INDIANAPOLIS (at Hou.): If the Texans lose, they run the risk of the Bills or Chargers moving past them in the playoff seeding. They’re probably interested in holding onto the No. 5 spot, opening the playoffs against the AFC North winner (or maybe even winning the division, if the Titans can pull off a miracle).
They’ll be using
their front-line players, making this an ugly situation for the Colts. Houston
has an elite defense, and it’s on top of its game right now, allowing the
fewest points and yards in the league. The Colts opened the season 8-2, with
the offense scoring 37 touchdowns in those games. Since then, they’re 0-6,
averaging 2 TDs. Houston’s defense has allowed only 30 touchdowns (in 16
games). The Texans have shown up a little flat in both of their last two home
games, allowing 3 TDs against both Arizona and Las Vegas, but this looks like a
butt-kicking situation for Indianapolis. It finished with only 281 net yards
when it lost 20-16 to the Texans in Week 13; that was with Daniel Jones at
quarterback.
The Colts are going with Riley Leonard at quarterback,
and expectations should be modest. He’s just a sixth-round pick, and he’s
getting tossed in against one of the most feared defenses in the league. The
Texans are allowing only 200 passing yards per week, and with only 18
touchdowns. Daniel Jones wasn’t up to much in the earlier meeting, completing
14 of 27 for 201 yards, with 2 TDs. Leonard hasn’t done anything that suggests
he can play at that level. When he came in cold to handle most of the
quarterbacking at Jacksonville, he completed 18 of 29 for 145 yards, with no
touchdowns and an interception – he was just looking to get the ball out of his
hands on short passes. There’s some mobility, at least. He didn’t attempt a run
in that Jacksonville game, but he carried 7 times for 58 yards in the
preseason, and he ran for 36 touchdowns in 37 college starts.
It makes sense
to rank Jonathan Taylor lower than usual, with the Texans ranking 4th in
run defense. But at the same time a back of Taylor’s ilk can never be dropped
all that far. He punched out 85 yards on 21 carries in his last game against
the Texans, and he’s gone over 100 yards and scored in his last two in this
building. And it’s not as if the Texans are the 1985 Chicago Bears. Ashton
Jeanty a few weeks back ran for 128 yards in this building, and James Cook went
for 116. Taylor possibly will win the rushing title, which is probably
important to him. He’ll be flying blind in that regard; he’s 47 yards behind
James Cook, whose game starts later in the day. In the four games without
Daniel Jones, Taylor has averaged 69 rushing and 15 receiving yards, with 3
TDs.
Michael Pittman has been garbage of late. He averaged 3 catches
in the three Philip Rivers games, with not more than 32 yards in any of them.
But he should be helped by the quarterbacking change. When Riley Leonard has
played (and admittedly, it hasn’t been much) Pittman has been the guy he’s
looked for. Pittman has caught 8 passes with the rookie at quarterback, 5 more
than anyone else on the team. Leonard has gone 8 of 10 passing to Pittman, but
only 10 of 23 passing to everyone else. Now, those 8 catches went for only 63
yards, and this is a tough matchup. Pittman caught only 1 pass for 13 yards in
the earlier Houston game (with 3 incompletions). But some merit to tossing him
out there, hoping for 5-6 catches.
Tyler Warren looked like an
up-and-coming franchise tight end early on – a McBride-Bowers kind of guy, with
the Bears perhaps foolishly skipping him to instead pick Colston Loveland. But
Loveland’s merits have started to show up far more often of late, with a bigger
frame and bigger hands. Loveland has caught 23 fewer passes, but he’s averaging
2 more yards per catch and has now caught more touchdowns. But we digress.
Warren in the earlier appearance by Leonard caught only 1 of the 5 passes
thrown his way. He caught 3 passes for 22 yards, with a touchdown, against
Houston. In general, not the guy you want to be relying on this week.
Alec
Pierce made himself some money this year. He’s caught only 43 passes (just
over 3 per game), but he’s averaging 20.3 per reception, consistently making
plays downfield. Teams will want to pay for that, and he’ll be on the open
market – he’s not up on the franchise tag level. But this isn’t a week he’s
likely to be on, with the Colts going to a young quarterback and facing a tough
opponent. In Leonard’s earlier appearance, Pierce caught 3 passes for 54 yards,
but with no downfield connections (his 29- and 16-yarders were short
completions involving yards after the catch. Not a good week to be rolling the
dice on Pierce, but he played well enough in the earlier Houston game, catching
4 passes for 78 yards, with a touchdown.
Similarly, let’s skip on Josh
Downs. He caught 3 passes for 18 yards in the earlier Leonard appearance.
Blake Grupe looks like one of the worst kicker options. The Colts have
been a middle-of-the-pack kicking team of late; they’ve averaged 7.2 points in
their last 10 games. But Houston’s defense has been remarkably tough, allowing
17 fewer points to this position than anybody else in the league. The Colts
scored only 4 kicking points in the previous meeting between these teams.
The
Colts Defense probably will finish with below-average numbers. It’s had
a solid enough year, particularly factoring in injuries – it’s got 39 sacks,
which is close to average, and it ranks in the top 10 in takeaways. But the
Texans have been a top-10 team at avoiding sacks, and they rank No. 2 at taking
care of the football – just 7 turnovers in their last 13 games. Indianapolis
hasn’t scored any touchdowns on special teams but has been remarkably good on
kickoff returns, with 7 of 40-plus yards (they're No. 2 in average yards per
return).
Haven't ordered yet? BUY THE MONTH OF JANUARY!
Already a subscriber? VIEW IT NOW!