The reports suggest it’s been a rough go for Caleb Williams in Chicago. Ben Johnson hasn’t yet been able to turn him around.
It’s early, of course. But Williams seems to be struggling with some of the same issues that plagued him last year, hanging onto the ball too long, missed opportunities and plays simply not being run quickly enough. Johnson benched the entire offense at one point.
Not that anybody should be pulling the plug on Williams just yet, but it’s a reminder that he’s one of just many quarterbacks who could potentially be a lot better this year. He’s a later-round prospect, rather than an up-and-comer who looks certain to take a big step forward – in there with the other second-year gamble, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix.
More often than not, those second-year dart throws miss. In the 32-team era, there have been 25 quarterbacks selected in the first round who finished with bottom-10 numbers in their first year. (Not cumulative numbers, but per-game stats, relative to other quarterbacks starting at least half the season).
FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS WITH BOTTOM-10 NUMBERS | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
2002 | David Carr, Hou. | 16 | 162 | .56 | .94 | 18 | .19 | 13.5 | 28 |
2002 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 12 | 187 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0 | .00 | 13.4 | 29 |
2003 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 9 | 139 | .78 | 1.00 | 7 | .00 | 11.6 | 31 |
2004 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 13 | 188 | 1.15 | .69 | 11 | .08 | 15.6 | 24 |
2008 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 16 | 186 | .88 | .75 | 11 | .13 | 14.8 | 26 |
2009 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 9 | 204 | 1.11 | 2.00 | 17 | .00 | 16.8 | 23 |
2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 15 | 163 | .80 | 1.33 | 7 | .20 | 13.5 | 28 |
2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 16 | 220 | 1.13 | .94 | 4 | .06 | 16.2 | 24 |
2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 14 | 154 | .86 | .79 | 7 | .00 | 11.8 | 33 |
2011 | Christian Ponder, Min. | 10 | 175 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 21 | .00 | 16.1 | 24 |
2012 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 15 | 226 | .93 | 1.13 | 7 | .00 | 15.8 | 27 |
2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 206 | .75 | .81 | 13 | .13 | 15.6 | 28 |
2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 10 | 197 | 1.10 | .90 | 19 | .20 | 17.7 | 25 |
2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 207 | .69 | 1.15 | 30 | .00 | 16.2 | 27 |
2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 236 | 1.00 | .88 | 9 | .13 | 17.8 | 27 |
2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 183 | .58 | .58 | 21 | .17 | 14.7 | 29 |
2018 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 13 | 172 | .85 | 1.00 | 10 | .00 | 13.1 | 32 |
2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 220 | 1.31 | 1.15 | 11 | .08 | 17.8 | 27 |
2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 9 | 201 | 1.22 | .56 | 12 | .33 | 18.4 | 29 |
2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 10 | 180 | .70 | .90 | 39 | .10 | 16.3 | 30 |
2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 17 | 224 | 1.29 | .76 | 8 | .00 | 17.1 | 26 |
2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 214 | .71 | 1.00 | 20 | .12 | 16.2 | 29 |
2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 13 | 180 | .69 | .85 | 14 | .31 | 15.2 | 31 |
2022 | Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | 12 | 190 | .58 | .50 | 19 | .08 | 14.5 | 30 |
2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | 16 | 180 | .69 | .63 | 16 | .00 | 13.6 | 28 |
2024 | Caleb Williams, Chi. | 17 | 208 | 1.18 | .35 | 29 | .00 | 18.4 | 22 |
Of those 25 quarterbacks, only eight (about 1 in 3) finished with top-20 per-game numbers the next season. Four moved up into the top 10 (and those guys are in old), while the other four ranked between 11th and 16th (tagged with dots).
To me, Williams looks like a decent dice roll as a second quarterback, but not a guy I would want to invest much in.
THOSE SAME QUARTERBACKS IN SECOND SEASONS | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
2003 | David Carr, Hou. | 11 | 181 | .82 | 1.09 | 11 | .18 | 14.5 | 26 |
2003 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 16 | 180 | 1.06 | 1.38 | 5 | .00 | 14.0 | 27 |
2004 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 16 | 160 | .81 | .69 | 12 | .06 | 12.9 | 31 |
2005 | • Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 12 | 199 | 1.42 | .75 | 6 | .25 | 17.7 | 15 |
2009 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 16 | 226 | 1.31 | .75 | 4 | .00 | 16.9 | 21 |
2010 | • Josh Freeman, T.B. | 16 | 216 | 1.56 | .38 | 23 | .00 | 19.4 | 16 |
2010 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 16 | 206 | 1.06 | .81 | 7 | .19 | 16.4 | 23 |
2011 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 10 | 216 | .60 | .60 | 3 | .00 | 13.5 | 32 |
2012 | Christian Ponder, Min. | 16 | 183 | 1.13 | .75 | 16 | .13 | 16.1 | 26 |
2012 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 10 | 166 | .90 | .60 | 6 | .00 | 12.9 | 31 |
2013 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 245 | 1.50 | 1.06 | 15 | .06 | 20.1 | 20 |
2013 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 5 | 304 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 8 | .00 | 22.5 | -- |
2014 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 4 | 210 | 1.25 | .75 | 13 | .25 | 18.3 | -- |
2015 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 16 | 277 | 2.19 | 1.13 | 19 | .13 | 25.4 | 2 |
2017 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 13 | 254 | 2.54 | .54 | 23 | .00 | 25.7 | 2 |
2018 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 14 | 230 | 1.71 | .86 | 30 | .21 | 23.2 | 10 |
2019 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 233 | 1.46 | 1.00 | 5 | .15 | 19.3 | 26 |
2019 | Josh Rosen, Mia. | 3 | 155 | .33 | 1.00 | 4 | .00 | 9.5 | -- |
2021 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 12 | 208 | 1.33 | .83 | 11 | .17 | 17.8 | 22 |
2022 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 15 | 149 | 1.13 | .73 | 76 | .53 | 23.0 | 6 |
2022 | • Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 242 | 1.47 | .47 | 17 | .29 | 21.8 | 11 |
2022 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 14 | 214 | 1.00 | .79 | 7 | .07 | 16.0 | 28 |
2022 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 9 | 188 | .67 | .78 | 11 | .11 | 13.8 | 31 |
2023 | Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | 12 | 173 | .50 | .33 | 5 | .08 | 11.6 | 29 |
2024 | • Bryce Young, Car. | 12 | 196 | 1.25 | .75 | 20 | .50 | 19.8 | 15 |
—Ian Allan