That’s a rough start for Brian Thomas. He looked like an emerging star at the end of last season, with 41 catches in his last five games. But he’s been unable to get things going.
He caught only 2 of the 6 passes thrown his way against Houston. He went up to high-point the ball over Derek Stingley in the first quarter, for what would have been a nice catch, but he failed to properly secure the ball (it wasn’t knocked out, he just bumbled it away). And there was a key play in Cincinnati where it looked like he didn’t want to go up for a ball.
It looks like he’s lost confidence. He’s not the same guy he was at the end of last year. Why that occurred, I have no idea. They’ve got a new offense, so maybe he’s thinking too much. Remarkably, three other wide receivers on Jacksonville’s roster have caught more passes.
Through three weeks, Thomas has caught only 7 of the 25 passes thrown his way.
I started playing around with the numbers some on this, using the search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com. Thomas has caught only 28 percent of his targets. Not since 2005 (Bryant Johnson) has a receiver seen 20 targets in the first three weeks of a season and finished with a lower catch rate.
In the last 15 years, only 17 wide receivers with at least 20 targets have failed to catch at least 40 percent of those throws. Thomas is the worst of those guys. Another AFC South receiver, Calvin Ridley (8 of 21) makes the list.
| LOWEST CATCH RATES THROUGH WEEK 3 (since 2010) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | No | Yards | Avg | TD | Pct |
| 2025 | Brian Thomas, Jac. | 25 | 7 | 115 | 16.4 | 0 | 28.0% |
| 2019 | DeVante Parker, Mia. | 20 | 6 | 131 | 21.8 | 0 | 30.0% |
| 2021 | DJ Chark, Jac. | 22 | 7 | 154 | 22.0 | 2 | 31.8% |
| 2013 | Kenbrell Thompkins, N.E. | 28 | 9 | 130 | 14.4 | 2 | 32.1% |
| 2015 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 20 | 7 | 101 | 14.4 | 0 | 35.0% |
| 2010 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 34 | 12 | 152 | 12.7 | 2 | 35.3% |
| 2023 | Tee Higgins, Cin. | 28 | 10 | 110 | 11.0 | 2 | 35.7% |
| 2013 | Greg Little, Cle. | 30 | 11 | 78 | 7.1 | 0 | 36.7% |
| 2012 | Vincent Jackson, T.B. | 27 | 10 | 204 | 20.4 | 1 | 37.0% |
| 2016 | Michael Floyd, Ari. | 24 | 9 | 134 | 14.9 | 1 | 37.5% |
| 2025 | Calvin Ridley, Ten. | 21 | 8 | 111 | 13.9 | 0 | 38.1% |
| 2014 | Justin Hunter, Ten. | 21 | 8 | 126 | 15.8 | 0 | 38.1% |
| 2010 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 26 | 10 | 140 | 14.0 | 0 | 38.5% |
| 2016 | Torrey Smith, S.F. | 20 | 8 | 103 | 12.9 | 1 | 40.0% |
| 2014 | Vincent Jackson, T.B. | 25 | 10 | 102 | 10.2 | 1 | 40.0% |
| 2014 | Denarius Moore, Oak. | 20 | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 0 | 40.0% |
| 2011 | Austin Collie, Ind. | 20 | 8 | 53 | 6.6 | 0 | 40.0% |
The question, then, becomes are these guys simply garbage? Will they never become viable players again? Or will these teams and players over time improve, adjusting routes and play calling – weeding out the routes that aren’t working?
On this front, we can look at numbers from the past – see what happened to other similar receivers in the past. That provides some sense of how often turnarounds occur.
Consider the following chart. It shows wide receivers in the last 10 years who saw a lot of pass attempts in the first three weeks (at least 20 targets) but caught less than half of those throws. There are four 2025 players – Thomas, Ridley, Davante Adams and Jerry Jeudy – and there are 33 other players.
With those other 33 players, we can look at how they performed in their remaining games. That’s useful information.
Of those 33, all but two had higher catch rates in their remaining 13-14 games. All but four, in fact, caught over 50 percent of their remaining targets. So I wouldn’t worry about Thomas and Ridley continuing to catch less than 40 percent of what’s thrown their way.
But I don’t see a lot of players who completely turned things around, finishing with great numbers (for fantasy purposes). I see only four who ended up ranking between 6th and 12th in production (PPR scoring). I’ve got those guys tagged with double dots. And I see another five who ranked between 20th and 25th (single dots).
In the chart, guys with the lowest catches rates (Weeks 1-3) are listed first.
