There are now over-under win totals for each team. And strength of schedule looks a little different if those numbers are plugged in.
This makes sense. The strength of schedule charts that fly around are typically based on how teams performed last year. Some of those teams, though, will be a lot better or worse.
The over-under totals make more sense. They’re similar, but they include the component of people being able to look at the draft and free agent moves, calculating how many games a team might win. If an over-under win total is too high, most people will bet the under, and the market will drive it down.
Plugging those numbers into the schedule, I notice the following:
The Falcons, with our guy Darnell Mooney, are the most notable upward mover, from 13th to tying for 4th. Their schedule looks a lot easier.
The Browns and Texans fall the most. With Cleveland, it was supposed to rank 20th in schedule difficulty, but it drops all the way to next-to-last. Houston slips from having a slightly better than average schedule to a bottom-10 slate.
Most of the teams look pretty similar. The 49ers, Patriots and Saints still project to play the easiest schedules. The Giants still project to play the hardest.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (over/unders) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Win | Loss | Pct | Prev rk |
San Francisco | 129 | 159 | .448 | 1 |
New England | 132 | 156 | .458 | 3 |
New Orleans | 135 | 153 | .469 | 2 |
Atlanta | 139 | 149 | .483 | 13 |
Miami | 139 | 149 | .483 | 11-12 |
Buffalo | 139 | 149 | .483 | 9-10 |
Jacksonville | 139 | 149 | .483 | 9-10 |
Carolina | 140 | 148 | .486 | 5-6 |
Tennessee | 140 | 148 | .486 | 4 |
Tampa Bay | 141 | 147 | .490 | 14-15 |
Arizona | 141 | 147 | .490 | 5-6 |
Indianapolis | 142 | 146 | .493 | 8 |
Denver | 143 | 145 | .497 | 18 |
Seattle | 143 | 145 | .497 | 11-12 |
NY Jets | 143 | 145 | .497 | 7 |
LA Chargers | 144 | 144 | .500 | 21-22 |
Cincinnati | 144 | 144 | .500 | 19 |
Baltimore | 145 | 143 | .503 | 24 |
Pittsburgh | 145 | 143 | .503 | 23 |
Las Vegas | 145 | 143 | .503 | 17 |
Washington | 146 | 142 | .507 | 25 |
LA Rams | 146 | 142 | .507 | 16 |
Houston | 146 | 142 | .507 | 14-15 |
Dallas | 147 | 141 | .510 | 26-28 |
Green Bay | 147 | 141 | .510 | 26-28 |
Chicago | 148 | 140 | .514 | 30-31 |
Kansas City | 148 | 140 | .514 | 21-22 |
Philadelphia | 149 | 139 | .517 | 29 |
Minnesota | 149 | 139 | .517 | 26-28 |
Detroit | 151 | 137 | .524 | 30-31 |
Cleveland | 151 | 137 | .524 | 20 |
NY Giants | 155 | 133 | .538 | 32 |
—Ian Allan