Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. Special Friday edition. Rome wasn't built in a day, but can it happen before the end of a second season? Biggest movers up the draft board. And solving the Jaxon Smith-Enigma of why Seattle's best receiver is so low in the rankings.
Question 1
Thirteen years ago (and already a longtime FFI reader), I drafted Arian Foster with the No. 1overall pick, and on the Round 2-3 swing pick I took a pair of second-year WRs with high draft captial coming off good rookie years, Julio Jones and A.J. Green. I rolled to the Super Bowl title. I think Marvin Harrison and Rome Odunze may fit that second-year, high-draft capital WR profile at discount prices. I'm not comparing Odunze to Julio or AJ Green, but why are you so low on him?
John Grupp (Pittsburgh, PA)
I hope I’m wrong, I’m a University of Washington alum, so my preference would be for Odunze (pictured) to light things up. But I don’t have much confidence that will happen. The Bears have a lot of different pass catchers. DJ Moore probably will lead them in catches, and they’ll be using a lot of three-receiver sets, with that third guy having a significant role. That’s Olamide Zaccheaus for now (he had the nice catch-and-run TD against the Bills), and they’ll transition to Luther Burden as they get him ready. They’ve got the two tight ends who’ll both be involved. And is this offense even taking a big step forward? With A.J. Green and Julio Jones, you were looking for them to move up from 17th and 21st among wide receivers as rookies (PPR scoring). With Odunze, he ranked 49th at that position last year. Different conversation.
Question 2
Can you share the 3 biggest movers up your draft board (1 qb, 1 rb , 1 wr) since the mag came out and why?
Eric Feingold (Garden City, NY)
I don’t see a key mover at quarterback. I see three veterans who’ve moved up a few spots (Mayfield, Goff, Prescott) as the rankings have settled. At running back, I see Chase Brown elevating up into the elite class as I’ve gotten more comfortable with him and his role in the offense. Biggest mover has been TreVeyon Henderson; he looks like he’ll be hitting some big plays, and I think he’ll be heavily involved as a pass catcher. At wide receiver, I’ll go with Calvin Ridley, on the strength of those 3 quick completions with Cam Ward in their preseason appearance together. I’ve never been much of a Ridley guy, but he had a couple of huge games last year. With Ward at quarterback, I think there’s going to be more ability to bring Ridley to life. I saw him as a depth guy before, now I’m thinking he’s pretty similar to guys like DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Question 3
Smith-Njigba played really well last year. Curious on why he's kind of low in your rankings. Is it because Darnold is too much of a question mark?
Tom Fini (Manhasset, NY)
I don’t think they’re going to be passing as much. With Klint Kubiak running the offense, I think they’re going to a run-oriented scheme.
Question 4
I got the dreaded #1 pick in a 2-QB league where 12/13 QBs will go first round. 6 points for a passing TD 8 points for a rushing TD so I have to take Josh Allen 1 and 2 RB at the turn right?
Tavis Medrano (Arcadia, CA)
Tavis Medrano: the one guy who got the No. 1 overall pick and complained about it. I’m not a big Josh Allen guy. He’s not putting up the same kind of pinball numbers he did back when Brian Daboll was calling the plays. Under Joe Brady, that’s become more of a conservative, run-oriented offense. The Bills finished below-average in passing yards last year. I would instead go with Joe Burrow. I think Lamar Jackson over Allen as well.
Question 5
Long-time reader, subscriber 88 or 89 I believe, thanks for your continued consistently great work. I really dislike the back half of draft slots this year, more than any I can remember recently, I have two 12 slot drafts coming up this weekend, how are you attacking the back end of drafts this year, RTSports scoring? Secondly, do you or would you draft any differently where the buy-in is more than a typical local league draft? For example, take more risks in an attempt to cash a bigger tournament check, or would you just follow your rankings, period?
Jay Harding (Oregon City, OR)
For me, I think I like the later picks in the first round a little more than usual. With your first pick, you’ve got a decent opportunity of getting a player who’s fallen a bit, depending on how you’ve stacked your board (and how they come off the board). And your second pick and also be a first-round kind of guy. Formats and drafts vary, but I would think the course might be to open with a couple of running backs. There will still be good receivers available in rounds 3-6. As far as how to pick them, I typical play is pretty conservative – stack a board, and then stick pretty close to it. But there is some sense to taking gambles at some point. You’ve got to hit on something at some point to separate from the pack (particularly if it’s a competition with 20-plus contestants). We did a draft a few weeks ago, and Christian McCaffrey went about 7th or 8th. That seemed way too early to me, but the owner of that team had good reasoning for his picks. He said something along the lines of, “if he stays healthy, he’ll be about the most productive running back and I’ll have a chance to win the whole thing. “
Question 6
Hello, I've been faithfully buying your magazine since the 1983 issue with Todd Blackledge on the cover. My question is: with so many seeming flyer possibilities on the horizon, would this finally be the year to let the TE position go and focus on the other positions in the draft or would that be taking too much of a chance?
Ed Burke (Clifton Heights, PA)
Todd Blackledge was drafted in 1983; seems unlikely that we would have put him on the cover that year. He also never threw more than 10 touchdowns in an NFL season, making it reasonable to doubt that he ever appeared on the cover at all. Methinks you are mixing him up with another quarterback from the Keystone state who was selected in the first round of the draft. But we digress. I think we’ve got two elite tight ends in drafts this year, with Brock Bowers and Trey McBride both in the mix for 100-plus catches. But after those guys, there’s a lot of parity. So makes sense, I’m thinking, to be patient if you’re not landing one of the elite options.
Question 7
Yeah that's me, the guy always among the first to grab a Defense. I am also aware that top 5 preseason choices usually have a high bust rate. I'll typically mix and match and carry two Hero defenses adjusting for bad matchups. While the league uses their priority chasing the flavor of the week I've been able to focus on longer-term picks.
James Baier ()
With defenses, I find myself drawn to the AFC South. The Titans are starting Cam Ward, and I believe he’ll be a serving up a healthy supply of picks – he was attempting a lot of higher-risk downfield throws in the preseason. Daniel Jones has long been a defense-friendly matchup. And both the Texans and Jaguars have lesser offensive lines. I selected the Texans defense in my last draft, in part because of those six matchups.