I really blew it last year when it came to free agent running backs. I was convinced the likes of Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry would be way overvalued in drafts. They wouldn't be busts, but they wouldn't justify the draft capital required to get them. So I wisely stayed away.
Did I say "wisely?" I meant "foolishly."
I don't need to spell it out, but here goes: They were the top two runners in 2024, several hundred yards ahead of third place (Bijan Robinson). Barkley had more yards. Henry scored more touchdowns. They were the class of the league, and being wrong hurt me all season. And if not for a miracle named Tee Higgins in the championship game, it would have cost me a title, too.
Going with my gut burned me last season. And I’m still going to do it again this season.
If you have an upcoming draft, there's only so much more you can do to prepare. You've done the research. You have the lists. You might know where you're drafting, and you probably know your fellow managers. The one thing you should do is commit yourself to going with your gut, even when a cheat sheet tells you different.
Keep in mind that you're not really going against the cheat sheet if you understand how it works. For example, if you use the customized scoring tool on this website, you'll not only see a list tailored to your league but you'll see a player's projected points as well. And if you dig into the numbers, you'll see that many places on the list only vary by a few points. So while the difference between #14 and #21 seems meaningful on paper, it might just be a handful of points over the course of the season. The sheet is still doing the heavy lifting: It's letting you know which players are projected similarly. But it's a tool, not a set of commandments. If you can make an argument for why you like one guy a little better than the guy a few spots ahead, you owe it to your team to take them instead. Even if you can't make an argument for it and just have a hunch he'll be a better selection, make it. The cheat sheet is a trusted advisor, but in the end, it’s your call.
That philosophy puts you way ahead of the novice who just prints a sheet and follows it to the letter. If #21 is available, he gets picked before #23, no matter what. It seems silly to a lot of us, but I promise there are people who draft that way. It also puts you ahead of managers who are afraid of going against "conventional wisdom" for fear of getting mocked or laughed at for doing it. If you're winning games, nobody will remember that you didn't follow the expected order. It's your team, and you have to run it as you see fit. If you're not that high on Bucky Irving and think he's overvalued (I live in Tampa so what I'm writing is sacrilege, but it's just a hypothetical), you shouldn't feel any pressure to take him when a guy you like better is still there.
Now, there are limits to everything. No matter how much you like Davante Adams, you never take him ahead of Ja'Marr Chase. But the cheat sheet will make that clear as well, because the difference in projected points is significant. Even if you somehow like Adams better, you can probably end up with both by being patient. But in most cases, if your gut is telling you something, you owe it to yourself to listen.
Sometimes it won’t work out, and you have to accept that possibility. Your hunch might be wrong, but that’s the responsibility of running your team. And what would be worse is being right, going against your beliefs to play it safe, and watching someone else succeed with a player you knew you should have taken. That frustration will last all season long, believe me.
There’s not much advice left to give at the end of August. I’m sure you’re ready for what lies ahead. I just want to remind you to trust your gut because it just might be the key to a winning season. Good luck in your remaining drafts and auctions.
Has trusting your gut ever earned you a title? What was your biggest gamble that paid off, or burned you? Share your thoughts below.