SEATTLE (at Car.): This looks like an average situation for Seattle’s offense. Carolina has tended to play better at home (where they’ve blown out Atlanta and beaten the Rams, Bucs and Cowboys) but it’s a middle-of-the-pack defense across the board – run, pass, yards, points.
**This snippet was first published on December 24.
The Seahawks have had some misfires of late, with
no touchdowns against the Colts and only one against Minnesota, but they
nonetheless rank 3rd in scoring. It's an offense that averages 2.7 touchdowns
for the season or 2.5 if looking at just the last 10 games. This is the kind of
range they should be falling in. Some worry about West Coast teams having to
travel across the country, but it hasn’t been an issue for the Seahawks.
They’re 5-0 in the Eastern time zone this year, and they were 3-1 last year
(with the only loss a Monday night game at Detroit).
It’s a reasonable enough
matchup for the running game, where Kenneth Walker and Zach
Charbonnet operate as a one-two punch. Carolina has been average against
the run – below-average if adjusting for their best games coming back in
October, when they held Miami and Dallas to 19 and 31 rushing yards. More
recently, the Rams and 49ers both finished close to 150 rushing yards. So no
reason to worry about these backs coming in much lower than what they do usually.
Walker in his last 10 games has averaged 51 rushing and 18 receiving yards,
with 2 TDs. Charbonnet in those games has averaged 41 rushing and 9 receiving
yards, with 6 TDs. (Charbonnet is more of a thumper, so they tend to plug him
in for goal-line plays.)
We’re projecting Sam Darnold a little lower
than you might expect. He's 12-3 as a starter – the first quarterback to win 12
games in back-to-back seasons with different teams – but he’s looked a little
shaky of late. He hasn’t thrown any touchdowns in three of his last six games.
They tried to protect him from himself last week, limiting his role. He threw 2
interceptions in that game but salvaged a stat line with 2 late touchdowns. He’s
averaged 246 passing yards in his last 10, with 15 touchdowns, but that seems a
little high. Carolina ranks 14th against the pass, and only seven teams have
allowed fewer touchdown passes. Darnold has above-average mobility but isn’t
using it much, averaging 6 rushing yards, with no touchdowns.
It’s a
below-average situation for Jaxon Smith-Njigba in that Carolina has been
above-average against wide receivers. Puka Nacua is a similar kind of wide
receiver, and he posted his worst numbers against this defense (6 catches for
72 yards, with no touchdowns). That’s after setting aside a game Nacua left
early. But regardless, even in a down week, JSN grades out higher than all but
the very best receiving prospects. He’s leading the league in receiving yards,
and he’s been awfully steady. The Vikings held him to 2 catches for 23 yards
and he caught only 4 passes for 79 yards at Arizona, but he’s gone over 90
yards against every other opponent. And Smith-Njigba has caught 10 of the
team’s 25 TD passes.
For a tight end, AJ Barner is an above-average
scorer. He’s caught 5 TDs, and he’s also run for a touchdown. (He’s their Tush
Push guy – successful on 9 of 10 carries, including one at the goal line.) But
all but one of his touchdown catches came in the first five weeks. And he’s not
heavily involved in the passing game in general. He’s averaging 3.1 catches per
week, and that average drops to 2.3 if you set aside his 10- and 7-catch games
against Jacksonville and Washington.
Cooper Kupp isn’t heavily used.
He’s averaged 3.1 catches for 40 yards in 14 games, with 2 TDs. If you start
him, it would be with the hope that he’ll catch about 4 passes and perhaps
something around the goal line. He caught a 2-point conversion last week. But
the odds of that happening aren’t great.
Rashid Shaheed has more
big-play potential. He helped flip the game in the fourth quarter last week
with a punt return touchdown and a 31-yard gain on an end-around. He didn’t
actually catch a pass in that game (he had only one throw in his direction) but
Shaheed has come on of late, with 9 catches for 141 yards in his previous two
games. He scored on a kickoff return at Atlanta three weeks ago, and he's run
the ball 7 times in his seven games with the team.
Tory Horton is
eligible to come off IR, but the Seahawks weren’t ready to make that move last
week. He’s scored 6 TDs in eight games, but when he returns, it likely will be
in a diminished role. They’ve got Shaheed now, which should relegate Horton to
spot duty as a fourth receiver.
There’s nothing too notable about the matchup
for the Seahawks Defense, with Carolina close to average in allowing
sacks and turnovers. But it’s a unit that’s been making plays, with 42 sacks,
16 interceptions and 4 touchdowns. Additionally, there have been 3 touchdowns
on kick returns, including two by Rashid Shaheed in the last three games.
Carolina this year has allowed 2 touchdowns on returns – one on a fumble (after
a sack), the other on a punt return.
Jason Myers comes off a
season-low 2 points (with the Seahawks attempting 2-point conversions after
three touchdowns last week), but he’s been way to productive to even consider
sitting down for anything other than another elite option. Myers scored at
least 12 points in each of his previous six games, the longest such streak in
league history. With the offense reliably bogging down in the red zone, Myers
kicked at least 3 field goals in all of those games.
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