If you read this column with any regularity, you know that I watch almost no preseason. As Allen Iverson might say, we're talking about practice. I've seen maybe five plays this month. One was from a clip making fun of Daniel Jones missing a wide open receiver. One was Ashton Jeanty using his truck stick on a 49er defender. One was UDFA Beaux Collins of the Giants catching an 80-yard pass, even though the media gave Russell Wilson all the credit for the play. And one was an impressive touchdown catch by Cincinnati's Mitchell Tinsley at the end of the half on Monday night. Apparently, it was his second score of the game.
But in my mind, I didn't really see anything. It wasn't real. The game didn't count and everybody knew it. Pay too much attention to preseason highlights, and you'll ruin your draft.
Don't get me wrong: I totally buy into Daniel Jones missing open guys. Jeanty will be hard to bring down. And backups can still play professional football. But Collins might not even make the team, and even if something happens to Chase or Higgins, Tinsley won't be a highlight reel for fantasy teams. The plays might look great, but you're probably giving them too much weight when making evaluations.
That's not intentional, of course. We all know the games don't count, and preseason superstars often stand around on the sidelines during the real games. But your subconscious doesn't know that. This is the only football it's seen in months, so it will add emphasis and weight to what you see. Unfortunately, that emphasis might come out at the wrong time, say the last few rounds of your draft. When the seconds are ticking down, and your main roster is already filled out, your brain will nudge you with a fragment of something you saw a couple weeks back. Sometimes that's all it takes to hit the draft button and put someone on your team who doesn't belong there, at least not while better players are available.
At some point in deep drafts, every pick is a lottery pick. The talent is gone, and you're throwing darts at a dartboard. In that case, I guess that pick won't hurt more than any other. But I'd rather take a sure-fire kicker that might be a couple points better than my opponent's kicker each week than a guy who did something once when the starters were on the sidelines.
Sure, there are stories of someone scouting preseason games, making a shrewd pick in their draft and that guy helping carry the team to a title. OK. I also heard that Al Bundy once scored four touchdowns in a high school championship game. But you'll never hear someone admit they took a preseason star way too early, missed out on a solid player, ended up cutting the guy anyway and finished out of the playoffs. It happens way more often than the other scenario, but nobody talks about it.
Well, I'm talking about it. Every pick counts in your draft, even the late ones. You know you're going to get talented players in the early rounds. But the late rounds could provide real value that you won't find on the waiver wire. If you waste it on guys who only make plays in August, you're hurting your chances in December. If a guy is making plays and is a valuable backup, that's different. But you already know the important backups. I'm talking about the preseason difference-makers when none of it makes any difference. Don't let their meaningless performances creep into your head.
And if you think I'm wrong and it's important to note what happens in the pretend games, I have two names for you: Ian Allan and Andy Richardson. While I'm in some bar telling jokes to drunk people, they're watching and analyzing everything the preseason has to offer. Then they condense it and report it to us on this website and the weekly email updates. If something is worth your attention (and I admit that will happen occasionally), they'll let you know. If someone needs to be on your late-draft list, they'll tell you who and why. You'll get the information you need, you’ll save time, and your brain won't be saddled with the image of some guy in a football helmet making a great play. Win/win.
"Danny Dimes" misses open guys. Jeanty is for real. But the rest of it? Take it all with many grains of salt. If you're about to draft, good luck this week.
How much preseason do you watch? Does it help you on draft day? What are your takeaways so far this year? Share your thoughts below.