It looks like scheduling might play more of a factor than usual this year. Especially for teams in the NFC North and NFC East divisions.
The Giants, Bears and Lions lead the way. All play their 17 games against teams that won over 40 more games than they lost last year. New York’s opponents went a remarkable 166-123-0 last year. That seemingly doesn’t bode well for Malik Nabers and the rest of the Giants.
Four other teams have schedules featuring opponents won at least 33 more games than they lost last year: Eagles, Packers, Vikings and Cowboys.
If we compare these schedules to others from the last 10 years, they’ve got a bunch of placers near the top in difficulty. Below are the 20 expected toughest schedules since 2015, ordered by winning percentage. You would expect there to be two 2025 schedules on their list, but there are instead seven.
HARDEST SCHEDULES (last 10 years) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | W | L | T | Pct | Actual |
2017 | Denver | 147 | 107 | 2 | .578 | 115-125-0 |
2015 | Pittsburgh | 147 | 107 | 2 | .578 | 123-117-0 |
2017 | Kansas City | 147 | 108 | 1 | .576 | 116-124-0 |
2025 | NY Giants | 166 | 123 | 0 | .574 | TBD |
2022 | LA Rams | 166 | 123 | 0 | .574 | 137-134-0 |
2021 | Pittsburgh | 155 | 115 | 2 | .574 | 143-129-0 |
2025 | Chicago | 165 | 124 | 0 | .571 | TBD |
2025 | Detroit | 165 | 124 | 0 | .571 | TBD |
2017 | LA Chargers | 145 | 110 | 1 | .568 | 110-130-0 |
2023 | Philadelphia | 161 | 123 | 4 | .566 | 133-139-0 |
2017 | Oakland | 144 | 111 | 1 | .564 | 121-119-0 |
2021 | Baltimore | 152 | 118 | 2 | .563 | 143-126-3 |
2015 | Cincinnati | 144 | 112 | 0 | .563 | 118-122-0 |
2025 | Philadelphia | 162 | 127 | 0 | .561 | TBD |
2017 | Buffalo | 143 | 112 | 1 | .561 | 119-121-0 |
2015 | San Francisco | 143 | 112 | 1 | .561 | 127-113-0 |
2015 | Seattle | 142 | 112 | 2 | .559 | 127-113-0 |
2025 | Green Bay | 161 | 128 | 0 | .557 | TBD |
2025 | Minnesota | 161 | 128 | 0 | .557 | TBD |
2025 | Dallas | 161 | 128 | 0 | .557 | TBD |
These are just preseason numbers, of course. Note that of the 13 expected hardest schedules since 2015, only four ended up playing schedules with notable difficulty (10-plus more wins than losses). Six of those 13 actually played schedules that finished on the easy side of the ledger. (Underscoring that strength of schedule shouldn’t be factored in too much in decision making.)
While we’ve got these numbers out, we may as well also present those from the other end. The 49ers, Saints and Patriots project to play three of the 10 easiest schedules of the last 10 years.
But again, that’s just the expectation. It’s a safe assumption that a lot of those numbers will be foiled by teams getting a lot better or worse than the previous season. In 2015, the Colts, Texans and Saints all headed into the season expecting to play really easing schedules, but all three of those teams instead played their 16 games against opponents that finished .500 (on average).
EASIEST SCHEDULES (last 10 years) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | W | L | T | Pct | Actual |
2015 | Atlanta | 104 | 150 | 2 | .410 | 115-125-0 |
2025 | San Francisco | 120 | 169 | 0 | .415 | TBD |
2015 | Indianapolis | 106 | 149 | 1 | .416 | 120-120-0 |
2015 | Houston | 106 | 148 | 2 | .418 | 120-120-0 |
2025 | New Orleans | 121 | 168 | 0 | .419 | TBD |
2017 | Indianapolis | 107 | 146 | 3 | .424 | 111-129-0 |
2023 | Atlanta | 121 | 165 | 3 | .424 | 114-158-0 |
2015 | Tampa Bay | 108 | 146 | 2 | .426 | 114-126-0 |
2023 | New Orleans | 122 | 164 | 3 | .427 | 117-155-0 |
2025 | New England | 124 | 165 | 0 | .429 | TBD |
2015 | New Orleans | 109 | 145 | 2 | .430 | 120-120-0 |
2021 | Philadelphia | 117 | 155 | 0 | .430 | 127-144-1 |
2015 | Carolina | 111 | 145 | 0 | .434 | 112-128-0 |
2023 | Houston | 124 | 162 | 2 | .434 | 130-142-0 |
2015 | Tennessee | 111 | 144 | 1 | .436 | 113-127-0 |
2023 | Indianapolis | 125 | 161 | 2 | .438 | 134-138-0 |
2020 | Baltimore | 112 | 144 | 0 | .438 | 120-117-3 |
2017 | Jacksonville | 111 | 142 | 3 | .439 | 105-135-0 |
2017 | Tennessee | 111 | 142 | 3 | .439 | 104-136-0 |
2017 | Cincinnati | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 | 110-130-0 |
—Ian Allan