Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Will Tetairoa McMillan step up his game? Expectations for Christian Watson. What's wrong with New England's running game? And rookie running backs figuring things out late in the year.
Question 1
What is your assessment of Tetairoa McMillan so far? I have been hit hard by injuries this season and hoped he's at least be a viable backup. For such a potentially dominant player they don't seem to feature him enough in their offense. I know he's only a rookie, but to me he seems unstartable at this point. Thanks for your consistently amazing work over the last thirty-plus years!
Russell Pitts (Fallbrook, CA)
I don’t think anybody in Carolina is regretting selecting McMillan with a top-10 pick. He looks like he’s for real to me. He moves unusually well with a big man. He’s rangy, and he plucks the ball. Check out this cut up from YouTube. Check out the red zone catch on the sideline, where he turns and bursts around the defender. He does that all the time. And there’s a one-handed catch where he comes down out of bounds. He’s a big-time receiver. I think it’s just a matter of allowing it to happen. While he hasn’t come anywhere close to his ceiling yet, it’s not as if he’s a non-factor. He’s on pace for 73 catches, 1,003 yards and 5 TDs. Patience.
Question 2
Christian Watson GB WR is close to a return. Thoughts on picking him up? What receivers do you see his production comparable to for the remainder of the season?
Edward Oliver (Chaumont, NY)
I’m not a big Watson fan. I love his game – the size and big-play ability – but I have zero confidence there will be any effort to fully tap into his talents. They used him almost exclusively as a deep threat last year, with only 29 catches in 15 games. I imagine we’ll be seeing something similar, with Watson coming back from an injury and the Packers having a lot of other options. Matthew Golden and Romeo Doubs will continue to be heavily involved, and Jayden Reed will be coming back. They’ve got other guys who’ll contribute as well – Dontayvion Wicks, Savion Williams, Malik Heath. And an up-and-coming tight end. I don’t see a scenario where Watson gets to a point where I could put him on the field, thinking I had a top-30 receiver.
Question 3
What is your diagnosis for why the Patriots' run game is so anemic? Is it Offensive Line injuries or poorer run blocking? Is it the way the game scripts have just unfolded (falling behind early)? Are Henderson or Stevens playing through injuries? Are both RBs just playing poorly?
Andrew Napoli (Woodbridge, VA)
You jinxed them, with Stevenson running for a season-high 88 yards on Sunday. That was against Tennessee, of course, so perhaps deserves an asterisk. Stevenson’s other good game also came against lesser competition (Miami). He’s averaged only 21 rushing yards in his other five games, plodding along at 2.6 per attempt (in those five down games). I listen to some of the radio bits coming out of Boston. They’re of the opinion that the offensive line is at fault. And Tom Curran will point out that Stevenson has been outplayed by his backup in each of the last two seasons. But the arrow is pointed up for that offense, and with a softer schedule. I imagine the offensive line will improve with time on task. I expect Stevenson will be more productive and effective in the remaining 10 games.
Question 4
Been struggling to add a decent QB since Burrow went down. Had Fields as a backup, tried Geno, added Penix. All bad obviously. Can't see going Stroud. It's down to Flacco or Rodgers at this point. Who you like better the rest of the way?
Matt Morse (Glennallen, AK)
I have been mulling whether to add Flacco as a third quarterback. He was very impressive against the Steelers, passing for 342 yards and 3 TDs. To me, it looks like he could be a poor mans’ Joe Burrow for next couple of months. Jake Browning had a decent run in that offense two years ago, averaging 267 passing yards in seven starts, with 11 touchdowns. To me, it looks like Flacco could be an even better version of that same kind of player.
Question 5
It's anecdotal, but it seems to me as though rookies who don't catch fire immediately often have a big increase in usage and seem to blossom right after their team's bye week. Maybe, it's the extra week of preparation. Maybe, it's the coaching staff feeling more comfortable trusting them. Maybe, it's just my perception. Is there any data to back this up? And are there any rookies we should anticipate big post-bye jumps from this season?
Geoff Maleman (Los Angeles, CA)
Ten teams have byes the next two weeks. I don’t see any of them elevating a rookie running back into a starting role coming out of their byes. We can bookmark Bhayshul Tuten as a test case. He’s averaging 4.6 carries; let’s see if he starts spelling Travis Etienne more often. But let’s change the subject a little bit and look at the position in this way. If We call up the best rookie running backs games of the last 10 years, a lot more of them came later in the year. Unscientifically, I tossed out team’s 16th and 17th games (since some teams will be experimenting at that time). We can then look at the best remaining games, making not of when they occurred. For the top 50 rookie running back games, I see only 12 that occurred in the first five weeks of the season (tagged with dots in the chart below). I see 21 – almost twice as many – that occurred in Weeks 11-15 (and I’ve got them in bold). That leaves 17 occurring in the middle third (Weeks 6-10). I checked the numbers for the top 100, and they’re similar. Going up to 102 backs (to account for players being tie), I see only 24 in the first third, but 41 in the final third. (And 37 in the middle third). In the chart below, points are standard rather than PPR, but I imagine the results would be similar either way.
TOP 50 ROOKIE RUNNING BACK GAMES (last 10 yrs) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Wk | Opp | Result | Points |
2023 | • DeVon Achane, Mia. | 3 | Den. | W, 70-20 | 47.3 |
2015 | David Johnson, Ari. | 14 | at Phil. | W, 40-17 | 40.9 |
2017 | • Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 1 | at N.E. | W, 42-27 | 40.6 |
2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 9 | at Pitt. | W, 35-30 | 38.9 |
2015 | Thomas Rawls, Sea. | 10 | S.F. | W, 29-13 | 37.5 |
2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 10 | T.B. | W, 38-35 | 33.2 |
2018 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 10 | Atl. | W, 28-16 | 32.9 |
2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 14 | LAC | W, 30-13 | 32.6 |
2016 | Robert Kelley, Was. | 10 | G.B. | W, 42-24 | 31.7 |
2020 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | 11 | at Dall. | W, 41-16 | 31.6 |
2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 11 | at LAR | L, 20-26 | 30.8 |
2017 | • Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 5 | at Pitt. | W, 30-9 | 30.4 |
2015 | Jeremy Langford, Chi. | 9 | at St.L. | W, 37-13 | 30.2 |
2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 12 | S.F. | W, 26-6 | 29.7 |
2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 14 | at Was. | W, 37-27 | 29.2 |
2016 | • Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 5 | Cin. | W, 28-14 | 29.1 |
2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 6 | Phil. | L, 13-34 | 28.9 |
2022 | Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 7 | at LAC | W, 37-23 | 28.7 |
2020 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 13 | at L.V. | W, 44-27 | 28.5 |
2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 6 | Cle. | W, 24-6 | 28.3 |
2018 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 12 | at Cin. | W, 24-10 | 27.9 |
2020 | James Robinson, Jac. | 7 | at LAC | L, 29-39 | 27.7 |
2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 13 | Det. | W, 21-14 | 26.7 |
2019 | • Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 5 | Chi. | W, 24-21 | 26.3 |
2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 8 | Min. | W, 20-10 | 26.2 |
2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 11 | at Phil. | L, 22-25 | 26.2 |
2022 | • Breece Hall, NYJ | 5 | Mia. | W, 40-17 | 25.7 |
2019 | Derrius Guice, Was. | 12 | at Car. | W, 29-21 | 25.7 |
2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 13 | at Was. | W, 40-16 | 25.7 |
2017 | Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 11 | at Pitt. | L, 28-31 | 25.5 |
2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 8 | T.B. | W, 30-10 | 25.2 |
2020 | • James Robinson, Jac. | 3 | Mia. | L, 13-31 | 24.9 |
2018 | • Saquon Barkley, NYG | 5 | at Car. | L, 31-33 | 24.9 |
2023 | Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 8 | L.V. | W, 26-14 | 24.9 |
2022 | Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 9 | at Ari. | W, 31-21 | 24.9 |
2020 | AJ Dillon, G.B. | 15 | Ten. | W, 40-14 | 24.9 |
2018 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 11 | at Cin. | W, 35-20 | 24.8 |
2024 | Isaac Guerendo, S.F. | 13 | Chi. | W, 38-13 | 24.8 |
2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 14 | T.B. | W, 26-20 | 24.8 |
2015 | Matt Jones, Was. | 9 | N.O. | W, 47-14 | 24.7 |
2015 | • Matt Jones, Was. | 2 | St.L. | W, 24-10 | 24.6 |
2017 | Corey Clement, Phil. | 9 | Den. | W, 51-23 | 24.6 |
2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 12 | Car. | W, 31-21 | 24.6 |
2024 | Bucky Irving, T.B. | 12 | at Car. | W, 26-23 | 24.5 |
2017 | • Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 3 | at LAC | W, 24-10 | 24.3 |
2020 | • D'Andre Swift, Det. | 5 | at Jac. | W, 34-16 | 24.3 |
2023 | Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 11 | N.O. | W, 24-15 | 24.3 |
2023 | • DeVon Achane, Mia. | 4 | at Buff. | L, 20-48 | 24.0 |
2019 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 8 | Det. | W, 31-24 | 24.0 |
2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 11 | Was. | W, 31-26 | 24.0 |
Question 6
I might have the record for lack of points from QB through 7 weeks. I am averaging a whopping 10 pts from a combination of Burrow, D.Jones, Herbert, Stafford and C.Williams. I reckon it’s a lot of bad luck, but should I just start Herbert (who I traded for) and forget about it? Weekly rankings have really hurt me last two weeks going for the streamer in a supposedly good matchup. C. Williams frankly looks lost at times so was surprised to see him so high in Redrafter but I’ll probably want to play him with the easy schedule ahead.
Mitchell Ross (Westport, CT)
Herbert is probably the safest choice most weeks. The Chargers can’t really run the ball, turning him into kind of a one-man offense most weeks. The only worry is running into defenses where the pass protection simply isn’t good enough (as demonstrated against the Giants). They’ll be getting Joe Alt back soon, which will help. And Herbert is running more now than he has in the past. I would be nervous about starting him in Arrowhead late in the year, but otherwise he looks like a set-it-and-forget-it kind of guy. The Chargers have scored all but 2 of their touchdowns on pass plays.