If you read this column with any regularity, you know that I watch almost no preseason. As Allen Iverson might say, we're talking about practice. I've seen maybe five plays this month. One was from a clip making fun of Daniel Jones missing a wide open receiver. One was Ashton Jeanty using his truck stick on a 49er defender. One was UDFA Beaux Collins of the Giants catching an 80-yard pass, even though the media gave Russell Wilson all the credit for the play. And one was an impressive touchdown catch by Cincinnati's Mitchell Tinsley at the end of the half on Monday night. Apparently, it was his second score of the game.
But in my mind, I didn't really see anything. It wasn't real. The game didn't count and everybody knew it. Pay too much attention to preseason highlights, and you'll ruin your draft.
Don't get me wrong: I totally buy into Daniel Jones missing open guys. Jeanty will be hard to bring down. And backups can still play professional football. But Collins might not even make the team, and even if something happens to Chase or Higgins, Tinsley won't be a highlight reel for fantasy teams. The plays might look great, but you're probably giving them too much weight when making evaluations.
That's not intentional, of course. We all know the games don't count, and preseason superstars often stand around on the sidelines during the real games. But your subconscious doesn't know that. This is the only football it's seen in months, so it will add emphasis and weight to what you see. Unfortunately, that emphasis might come out at the wrong time, say the last few rounds of your draft. When the seconds are ticking down, and your main roster is already filled out, your brain will nudge you with a fragment of something you saw a couple weeks back. Sometimes that's all it takes to hit the draft button and put someone on your team who doesn't belong there, at least not while better players are available.
At some point in deep drafts, every pick is a lottery pick. The talent is gone, and you're throwing darts at a dartboard. In that case, I guess that pick won't hurt more than any other. But I'd rather take a sure-fire kicker that might be a couple points better than my opponent's kicker each week than a guy who did something once when the starters were on the sidelines.
Sure, there are stories of someone scouting preseason games, making a shrewd pick in their draft and that guy helping carry the team to a title. OK. I also heard that Al Bundy once scored four touchdowns in a high school championship game. But you'll never hear someone admit they took a preseason star way too early, missed out on a solid player, ended up cutting the guy anyway and finished out of the playoffs. It happens way more often than the other scenario, but nobody talks about it.
Well, I'm talking about it. Every pick counts in your draft, even the late ones. You know you're going to get talented players in the early rounds. But the late rounds could provide real value that you won't find on the waiver wire. If you waste it on guys who only make plays in August, you're hurting your chances in December. If a guy is making plays and is a valuable backup, that's different. But you already know the important backups. I'm talking about the preseason difference-makers when none of it makes any difference. Don't let their meaningless performances creep into your head.
And if you think I'm wrong and it's important to note what happens in the pretend games, I have two names for you: Ian Allan and Andy Richardson. While I'm in some bar telling jokes to drunk people, they're watching and analyzing everything the preseason has to offer. Then they condense it and report it to us on this website and the weekly email updates. If something is worth your attention (and I admit that will happen occasionally), they'll let you know. If someone needs to be on your late-draft list, they'll tell you who and why. You'll get the information you need, you’ll save time, and your brain won't be saddled with the image of some guy in a football helmet making a great play. Win/win.
"Danny Dimes" misses open guys. Jeanty is for real. But the rest of it? Take it all with many grains of salt. If you're about to draft, good luck this week.
How much preseason do you watch? Does it help you on draft day? What are your takeaways so far this year? Share your thoughts below.
14 Reader Comments:
James Costello
Greg Resin
Richard Loppnow
This is a vital cultural fact all Americans should know. Well, we male ones, anyway. Check to see if your school system is teaching it, and if not, contact your local School Board immediately.
Ian Allan (Fantasy Index)
Sean Albright
Richard Loppnow
Andy Richardson (Fantasy Index)
Chuck Anderson
Rested players are assumed to be starters, or committee players. Jordan Mason played with starters in game two and was rested in game three. I am thinking he is getting playing time in real games and will have standalone value, along with handcuff potential.
Consistent first team reps could be an entrenched starter working on some specific plays or skills in a game simulation. But it can also mean a committee starter is getting enough reps to show he can do it and be ready when called upon for part-time or full-time work when a starter goes down. Coaches want to know who they can depend on to step up when needed. Getting occasional or consistent first-team reps can provide clues that the official depth charts may not reveal.
Chase Brown dominated reps and touches with the starters, including a one-yard TD on 4th down. This indicates that Brown should be a bellcow again and not split work with Perine or Tahj Brooks. Perine has some minimal value only in PPR leagues for me, Brooks is gaining trust from the coaches with first-team reps, but he will not have stand-alone value. He looks like a true handcuff on one of the best offenses in the game.
Dave Cohen
Richard Loppnow
Mark Rapley
Andy Richardson (Fantasy Index)
Chuck Anderson
Michael Murillo
Thanks for the comments and thoughts.
James, I absolutely have a team I support, and of course I enjoy watching football. This is just practice and talent evaluation. Last week, the Jaguars and Saints "game" ended in a tie. There was no overtime, because nobody cares who actually wins. When football starts, I absolutely plan to watch.
Richard, according to the fan wiki for Married With Children, Bundy's four touchdowns indeed occurred in the city championship game. An impressive accomplishment no matter when it occurred.
Ian and Andy have proven right here in the comments that they're on top on what's happening in the preseason. I trust them, so I feel like I'll be caught up on draft day. What I won't have is the image of third-stringers making highlight plays and clouding my judgment in the later rounds. I also save all the time watching meaningless games with players who won't be on the team in September. If you enjoy that, I won't judge you for it. But no matter what the league charges people to see it, I don't get as much out of it as a fan. It's not a real game. And as a fantasy manager, I think it hurts my judgment when I'm choosing players, so I'll wait for the real thing.
Again, thanks so much for the discussion. I truly appreciate people reading the columns.