Fantasy Index

Factoid

Young backs on the rise

Gibbs, Bijan moving into the prime years

I’ve got three running backs who will be 23 years old on opening day in my top 10: Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Bucky Irving. That seems like a nice selling point, with them having less wear on their tires than most of the other top options.

They’re young and fresh, they’ve proven they can do it. It creates the impression that they look pretty safe to be at least as a good, with a chance to raise things another notch. That makes them look good in comparison with the backs who are nearing the end of the road – Henry, Mixon, McCaffrey, Kamara, Conner.

But that line of thinking more often falls short. It’s not easy putting up good numbers. It requires staying healthy and the supporting cast – players and coaches – not fouling things up. And opponents may come into games making the guy who was so good as a 22-year-old more of a priority.

Checking the numbers, they show that of the most productive running backs of the last 30 years, over twice as many got not better but worse. Of the 25 backs on the chart below, 7 got better (tagged with black dots). But 18 got worse.

BEST 22-YEAR-OLDS OF LAST 30 YEARS
YearPlayerGRunRecTotTDPPRRk
2000Edgerrin James, Ind.161709594230318403.32
2018• Christian McCaffrey, Car.161098867196513388.01
2021Jonathan Taylor, Ind.171811360217120377.11
2014LeVeon Bell, Pitt.161361854221511370.51
2024Jahmyr Gibbs, Det.171412517192920364.91
2024Bijan Robinson, Atl.171456431188715341.73
2009Ray Rice, Balt.16133970220418330.13
2017• Alvin Kamara, N.O.16728826155414322.43
2003Clinton Portis, Den.131591314190514314.56
1998Fred Taylor, Jac.151223421164417310.44
2010• LeSean McCoy, Phil.15108059216729299.23
2017Kareem Hunt, K.C.161327455178211297.24
1995• Curtis Martin, N.E.161487261174815296.85
1995Marshall Faulk, Ind.161078475155314295.36
2023Breece Hall, NYJ1799459115859290.52
2001• LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.161236367160310279.36
2008Steve Slaton, Hou.161282377165910275.97
2007• Adrian Peterson, Min.141341268160913257.95
2012Trent Richardson, Cle.15950367131712254.78
2020James Robinson, Jac.141070344141410252.47
2024Bucky Irving, T.B.17112239215148246.415
2019Saquon Barkley, NYG13100343814418244.111
2018Joe Mixon, Cin.14116829614649243.410
2005• Steven Jackson, St.L.151046320136610239.69
2020Josh Jacobs, L.V.151065238130312235.38
2008Marshawn Lynch, Buff.15103630013369234.613
2016Jordan Howard, Chi.15131329816117232.110
2017Leonard Fournette, Jac.131040302134210230.210

The dropoff is a little larger than I expected. As a group, the 25 running backs declined by almost 10,000 yards, with 67 fewer touchdowns. An average per man of 396 yards (not rushing yards but total yards) and 2.7 touchdowns.

That works against the trusty gut feel of “they were good when they were 22, they should raise it another notch now”.

Some big bites of the decline, of course, are created by injuries. Edgerrin James, LeVeon Bell, Leonard Fournette and Saquon Barkley all missed at least half of their second season. The 23-year-old backs played in 55 fewer games.

But there’s more to it than simply missing games. If we work off per-game numbers, the 22-year-olds averaged 107 run-rec yards per game. The 23-year-olds averaged 9 fewer yards, with a similar decline in touchdowns.

I’m not trying to scare anyone off Gibbs, Henry or Robinson. I like all of those guys, with Robinson and Gibbs at the top of the position, in my opinion. But the historical numbers suggest that if you were walking into a casino and wagering on the over-under for those guys, it’s about twice as likely for each guy that they’ll be under rather than over.

BEST 22-YEAR-OLDS OF LAST 30 YEARS (the next yr)
YearPlayerGRunRecTotTDPPRRkDiff
1996• Curtis Martin, N.E.161,1523331,48517298.541
1996Marshall Faulk, Ind.135874281,0157199.513-7
1999Fred Taylor, Jac.10732838156127.532-28
2001Edgerrin James, Ind.66621938553129.532-30
2002• LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.161,6834892,17215386.224
2004Clinton Portis, Was.151,3152351,5507241.89-3
2006• Steven Jackson, St.L.161,5288062,33416419.427
2008• Adrian Peterson, Min.161,7601251,88510269.59-4
2009Marshawn Lynch, Buff.134501796292102.945-32
2009Steve Slaton, Hou.114374178547171.427-20
2010Ray Rice, Balt.161,2205561,7766276.67-4
2011• LeSean McCoy, Phil.151,3093151,62420330.421
2013Trent Richardson, 2TM165633168794146.932-24
2015LeVeon Bell, Pitt.65561366923111.249-48
2017Jordan Howard, Chi.161,1221251,2479201.715-5
2018• Alvin Kamara, N.O.158837091,59218354.24-1
2018Kareem Hunt, K.C.118243781,20214230.212-8
2018Leonard Fournette, Jac.84391856246120.441-31
2019• Christian McCaffrey, Car.161,3871,0052,39219471.210
2019Joe Mixon, Cin.161,1372871,4248225.413-3
2020Saquon Barkley, NYG2346094015.4121-110
2021James Robinson, Jac.147672229898177.924-17
2021Josh Jacobs, L.V.158723481,2209230.012-4
2022Jonathan Taylor, Ind.118611431,0044152.433-32
2024Breece Hall, NYJ168764831,3598244.916-14
2025Jahmyr Gibbs, Det.????????
2025Bucky Irving, T.B.????????
2025Bijan Robinson, Atl.????????

—Ian Allan

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