Fantasy Index

Around the NFL

Checking out Cam

Titans QB more likely to pay off in future

I haven't seen a lot of reports about Cam Ward at training camp thus far. The ones I've seen have been predictably uneven, like from beat writer Jim Wyatt.

"Has looked like a first-year player at times, while also providing some Wow moments," Wyatt wrote this week. It's kind of what you expect.

In the last 10 years, eight quarterbacks have been drafted at No. 1 overall. They usually start right away: Six of them have started at least 13 games their rookie seasons. One of the two exceptions (Joe Burrow; the other was Jared Goff) didn't only because he got hurt. Ward will be a Week 1 starter, but only two of those previous eight finished in the top 15 at the position as rookies. Those first-year numbers are shown below. (Scoring system: 4-point TD passes, 6-point TD runs, 1 point for every 20 passing and 10 rushing yards.)

TOP-PICK QBS, ROOKIE NUMBERS (2015-2024)
YearPlayerGSPassTDRunTDRk
2019Kyler Murray, Ari.1637222054446
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.16404222213613
2024Caleb Williams, Chi.17354120489016
2018Baker Mayfield, Cle.13372527131017
2021Trevor Lawrence, Jac.17364112334222
2023Bryce Young, Car.16287711253023
2020Joe Burrow, Cin.10268813142325
2016Jared Goff, LAR71089516137

So odds are heavily against Ward being usable in redraft leagues this season; best-case scenario is probably a No. 2, or serviceable starter in SuperFlex (and we're not ranking him even that high right now).

But in dynasty? Things start to look better. Six of those past eight quarterbacks have had at least one top-10 fantasy season; five have had multiple such campaigns. The two exceptions, Bryce Young and Caleb Williams, have only two and one seasons on their resumes so far, so there's plenty of time for them to get there.

TOP-PICK QBS, TOP-10 SEASONS (2015-2024)
YearPlayerGSPassTDRunTDRk
2020Kyler Murray, Ari.16397126819112
2019Jameis Winston, T.B.1651093325012
2024Joe Burrow, Cin.1749184320122
2024Baker Mayfield, T.B.1745004137833
2022Joe Burrow, Cin.1644753525754
2019Kyler Murray, Ari.1637222054446
2018Jared Goff, LAR1646883210826
2023Jared Goff, Det.174575302126
2024Jared Goff, Det.174629375606
2021Joe Burrow, Cin.1646113411827
2022Trevor Lawrence, Jac.1741132529157
2016Jameis Winston, T.B.1640902816519
2024Kyler Murray, Ari.1738512157259
2022Jared Goff, Det.174438297309
2023Trevor Lawrence, Jac.16401621339410

All of those players can't be deemed successes. Jameis Winston, as a for instance, did not live up to expectations for the Bucs. Jared Goff has been a lot better in Detroit's offense than he ever was with the Rams.

But in general, Titans fans have reason to think Ward will eventually be a successful player for them. (And Bears and Panthers fans have reason for optimism.) Odds just seem to be against it happening for Tennessee in 2025.

--Andy Richardson

To continue reading this article, please Login or Sign Up at the website
Login Sign Up

Fantasy Index