We’ve been talking about Calvin Ridley for a month, nudging him up our board. But now the rubber meets the road. The real games are starting, and as luck would have it, the Titans are opening on the road against maybe the league’s best defense.
The Broncos were awfully tough last year. They led the league in sacks, and they’ve got the game’s best shutdown corner. No doubt Patrick Surtain will be following Ridley around for the bulk of the game.
That’s worrying. Surtain came up big against a lot of Ridley-type receivers last year. Especially early in the season. DK Metcalf, George Pickens and Mike Evans. None of those guys caught more than 3 passes against hm, and none reached 30 yards.
Later in the year, Drake London caught only 3 passes against Denver (albeit for 61 yards). Ja’Marr Chase caught 9 passes for 102 yards against Denver, but with no touchdowns (which was rare for him).
I’m definitely pushing Ridley down some on my board.
But consider the following table. It shows wide receivers against Denver last year. I omitted the Week 7 game at New Orleans (Surtain didn’t play in that one). And I left out the Week 18 game against KC backups.
Last year there were 25 wide receivers who started at least half the season and averaged more than 14 points in PPR leagues. For ballpark purposes, that the bar we’re trying to clear. It happened 11 times in Denver games (though this includes all wide receivers – not just guys Surtain was covering). I’ve got those guys in bold.
More notably, I have tagged with black dots 10 wide receivers who more look like comps for Ridley – clear No. 1 guys that would go into the games expecting to see plenty of Surtain.
That’s a subjective process. Khalil Shakir, as one example, led Buffalo in catches last year, but he’s primarily a slot receiver. I wouldn’t expect the Broncos would go into that game with the plan of trying to have Surtain cover Shakir. For the Bucs game, I guessed that Surtain more often would be on Evans rather than Godwin.
Regardless, the numbers are more prolific than I expected. Those guys averaged 5.6 caches for 81 yards, albeit with only one touchdown in 10 games.
We’re just starting the process of working through the Week 1 games. My early guess is that Ridley will be lower than usual, but not necessarily low enough that all fantasy teams will have the option of sticking in somebody else in his place.
| WIDE RECEIVERS AGAINST DENVER (2024) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk | Player | Team | Result | Tgt | No | Yds | TD | PPR |
| 1 | Tyler Lockett | at Sea. | W, 26-20 | 7 | 6 | 77 | 0 | 13.7 |
| 1 | • DK Metcalf | at Sea. | W, 26-20 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | at Sea. | W, 26-20 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 1 | Laviska Shenault | at Sea. | W, 26-20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 | Jake Bobo | at Sea. | W, 26-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dareke Young | at Sea. | W, 26-20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | • George Pickens | Pitt. | W, 13-6 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 4.9 |
| 2 | Van Jefferson | Pitt. | W, 13-6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 2 | Calvin Austin | Pitt. | W, 13-6 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1.6 |
| 2 | Scott Miller | Pitt. | W, 13-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Ben Skowronek | Pitt. | W, 13-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Chris Godwin | at T.B. | L, 7-26 | 9 | 6 | 53 | 1 | 17.3 |
| 3 | • Mike Evans | at T.B. | L, 7-26 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 3 | Jalen McMillan | at T.B. | L, 7-26 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1.6 |
| 3 | Trey Palmer | at T.B. | L, 7-26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Sterling Shepard | at T.B. | L, 7-26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Allen Lazard | at NYJ | L, 9-10 | 8 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 10.8 |
| 4 | Mike Williams | at NYJ | L, 9-10 | 5 | 4 | 67 | 0 | 10.7 |
| 4 | Garrett Wilson | at NYJ | L, 9-10 | 8 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 9.1 |
| 4 | Xavier Gipson | at NYJ | L, 9-10 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1.6 |
| 4 | Irvin Charles | at NYJ | L, 9-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | • Jakobi Meyers | L.V. | L, 18-34 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 0 | 13.2 |
| 5 | Tre Tucker | L.V. | L, 18-34 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 5 | DJ Turner | L.V. | L, 18-34 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2.2 |
