 6 |
2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 16 | 1282 | 377 | 1659 | 10 | 275.9 | 7 |
2007 | • Adrian Peterson, Min. | 14 | 1341 | 268 | 1609 | 13 | 257.9 | 5 |
2012 | Trent Richardson, Cle. | 15 | 950 | 367 | 1317 | 12 | 254.7 | 8 |
2020 | James Robinson, Jac. | 14 | 1070 | 344 | 1414 | 10 | 252.4 | 7 |
2024 | Bucky Irving, T.B. | 17 | 1122 | 392 | 1514 | 8 | 246.4 | 15 |
2019 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 13 | 1003 | 438 | 1441 | 8 | 244.1 | 11 |
2018 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 14 | 1168 | 296 | 1464 | 9 | 243.4 | 10 |
2005 | • Steven Jackson, St.L. | 15 | 1046 | 320 | 1366 | 10 | 239.6 | 9 |
2020 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 15 | 1065 | 238 | 1303 | 12 | 235.3 | 8 |
2008 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 15 | 1036 | 300 | 1336 | 9 | 234.6 | 13 |
2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 15 | 1313 | 298 | 1611 | 7 | 232.1 | 10 |
2017 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 13 | 1040 | 302 | 1342 | 10 | 230.2 | 10 |
The dropoff is a little larger than I expected. As a group, the 25 running backs declined by almost 10,000 yards, with 67 fewer touchdowns. An average per man of 396 yards (not rushing yards but total yards) and 2.7 touchdowns.
That works against the trusty gut feel of “they were good when they were 22, they should raise it another notch now”.
Some big bites of the decline, of course, are created by injuries. Edgerrin James, LeVeon Bell, Leonard Fournette and Saquon Barkley all missed at least half of their second season. The 23-year-old backs played in 55 fewer games.
But there’s more to it than simply missing games. If we work off per-game numbers, the 22-year-olds averaged 107 run-rec yards per game. The 23-year-olds averaged 9 fewer yards, with a similar decline in touchdowns.
I’m not trying to scare anyone off Gibbs, Henry or Robinson. I like all of those guys, with Robinson and Gibbs at the top of the position, in my opinion. But the historical numbers suggest that if you were walking into a casino and wagering on the over-under for those guys, it’s about twice as likely for each guy that they’ll be under rather than over.
BEST 22-YEAR-OLDS OF LAST 30 YEARS (the next yr) | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | PPR | Rk | Diff |
1996 | • Curtis Martin, N.E. | 16 | 1,152 | 333 | 1,485 | 17 | 298.5 | 4 | 1 |
1996 | Marshall Faulk, Ind. | 13 | 587 | 428 | 1,015 | 7 | 199.5 | 13 | -7 |
1999 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 10 | 732 | 83 | 815 | 6 | 127.5 | 32 | -28 |
2001 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 6 | 662 | 193 | 855 | 3 | 129.5 | 32 | -30 |
2002 | • LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 16 | 1,683 | 489 | 2,172 | 15 | 386.2 | 2 | 4 |
2004 | Clinton Portis, Was. | 15 | 1,315 | 235 | 1,550 | 7 | 241.8 | 9 | -3 |
2006 | • Steven Jackson, St.L. | 16 | 1,528 | 806 | 2,334 | 16 | 419.4 | 2 | 7 |
2008 | • Adrian Peterson, Min. | 16 | 1,760 | 125 | 1,885 | 10 | 269.5 | 9 | -4 |
2009 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 13 | 450 | 179 | 629 | 2 | 102.9 | 45 | -32 |
2009 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 11 | 437 | 417 | 854 | 7 | 171.4 | 27 | -20 |
2010 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 16 | 1,220 | 556 | 1,776 | 6 | 276.6 | 7 | -4 |
2011 | • LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 15 | 1,309 | 315 | 1,624 | 20 | 330.4 | 2 | 1 |
2013 | Trent Richardson, 2TM | 16 | 563 | 316 | 879 | 4 | 146.9 | 32 | -24 |
2015 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 6 | 556 | 136 | 692 | 3 | 111.2 | 49 | -48 |
2017 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 16 | 1,122 | 125 | 1,247 | 9 | 201.7 | 15 | -5 |
2018 | • Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 15 | 883 | 709 | 1,592 | 18 | 354.2 | 4 | -1 |
2018 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 11 | 824 | 378 | 1,202 | 14 | 230.2 | 12 | -8 |
2018 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 8 | 439 | 185 | 624 | 6 | 120.4 | 41 | -31 |
2019 | • Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 16 | 1,387 | 1,005 | 2,392 | 19 | 471.2 | 1 | 0 |
2019 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 16 | 1,137 | 287 | 1,424 | 8 | 225.4 | 13 | -3 |
2020 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 2 | 34 | 60 | 94 | 0 | 15.4 | 121 | -110 |
2021 | James Robinson, Jac. | 14 | 767 | 222 | 989 | 8 | 177.9 | 24 | -17 |
2021 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 15 | 872 | 348 | 1,220 | 9 | 230.0 | 12 | -4 |
2022 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 11 | 861 | 143 | 1,004 | 4 | 152.4 | 33 | -32 |
2024 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 16 | 876 | 483 | 1,359 | 8 | 244.9 | 16 | -14 |
2025 | Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2025 | Bucky Irving, T.B. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2025 | Bijan Robinson, Atl. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan