Fantasy Index

Factoid

The great kickoff experiment

Returns up, touchdowns down with new rules

The new kickoff rule hasn’t gone quite like I expected. Returns are up, and long returns are up, but touchdowns are down.

Teams are returning over twice as many of the kickoffs, which is as expected (with increased penalties for touchbacks, teams don’t want opponents getting to start at the 35-yard line – they’re putting the ball in play.

And I’ve seen plenty of good returns (guys breaking them for 40-plus yards). The average kickoff return length is 25.8 yards, which is the 2nd-highest in the last 20 years. That's happened despite just 2 touchdowns (which add to the average). Antonio Gibson did it earlier in the year for New England, and Charlie Jones did it today for the Bengals.

I would have thought we’d have a half dozen more touchdowns on kickoff returns by this time.

I’m not sure why this is happening. Perhaps with the old-style returns, there was more ability of the returner to get by that initial wave and then take it to the house. With the new kickoffs, the coverage team isn’t building up as much speed. They’ve apparently got more ability to contain.

That’s a theory, anyway. It doesn’t explain why returned are going over 2 yards longer than in most of the last 20 years.

(In chart below, I don’t yet have the 2025 numbers through Week 9 – you’re seeing the total number of returns through Week 8, along with the number of touchdowns through Week 9.)

But you get the idea. Looks like we’re headed for about 2,000 returns, but maybe with only 3-5 TDs.

LEAGUE KICKOFF RETURN NUMBERS
YearReturnsAvgTD
2002220521.817
2003216121.613
2004215521.717
2005213722.312
2006203722.59
2007207422.625
2008211422.813
2009200422.618
2010203322.323
2011137523.89
2012139523.613
2013128923.47
2014122623.86
2015108023.67
2016103521.97
2017103621.67
201897022.95
201993822.57
202099222.57
2021110122.29
2022101122.96
202358723.04
202492027.67
2025109025.82

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index