In a fight behind the schoolhouse, you want to land the first punch, the old idiom goes. With that in mind, it makes sense to look at which teams have the most favorable early-season schedules.
It’s a lot better to start a season 3-1, after all, than 1-3. It allows you to take more of a long-term view with waiver moves and trades – there’s not that pressure to get out of a hole. And if we’re prioritizing trying to avoid a dreaded 1-3 start, we can take a look at early schedules.
The Cardinals, last year’s numbers suggest, will play the easiest schedule for the first five weeks of the season. Their first five opponents averaged fewer than 6 wins last year, and with a league-high 25.8 points per game (over a point more than all but one team).
If there’s any validity to the ideas that Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison should be better, it should be apparent early. Arizona’s first five games are against the Saints, Panthers, 49ers, Seahawks and Titans, with three of those games at home.
The Bills also look like a potential fast starter. They open against the Ravens; nothing easy about that, but at least the game is at home. And their following four are against the Jets, Dolphins, Saints and Patriots, with all but one of those five games at home.
The Dolphins (if they can get things cobbled together) also could benefit from an easy early schedule. Their first five are against teams that went 35-50 last year, and with the 2nd-most points in the league.
The Browns are the opposite of the Cardinals. The numbers suggest they’ll play the hardest schedule in their first five (using both wins or points). Four other teams will play opponents giving up (on average) fewer than 22 points in the first five weeks, and all have notable offenses: Kansas City, Dallas, Baltimore, Cincinnati.
The four other teams whose opponents have won over 60 percent of games (through Week 5) all have offenses of some fantasy importance: Ravens, Falcons, Eagles, Bears.
| SCHEDULING, WINS (G 1-5) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Win | Loss | Pct |
| Arizona | 29 | 56 | .341 |
| Carolina | 32 | 53 | .376 |
| Buffalo | 34 | 51 | .400 |
| Indianapolis | 35 | 50 | .412 |
| Miami | 35 | 50 | .412 |
| Minnesota | 35 | 50 | .412 |
| Pittsburgh | 36 | 49 | .424 |
| San Francisco | 37 | 48 | .435 |
| Washington | 37 | 48 | .435 |
| Dallas | 38 | 47 | .447 |
| Houston | 39 | 46 | .459 |
| Seattle | 39 | 46 | .459 |
| Detroit | 40 | 45 | .471 |
| Las Vegas | 40 | 45 | .471 |
| New England | 40 | 45 | .471 |
| New Orleans | 40 | 45 | .471 |
| LA Rams | 41 | 44 | .482 |
| Kansas City | 44 | 41 | .518 |
| LA Chargers | 44 | 41 | .518 |
| Denver | 45 | 40 | .529 |
| Jacksonville | 45 | 40 | .529 |
| Cincinnati | 46 | 39 | .541 |
| Green Bay | 46 | 39 | .541 |
| Tennessee | 46 | 39 | .541 |
| Tampa Bay | 47 | 38 | .553 |
| NY Jets | 48 | 37 | .565 |
| NY Giants | 50 | 35 | .588 |
| Chicago | 52 | 33 | .612 |
| Philadelphia | 52 | 33 | .612 |
| Atlanta | 54 | 31 | .635 |
| Baltimore | 56 | 29 | .659 |
| Cleveland | 61 | 24 | .718 |
| SCHEDULING, POINTS (G 1-5) | |
|---|---|
| Team | Avg |
| Arizona | 25.8 |
| Miami | 25.3 |
| Jacksonville | 24.7 |
| Green Bay | 24.4 |
| New England | 24.1 |
| Houston | 23.8 |
| Carolina | 23.7 |
| Atlanta | 23.6 |
| Minnesota | 23.6 |
| LA Rams | 23.5 |
| Chicago | 23.1 |
| San Francisco | 23.1 |
| New Orleans | 23.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 23.0 |
| Indianapolis | 23.0 |
| Seattle | 22.9 |
| Buffalo | 22.9 |
| Detroit | 22.8 |
| NY Jets | 22.7 |
| Denver | 22.6 |
| Washington | 22.5 |
| Las Vegas | 22.4 |
| NY Giants | 22.2 |
| LA Chargers | 22.1 |
| Philadelphia | 22.1 |
| Tennessee | 22.1 |
| Tampa Bay | 22.0 |
| Cincinnati | 21.8 |
| Baltimore | 21.7 |
| Dallas | 21.5 |
| Kansas City | 21.4 |
| Cleveland | 21.3 |
—Ian Allan