I haven't seen a lot of reports about Cam Ward at training camp thus far. The ones I've seen have been predictably uneven, like from beat writer Jim Wyatt.
"Has looked like a first-year player at times, while also providing some Wow moments," Wyatt wrote this week. It's kind of what you expect.
In the last 10 years, eight quarterbacks have been drafted at No. 1 overall. They usually start right away: Six of them have started at least 13 games their rookie seasons. One of the two exceptions (Joe Burrow; the other was Jared Goff) didn't only because he got hurt. Ward will be a Week 1 starter, but only two of those previous eight finished in the top 15 at the position as rookies. Those first-year numbers are shown below. (Scoring system: 4-point TD passes, 6-point TD runs, 1 point for every 20 passing and 10 rushing yards.)
TOP-PICK QBS, ROOKIE NUMBERS (2015-2024) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | GS | Pass | TD | Run | TD | Rk |
2019 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 16 | 3722 | 20 | 544 | 4 | 6 |
2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 4042 | 22 | 213 | 6 | 13 |
2024 | Caleb Williams, Chi. | 17 | 3541 | 20 | 489 | 0 | 16 |
2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 13 | 3725 | 27 | 131 | 0 | 17 |
2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 3641 | 12 | 334 | 2 | 22 |
2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | 16 | 2877 | 11 | 253 | 0 | 23 |
2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 10 | 2688 | 13 | 142 | 3 | 25 |
2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | 7 | 1089 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 37 |
So odds are heavily against Ward being usable in redraft leagues this season; best-case scenario is probably a No. 2, or serviceable starter in SuperFlex (and we're not ranking him even that high right now).
But in dynasty? Things start to look better. Six of those past eight quarterbacks have had at least one top-10 fantasy season; five have had multiple such campaigns. The two exceptions, Bryce Young and Caleb Williams, have only two and one seasons on their resumes so far, so there's plenty of time for them to get there.
TOP-PICK QBS, TOP-10 SEASONS (2015-2024) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | GS | Pass | TD | Run | TD | Rk |
2020 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 16 | 3971 | 26 | 819 | 11 | 2 |
2019 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 5109 | 33 | 250 | 1 | 2 |
2024 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 17 | 4918 | 43 | 201 | 2 | 2 |
2024 | Baker Mayfield, T.B. | 17 | 4500 | 41 | 378 | 3 | 3 |
2022 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 16 | 4475 | 35 | 257 | 5 | 4 |
2019 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 16 | 3722 | 20 | 544 | 4 | 6 |
2018 | Jared Goff, LAR | 16 | 4688 | 32 | 108 | 2 | 6 |
2023 | Jared Goff, Det. | 17 | 4575 | 30 | 21 | 2 | 6 |
2024 | Jared Goff, Det. | 17 | 4629 | 37 | 56 | 0 | 6 |
2021 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 16 | 4611 | 34 | 118 | 2 | 7 |
2022 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 4113 | 25 | 291 | 5 | 7 |
2016 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 4090 | 28 | 165 | 1 | 9 |
2024 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 17 | 3851 | 21 | 572 | 5 | 9 |
2022 | Jared Goff, Det. | 17 | 4438 | 29 | 73 | 0 | 9 |
2023 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 16 | 4016 | 21 | 339 | 4 | 10 |
All of those players can't be deemed successes. Jameis Winston, as a for instance, did not live up to expectations for the Bucs. Jared Goff has been a lot better in Detroit's offense than he ever was with the Rams.
But in general, Titans fans have reason to think Ward will eventually be a successful player for them. (And Bears and Panthers fans have reason for optimism.) Odds just seem to be against it happening for Tennessee in 2025.
--Andy Richardson