I’m expecting Jacksonville to use a one-two punch of running backs. They might even work in one of their rookies. But I have interest in that backfield this week.
The Jaguars are at home, and they’re playing against a Carolina defense that was pretty awful last year. The Panthers allowed 180 rushing yards per game – 39 more than any other team. There were plenty of bad run defenses last year, and Carolina was a lot worse than all of them.
With Jacksonville, on the other hand, they’ve got Liam Coen coming in to run things. He worked wonders with the ground game in Tampa Bay, helping it climb from last to 4th in rushing yards – improved by 60 yards per game.
So when I’ve got a chance to use a Coen back against Carolina, I’m interested.
Jacksonville drafted Bhayshul (Rootin’) Tuten in the fourth round, but I don’t think he’ll be playing much. In the preseason, they were using Tank Bigsby (pictured) and Travis Etienne when the first-round offense was on the field. I think those will be their guys. Etienne is the better pass catcher, while Bigsby has more tackle-breaking ability.
The time-share dimension, of course, diminishes things. But there are only so many full-time backs out there. Assuming that Christian McCaffrey, Ashton Jeanty and Bijan Robinson are already on other rosters, we can get into considering these Jacksonville backs for a Week 1 plug-in start.
Last year, of course, was last year. Carolina gets Derek Brown back. The big tackle missed all of last year. He’ll help. But I still expect this will again be a bottom-5 run defense.
On this front, check out the chart below. It shows the 30 worst run defenses of the 32-team era. Actually, 32 teams – Carolina and Dallas from last year, plus 30 other teams. They’re ranked by per-game production, using 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards. Carolina grades out as the 3rd-worst defense.
Of these 30 defenses, half came back the next year and again ranked outside the top 25 in run defense. I’ve got those teams tagged with black dots.
Only three teams were able to completely flip things around, turning into top-10 run defenses. Five others finished above-average (ranking 12th to 16th).
| CRAPPY RUN DEFENSES SINCE 2002 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | Nxt Yr |
| 2008 | • Detroit | 536 | 2,754 | 5.1 | 31 | 26 |
| 2022 | Chicago | 542 | 2,674 | 4.9 | 31 | 1 |
| 2024 | Carolina | 592 | 3,057 | 5.2 | 24 | ? |
| 2019 | Carolina | 445 | 2,296 | 5.2 | 31 | 20 |
| 2016 | San Francisco | 548 | 2,654 | 4.8 | 25 | 21 |
| 2022 | Houston | 573 | 2,894 | 5.1 | 25 | 19 |
| 2011 | Tampa Bay | 498 | 2,497 | 5.0 | 26 | 6 |
| 2008 | • Kansas City | 509 | 2,543 | 5.0 | 25 | 29 |
| 2008 | • St. Louis | 501 | 2,475 | 4.9 | 26 | 31 |
| 2010 | Denver | 531 | 2,473 | 4.7 | 26 | 20 |
| 2020 | • Houston | 493 | 2,564 | 5.2 | 24 | 31 |
| 2018 | Arizona | 510 | 2,479 | 4.9 | 25 | 13 |
| 2006 | Indianapolis | 519 | 2,768 | 5.3 | 20 | 12 |
| 2008 | • Oakland | 542 | 2,555 | 4.7 | 23 | 32 |
| 2009 | • Oakland | 548 | 2,488 | 4.5 | 24 | 26 |
| 2013 | Chicago | 483 | 2,583 | 5.3 | 22 | 15 |
| 2008 | Denver | 469 | 2,337 | 5.0 | 26 | 18 |
| 2020 | • Jacksonville | 517 | 2,452 | 4.7 | 23 | 28 |
| 2010 | • Buffalo | 571 | 2,714 | 4.8 | 18 | 29 |
| 2021 | NY Jets | 525 | 2,351 | 4.5 | 28 | 16 |
| 2020 | • Detroit | 487 | 2,158 | 4.4 | 27 | 27 |
| 2007 | • Oakland | 486 | 2,334 | 4.8 | 24 | 29 |
| 2003 | • Oakland | 544 | 2,510 | 4.6 | 21 | 30 |
| 2020 | Dallas | 510 | 2,541 | 5.0 | 20 | 13 |
| 2012 | Buffalo | 470 | 2,333 | 5.0 | 23 | 21 |
| 2021 | • Houston | 523 | 2,418 | 4.6 | 25 | 31 |
| 2009 | • Buffalo | 535 | 2,501 | 4.7 | 19 | 31 |
| 2009 | St. Louis | 500 | 2,201 | 4.4 | 24 | 7 |
| 2004 | Cleveland | 532 | 2,314 | 4.3 | 22 | 22 |
| 2019 | • Jacksonville | 435 | 2,229 | 5.1 | 23 | 31 |
| 2024 | Dallas | 482 | 2,331 | 4.8 | 25 | ? |
| 2022 | • Seattle | 525 | 2,554 | 4.9 | 21 | 32 |
—Ian Allan