| 5 | Alex Bachman | L.V. | L, 18-34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Ladd McConkey | LAC | W, 23-16 | 8 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 8.3 |
| 6 | Simi Fehoko | LAC | W, 23-16 | 4 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 6.4 |
| 6 | Josh Palmer | LAC | W, 23-16 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 6 | Quentin Johnston | LAC | W, 23-16 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 5.2 |
| 6 | Derius Davis | LAC | W, 23-16 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 |
| 8 | Jalen Coker | Car. | L, 14-28 | 6 | 4 | 78 | 1 | 17.8 |
| 8 | Xavier Legette | Car. | L, 14-28 | 7 | 4 | 34 | 1 | 13.4 |
| 8 | David Moore | Car. | L, 14-28 | 5 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 8 | Jonathan Mingo | Car. | L, 14-28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Zay Flowers | at Balt. | W, 41-10 | 6 | 5 | 127 | 2 | 29.7 |
| 9 | Rashod Bateman | at Balt. | W, 41-10 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 9 | Nelson Agholor | at Balt. | W, 41-10 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 9 | Tylan Wallace | at Balt. | W, 41-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Diontae Johnson | at Balt. | W, 41-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Devontez Walker | at Balt. | W, 41-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | DeAndre Hopkins | at K.C. | W, 16-14 | 5 | 4 | 56 | 0 | 9.6 |
| 10 | Justin Watson | at K.C. | W, 16-14 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 10 | Xavier Worthy | at K.C. | W, 16-14 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.1 |
| 10 | Mecole Hardman | at K.C. | W, 16-14 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 10 | Justyn Ross | at K.C. | W, 16-14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Ray-Ray McCloud | Atl. | L, 6-38 | 6 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 10.6 |
| 11 | • Drake London | Atl. | L, 6-38 | 7 | 3 | 61 | 0 | 9.1 |
| 11 | Darnell Mooney | Atl. | L, 6-38 | 4 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 11 | KhaDarel Hodge | Atl. | L, 6-38 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 4.2 |
| 11 | Casey Washington | Atl. | L, 6-38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | • Jakobi Meyers | at L.V. | L, 19-29 | 15 | 10 | 121 | 0 | 22.1 |
| 12 | Tre Tucker | at L.V. | L, 19-29 | 8 | 7 | 82 | 0 | 15.2 |
| 12 | DJ Turner | at L.V. | L, 19-29 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 12 | Ramel Keyton | at L.V. | L, 19-29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | • Jerry Jeudy | Cle. | L, 32-41 | 13 | 9 | 235 | 1 | 38.5 |
| 13 | Elijah Moore | Cle. | L, 32-41 | 14 | 8 | 111 | 0 | 19.1 |
| 13 | Michael Woods | Cle. | L, 32-41 | 5 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 13 | Jamari Thrash | Cle. | L, 32-41 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 13 | Kadarius Toney | Cle. | L, 32-41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Jaelon Darden | Cle. | L, 32-41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | • Michael Pittman | Ind. | L, 13-31 | 9 | 6 | 58 | 0 | 11.8 |
| 15 | Josh Downs | Ind. | L, 13-31 | 8 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 |
| 15 | Anthony Gould | Ind. | L, 13-31 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 3.3 |
| 15 | Alec Pierce | Ind. | L, 13-31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Adonai Mitchell | Ind. | L, 13-31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | • Ladd McConkey | at LAC | W, 34-27 | 6 | 6 | 87 | 0 | 14.7 |
| 16 | Derius Davis | at LAC | W, 34-27 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 | 11.1 |
| 16 | Josh Palmer | at LAC | W, 34-27 | 6 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 7.1 |
| 16 | Quentin Johnston | at LAC | W, 34-27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 4.8 |
| 16 | DJ Chark | at LAC | W, 34-27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Tee Higgins | at Cin. | W, 30-24 | 12 | 11 | 131 | 3 | 42.1 |
| 17 | • Ja'Marr Chase | at Cin. | W, 30-24 | 15 | 9 | 102 | 0 | 19.2 |
| 17 | Andrei Iosivas | at Cin. | W, 30-24 | 4 | 3 | 59 | 0 | 8.9 |
| 17 | Jermaine Burton | at Cin. | W, 30-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Isaiah Williams | at Cin. | W, 30-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Curtis Samuel | at Buff. | W, 31-7 | 3 | 3 | 68 | 1 | 15.8 |
| 19 | Khalil Shakir | at Buff. | W, 31-7 | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 12.1 |
| 19 | Mack Hollins | at Buff. | W, 31-7 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 19 | Amari Cooper | at Buff. | W, 31-7 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 2.8 |
| 19 | Keon Coleman | at Buff. | W, 31-7 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 |
—Ian Allan