It's looking like my mid-round selection of Joe Mixon in an experts draft is going to be a gamble that doesn't pay off. Mixon will miss at least the first four weeks, and no indication if he'll be available after that.
Houston signed Nick Chubb over the summer, and used him as its No. 1 in the preseason. He'll be starting in Week 1, and maybe indefinitely. Chubb is 29 years old and averaged just 3.3 yards per attempt last season. He attracted minimal interest as a free agent before signing with Houston for one year and $2.5 million, with $1.5 million in guarantees.
The key question is Was Chubb terrible last year because he was coming back from a devastating knee injury, and he'll be better a year removed from that injury, or was he terrible because he's a washed-up running back who turns 30 during the season, and it's over? He looked better in his one preseason appearance, against Carolina, carrying 5 times for 25 yards. A small sample set, but it's certainly possible he has another year left in him.
Houston's alternatives are Dameon Pierce or fourth-round rookie Woody Marks. Pierce had a standout rookie season in 2022, then flopped to just 2.9 yards per attempt in Year 2, without the excuse of coming off a knee injury. Looking at Pierce's gamelog from the 2023 season, ending with him being benched (and Mixon being brought in a few months later), is one of the most depressing stretches of games from a starting running back you'll ever see.
| DAMEON PIERCE GAME LOG, 2023 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Att | Run | TD | Avg |
| at Bal. | 11 | 38 | 0 | 3.5 |
| Ind. | 15 | 31 | 0 | 2.1 |
| at Jac. | 14 | 31 | 1 | 2.2 |
| Pit. | 24 | 81 | 0 | 3.4 |
| at Atl. | 20 | 66 | 0 | 3.3 |
| N.O. | 13 | 34 | 0 | 2.6 |
| at Car. | 12 | 46 | 0 | 3.8 |
| Jac. | 5 | 14 | 0 | 2.8 |
| Den. | 15 | 41 | 1 | 2.7 |
| at NYJ. | 4 | 9 | 0 | 2.3 |
| at Ten. | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3.0 |
| Cle. | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2.0 |
| Ten. | 8 | 16 | 0 | 2.0 |
You might not think it would be possible for an NFL running back to play 13 games, including double-digit carries as the starter in nine straight, and not average more than 3.8 yards per attempt in a single one of them -- more than 3.5 just once -- but Pierce achieved it.
Last year, Pierce showed up as averaging 7.3 yards per attempt, but might be best to set aside his Week 18 game (19 carries for 176 yards and a touchdown against a Titans team nailing down the top pick in the draft). Prior to that game Pierce carried 21 times for 117 yards and a touchdown on the season. Still pretty good (5.6 per attempt), so maybe he's better than he showed in 2023. But he's going to need Chubb to flop to be more than a change-of-pace.
Marks also seems like a guy to throw a late-round pick at, especially in PPR leagues. Combine numbers are nothing special (4.54), but he sure can catch the ball. In four of his five college seasons (first Mississippi State, then Southern Cal last year) he caught at least 47 passes. Neither Chubb nor Pierce is much of a pass catcher, both averaging under 1.5 receptions per game for their careers.
As for where to draft Chubb, the Thursday rankings will have our official take. Scanning yesterday's list, I think I'd be considering him about 30 backs into a draft (PPR), a little behind Tyrone Tracy, fairly similar to Javonte Williams. I don't think he'll be a workhorse runner, and I think he'll be replaced in passing situations. Maybe a little higher in standard systems. Marks would show up for me in the 40s at the position, amidst a clump of No. 2 backs. Should be available late in most drafts.
Mixon? He'll need to fall pretty far for me to take that gamble again. I have no idea when -- if -- he might play.
--Andy Richardson