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Bad news for Bears

Caleb Williams looks iffy so far

The reports suggest it’s been a rough go for Caleb Williams in Chicago. Ben Johnson hasn’t yet been able to turn him around.

It’s early, of course. But Williams seems to be struggling with some of the same issues that plagued him last year, hanging onto the ball too long, missed opportunities and plays simply not being run quickly enough. Johnson benched the entire offense at one point.

Not that anybody should be pulling the plug on Williams just yet, but it’s a reminder that he’s one of just many quarterbacks who could potentially be a lot better this year. He’s a later-round prospect, rather than an up-and-comer who looks certain to take a big step forward – in there with the other second-year gamble, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix.

More often than not, those second-year dart throws miss. In the 32-team era, there have been 25 quarterbacks selected in the first round who finished with bottom-10 numbers in their first year. (Not cumulative numbers, but per-game stats, relative to other quarterbacks starting at least half the season).

FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS WITH BOTTOM-10 NUMBERS
YearPlayerStPassTDPIntRunTDRPtsRk
2002David Carr, Hou.16162.56.9418.1913.528
2002Joey Harrington, Det.121871.001.330.0013.429
2003Kyle Boller, Balt.9139.781.007.0011.631
2004Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.131881.15.6911.0815.624
2008Joe Flacco, Balt.16186.88.7511.1314.826
2009Josh Freeman, T.B.92041.112.0017.0016.823
2009Mark Sanchez, NYJ15163.801.337.2013.528
2010Sam Bradford, St.L.162201.13.944.0616.224
2011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.14154.86.797.0011.833
2011Christian Ponder, Min.101751.301.3021.0016.124
2012Brandon Weeden, Clev.15226.931.137.0015.827
2012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.16206.75.8113.1315.628
2013EJ Manuel, Buff.101971.10.9019.2017.725
2014Blake Bortles, Jac.13207.691.1530.0016.227
2016Carson Wentz, Phil.162361.00.889.1317.827
2017Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.12183.58.5821.1714.729
2018Josh Rosen, Ariz.13172.851.0010.0013.132
2018Sam Darnold, NYJ132201.311.1511.0817.827
2020Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.92011.22.5612.3318.429
2021Justin Fields, Chi.10180.70.9039.1016.330
2021Mac Jones, N.E.172241.29.768.0017.126
2021Trevor Lawrence, Jac.17214.711.0020.1216.229
2021Zach Wilson, NYJ13180.69.8514.3115.231
2022Kenny Pickett, Pitt.12190.58.5019.0814.530
2023Bryce Young, Car.16180.69.6316.0013.628
2024Caleb Williams, Chi.172081.18.3529.0018.422

Of those 25 quarterbacks, only eight (about 1 in 3) finished with top-20 per-game numbers the next season. Four moved up into the top 10 (and those guys are in old), while the other four ranked between 11th and 16th (tagged with dots).

To me, Williams looks like a decent dice roll as a second quarterback, but not a guy I would want to invest much in.

THOSE SAME QUARTERBACKS IN SECOND SEASONS
YearPlayerStPassTDPIntRunTDRPtsRk
2003David Carr, Hou.11181.821.0911.1814.526
2003Joey Harrington, Det.161801.061.385.0014.027
2004Kyle Boller, Balt.16160.81.6912.0612.931
2005• Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.121991.42.756.2517.715
2009Joe Flacco, Balt.162261.31.754.0016.921
2010• Josh Freeman, T.B.162161.56.3823.0019.416
2010Mark Sanchez, NYJ162061.06.817.1916.423
2011Sam Bradford, St.L.10216.60.603.0013.532
2012Christian Ponder, Min.161831.13.7516.1316.126
2012Blaine Gabbert, Jac.10166.90.606.0012.931
2013Ryan Tannehill, Mia.162451.501.0615.0620.120
2013Brandon Weeden, Clev.53041.601.608.0022.5--
2014EJ Manuel, Buff.42101.25.7513.2518.3--
2015Blake Bortles, Jac.162772.191.1319.1325.42
2017Carson Wentz, Phil.132542.54.5423.0025.72
2018Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.142301.71.8630.2123.210
2019Sam Darnold, NYJ132331.461.005.1519.326
2019Josh Rosen, Mia.3155.331.004.009.5--
2021Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.122081.33.8311.1717.822
2022Justin Fields, Chi.151491.13.7376.5323.06
2022• Trevor Lawrence, Jac.172421.47.4717.2921.811
2022Mac Jones, N.E.142141.00.797.0716.028
2022Zach Wilson, NYJ9188.67.7811.1113.831
2023Kenny Pickett, Pitt.12173.50.335.0811.629
2024• Bryce Young, Car.121961.25.7520.5019.815

—Ian Allan

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