If you’re holding Thomas, I think the hope is he can kind of turn things around somewhat, finishing with top-25 numbers. Ridley looks like a lesser version of the same kind of player (maybe he can become a top-30 receiver for the second half of the season).
| SUB-50 PERCENT RECEIVERS TRYING TO TURN THINGS AROUND | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pre | Post | Tgt | No | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2025 | Brian Thomas, Jac. | 28.0% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2019 | •• DeVante Parker, Mia. | 30.0% | 61.1% | 128 | 72 | 1202 | 9 | 246.2 | 11 |
| 2021 | DJ Chark, Jac. | 31.8% | -- | 22 | 7 | 154 | 2 | 34.4 | 136 |
| 2015 | • Mike Evans, T.B. | 35.0% | 52.3% | 148 | 74 | 1206 | 3 | 212.6 | 22 |
| 2023 | Tee Higgins, Cin. | 35.7% | 66.7% | 76 | 42 | 656 | 5 | 137.6 | 51 |
| 2016 | Michael Floyd, Ari.-N.E. | 37.5% | 53.8% | 76 | 37 | 488 | 5 | 115.8 | 69 |
| 2025 | Calvin Ridley, Ten. | 38.1% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2016 | Torrey Smith, S.F. | 40.0% | 41.4% | 49 | 20 | 267 | 3 | 64.7 | 100 |
| 2015 | •• Allen Robinson, Jac. | 40.7% | 55.6% | 151 | 80 | 1400 | 14 | 304.0 | 6 |
| 2017 | • Dez Bryant, Dall. | 40.7% | 55.2% | 132 | 69 | 838 | 6 | 188.4 | 24 |
| 2016 | Vincent Jackson, T.B. | 40.9% | 60.0% | 32 | 15 | 173 | 0 | 32.3 | 131 |
| 2024 | Amari Cooper, Cle.-Buff. | 41.4% | 57.1% | 85 | 44 | 547 | 4 | 122.7 | 63 |
| 2016 | Eric Decker, NYJ | 42.9% | -- | 21 | 9 | 194 | 2 | 40.4 | 122 |
| 2019 | •• Jarvis Landry, Cle. | 43.5% | 63.5% | 138 | 83 | 1174 | 6 | 237.4 | 12 |
| 2017 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 43.5% | 52.1% | 96 | 48 | 680 | 7 | 158.4 | 36 |
| 2024 | •• Courtland Sutton, Den. | 44.4% | 63.9% | 135 | 81 | 1081 | 8 | 242.6 | 11 |
| 2016 | Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 44.4% | 46.5% | 128 | 59 | 788 | 3 | 155.8 | 49 |
| 2022 | Brandin Cooks, Hou. | 44.8% | 68.8% | 93 | 57 | 699 | 3 | 145.6 | 49 |
| 2025 | Davante Adams, LAR | 44.8% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2023 | • Jayden Reed, G.B. | 45.0% | 74.3% | 94 | 64 | 793 | 8 | 217.2 | 25 |
| 2017 | DeSean Jackson, T.B. | 45.0% | 58.6% | 90 | 50 | 668 | 3 | 138.6 | 45 |
| 2024 | Rome Odunze, Chi. | 45.0% | 55.6% | 101 | 54 | 734 | 3 | 146.9 | 49 |
| 2015 | Vincent Jackson, T.B. | 45.0% | 57.1% | 62 | 33 | 543 | 3 | 107.3 | 66 |
| 2016 | • Terrelle Pryor, Cle. | 45.2% | 57.8% | 140 | 77 | 1007 | 4 | 213.9 | 20 |
| 2024 | Marvin Harrison, Ari. | 45.5% | 55.3% | 116 | 62 | 885 | 8 | 198.5 | 30 |
| 2015 | Ted Ginn, Car. | 45.5% | 45.3% | 97 | 44 | 739 | 10 | 183.9 | 34 |
| 2015 | Nate Washington, Hou. | 46.4% | 51.5% | 94 | 47 | 658 | 4 | 136.8 | 49 |
| 2020 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 46.4% | 44.7% | 104 | 47 | 523 | 2 | 111.3 | 68 |
| 2021 | Allen Robinson, Chi. | 47.6% | 62.2% | 66 | 38 | 410 | 1 | 87.0 | 81 |
| 2025 | Jerry Jeudy, Cle. | 47.6% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2024 | • Jameson Williams, Det. | 47.8% | 69.1% | 91 | 58 | 1001 | 7 | 212.2 | 22 |
| 2016 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 47.8% | 53.4% | 96 | 50 | 796 | 8 | 182.1 | 39 |
| 2017 | Marqise Lee, Jac. | 47.8% | 61.6% | 96 | 56 | 702 | 3 | 147.9 | 40 |
| 2019 | Preston Williams, Mia. | 47.8% | 56.8% | 60 | 32 | 428 | 3 | 92.8 | 77 |
| 2016 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 48.0% | 52.2% | 92 | 47 | 635 | 2 | 128.2 | 61 |
| 2016 | Kevin White, Chi. | 48.1% | 66.7% | 36 | 19 | 187 | 0 | 38.6 | 123 |
| 2016 | Tavon Austin, LAR | 48.3% | 57.1% | 106 | 58 | 509 | 3 | 148.8 | 52 |
—Ian Allan