I figured we were done with Nick Chubb as a relevant fantasy back, but maybe not. Joe Mixon has a foot injury, and his availability is unclear.
According to the report, Mixon "will miss multiple weeks of training camp," which isn't necessarily a huge deal, but the rest of it reads "...with the hopes of being able to return for Week 1." That's somewhat short of being a guarantee, and veteran running backs with foot injuries are at least in the ballpark of being on my Do Not Draft list. It's still July, just barely, so perhaps Mixon will be perfectly fine for the start of the season. But it's reasonable to take a look at the backfield should he not be available.
Chubb is a 29-year-old running back who averaged just 3.3 yards per attempt last season. He attracted minimal interest as a free agent before signing with Houston for one year and $2.5 million, with $1.5 million in guarantees but incentives worth up to an additional $2.5 million. If we're Chubb's agent, we can say he signed for up to $5 million. Since we're not, we can say Houston's actual risk with this deal is pretty small.
The key question is Was Chubb terrible last year because he was coming back from a devastating knee injury, and he'll be better a year removed from that injury, or was he terrible because he's a washed-up running back who turns 30 during the season, and it's over? Best guess, from me, is that it's over, but it's certainly possible he has another year left in him.
If I'm out on Chubb, than either Dameon Pierce or fourth-round rookie Woody Marks (pictured) are the best bets. Pierce had a standout rookie season in 2022, then flopped to just 2.9 yards per attempt in Year 2, without the excuse of coming off a knee injury. Looking at Pierce's gamelog from the 2023 season, ending with him being benched (and Mixon being brought in a few months later), is one of the most depressing stretches of games from a starting running back you'll ever see.
| DAMEON PIERCE GAME LOG, 2023 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Att | Run | TD | Avg |
| at Bal. | 11 | 38 | 0 | 3.5 |
| Ind. | 15 | 31 | 0 | 2.1 |
| at Jac. | 14 | 31 | 1 | 2.2 |
| Pit. | 24 | 81 | 0 | 3.4 |
| at Atl. | 20 | 66 | 0 | 3.3 |
| N.O. | 13 | 34 | 0 | 2.6 |
| at Car. | 12 | 46 | 0 | 3.8 |
| Jac. | 5 | 14 | 0 | 2.8 |
| Den. | 15 | 41 | 1 | 2.7 |
| at NYJ. | 4 | 9 | 0 | 2.3 |
| at Ten. | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3.0 |
| Cle. | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2.0 |
| Ten. | 8 | 16 | 0 | 2.0 |
You might not think it would be possible for an NFL running back to play 13 games, including double-digit carries as the starter in nine straight, and not average more than 3.8 yards per attempt in a single one of them -- more than 3.5 just once -- but Pierce achieved it.
Last year he shows up as averaging 7.3 yards per attempt, but might be best to set aside his Week 18 game (19 carries for 176 yards and a touchdown against a Titans team nailing down the top pick in the draft). Prior to that game Pierce carried 21 times for 117 yards and a touchdown on the season. That's pretty good (5.6 per attempt), so maybe he gets a chance. But his work as a starter the previous season is not encouraging.
Fourth-rounder Marks, then, looks like the guy to throw a late-round pick at. Combine numbers are nothing special (4.54), but he sure can catch the ball. In four of his five college seasons (first Mississippi State, then Southern Cal last year) he caught at least 47 passes. He had his best year running it last year, with 198 carries for 1,133 yards and 9 touchdowns. As you'll note from the picture, heavily muscled legs on this guy.
If Mixon misses time, Chubb is probably the best bet to start, and maybe Pierce if he has a really good preseason (but I think he's also battling for a roster spot). But Marks looks like the guy I'll be drafting late and hoping he gets a shot.
--Andy Richardson