There was a story last week with Breece Hall saying he believes he's a three-down running back. This was a response to being asked about the possibility of being part of a committee, with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis, in the new offense. Hall's feelings are understandable, as is the notion of change coming to a long-struggling ground game.
New Jets head coach Aaron Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand can't be blamed for wanting to shake things up some. After all, they're moving from one of the league's very best ground games to one of its very worst. Changes should be on the table.
New York has ranked in the bottom 10 in rushing offense seven years in a row. The last two years they've ranked last or next-to-last in rushing touchdowns, with 15 total across those two seasons. That puts them at the exact opposite end of the spectrum as the Lions team those coaches come over from. Detroit has scored 56 rushing touchdowns the last two years, most in the NFL.
| RUSHING TDS, 2023-2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | '23 | '24 | Tot |
| Detroit | 27 | 29 | 56 |
| Buffalo | 22 | 32 | 54 |
| Philadelphia | 22 | 29 | 51 |
| Baltimore | 26 | 21 | 47 |
| San Francisco | 27 | 17 | 44 |
| Indianapolis | 19 | 20 | 39 |
| Washington | 14 | 25 | 39 |
| Miami | 27 | 12 | 39 |
| Arizona | 17 | 18 | 35 |
| Green Bay | 10 | 23 | 33 |
| LA Rams | 18 | 15 | 33 |
| Atlanta | 14 | 18 | 32 |
| Jacksonville | 17 | 13 | 30 |
| Pittsburgh | 16 | 14 | 30 |
| Chicago | 16 | 13 | 29 |
| Seattle | 11 | 17 | 28 |
| LA Chargers | 11 | 17 | 28 |
| New Orleans | 13 | 15 | 28 |
| Tennessee | 16 | 11 | 27 |
| Carolina | 7 | 18 | 25 |
| Houston | 10 | 15 | 25 |
| Kansas City | 9 | 15 | 24 |
| Tampa Bay | 8 | 16 | 24 |
| NY Giants | 10 | 13 | 23 |
| Cleveland | 15 | 8 | 23 |
| Cincinnati | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Las Vegas | 11 | 10 | 21 |
| New England | 9 | 11 | 20 |
| Denver | 8 | 12 | 20 |
| Dallas | 14 | 6 | 20 |
| Minnesota | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| NY Jets | 7 | 8 | 15 |
But the new Jets coaching staff, or those holding onto Jets running backs in dynasty leagues, can at least take solace from the fact that there's nowhere to go but up. Teams that have finished at the bottom of the league in rushing touchdowns tend to get better the next season. In some cases, a lot better.
I looked at the five worst teams in rushing touchdowns over each of the past five seasons. Of those 25 teams, only four of them came back and scored fewer rushing touchdowns a year later. The other 21 not only improved, but more than half (12) improved by 5-plus touchdowns. (In the table, the decliners are in italics.)
| TD-POOR RUN GAMES, NEXT SEASON (2019-2024) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | '19 | '20 | +/- |
| Chicago | 8 | 12 | +4 |
| Detroit | 7 | 17 | +10 |
| Pittsburgh | 7 | 12 | +5 |
| NY Jets | 6 | 9 | +3 |
| Jacksonville | 3 | 9 | +6 |
| Team | '20 | '21 | '+/- |
| Chicago | 12 | 14 | +2 |
| Pittsburgh | 12 | 10 | -2 |
| Houston | 10 | 8 | -2 |
| NY Jets | 9 | 14 | +5 |
| Jacksonville | 9 | 13 | +4 |
| Team | '21 | '22 | '+/- |
| Minnesota | 10 | 18 | +8 |
| LA Rams | 10 | 15 | +5 |
| Pittsburgh | 10 | 16 | +6 |
| NY Giants | 8 | 21 | +13 |
| Houston | 8 | 7 | -1 |
| Team | '22 | '23 | '+/- |
| Denver | 11 | 8 | -3 |
| Washington | 9 | 14 | +5 |
| Indianapolis | 8 | 19 | +11 |
| Houston | 7 | 10 | +3 |
| Tampa Bay | 5 | 8 | +3 |
| Team | '23 | '24 | '+/- |
| Denver | 8 | 12 | +4 |
| Tampa Bay | 8 | 16 | +8 |
| Minnesota | 7 | 9 | +2 |
| Carolina | 7 | 18 | +11 |
| NY Jets | 7 | 8 | +1 |
In general, odds are great that the Jets will be scoring more rushing touchdowns next season; potentially a lot more. Now, we can't be 100 percent certain who the main beneficiary will be (Justin Fields, for example, might be running in a bunch of them, while 235-pound Braelon Allen has 15 pounds on Hall and Davis). But the new coaching staff should be overseeing an offense that will be more respectable in this area in 2025.
In general, I'm leery of Hall. There's the possibility the contract-year player is run into the ground by the new coaching staff, but I think it's more likely a one-two punch, as was employed in Detroit. It's a backfield to watch closely in August, but I suspect Hall will be going earlier than I'll be interested in him. Even if the ground game itself is a lot better, multiple backs being involved is probable.
--Andy Richardson