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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at NEW ENGLAND - Overview

The Chargers won 40-7 late in the 2024 season, but that was a Patriots team on its way to 4-13 with a different coaching staff and a lot of different players. This Patriots team went 14-3 and has lost once (Buffalo) since Week 3. The teams have met three other times in the postseason this century, with New England winning all three (after the 2006, 2007 and 2018 seasons), but not much relevance to this game. Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry were on that most recent Chargers team.

New England is favored by 3.5, tied as the 2nd-largest favorite of the week, with the over-under of 46.5 indicating roughly a 25-21 game.

Early forecast doesn't look too bad, with temperatures in the low 30s and about a 20 percent chance of precipitation, with winds of 8-10 mph.

CHARGERS

An upset would not be surprising. The Patriots beat up on a lot of bad teams during the season; they went just 1-2 against teams with winning records. But Los Angeles also wasn't impressive the second half of the year; in their last eight (with both Pro Bowl tackles on IR), the only teams they scored more than 2 TDs against were Las Vegas and Dallas. They were just 20th in scoring, while New England finished 4th in points allowed. The Chargers scored 36 touchdowns during the season while the Patriots allowed the same number, making just 2 TDs look like the correct landing spot.

At the halfway point of the season New England had the league's best run defense. Then they lost tackle Milton Williams, and were a bottom-10 group the rest of the way. Williams is back healthy now (played half the snaps in Week 18), so this should be more of an above-average unit. Omarion Hampton had a credible rookie season, when available. He averaged 82 yards (61 run, 21 rec) with 5 TDs in nine games. He ran for 60-plus yards in four of his final seven, and also caught at least 5 passes in four of those. They'll test this run defense, and if that's not working he should catch a bunch of short dumpoffs. Kimani Vidal will also play, but probably as a change-of-pace with Hampton healthy. (When both were available at Dallas in Week 16, Hampton out-touched him 17-5.) Not a great matchup, with the Patriots healthy defensively, but Hampton's all-around potential makes him a solid option. In their last seven games -- mostly played without Williams, admittedly -- New England allowed more touchdowns rushing (8) than passing (7).

Justin Herbert was held out of the last game and Jim Harbaugh mentioned an injury to his non-throwing hand, but he's fine; not listed on their final injury report last week. (The Chargers may have quietly preferred a loss and trip to New England rather than the Jacksonville team that blew them out in Week 11.) Herbert was quite a bit better in his first nine games (266 yards per week with 18 touchdowns) than his last seven (191 yards per week with 8 TDs), as was New England's pass defense. The Patriots' last seven opponents all finished under 200 passing yards, though matchups were part of that (both Jets games). But they're playing well, and Herbert hasn’t been lighting it up, and it's January in Foxborough; below-average passing numbers are what to expect. Herbert -- perhaps in part because protection breakdowns were common, with LA's top two tackles on IR -- ran more this season than ever before. He averaged 31 rushing yards (previous career-high: 18) with 2 TDs, with at least 37 in three of his final four. New England has a below-average pass rush (35 sacks), so Herbert will have time to work, but he's not afraid to make plays with his legs if those opportunities are available. But a pretty sound defense, and production shouldn't be coming easy.

The Chargers had three different wideouts averaging 4-5 receptions for 46-53 yards during the season. Ladd McConkey is the headliner, with a team-high 789 yards, but Keenan Allen caught more passes (81-66), while Quentin Johnston had more touchdowns (8-6). Johnston ended the season on an uptick, going over 98 yards in each of his last two, with 1 TD -- more yards in those games than the other two put together. That makes it hard to lock in too firmly on the others, even with McConkey seeing twice as many targets (106-51) during the season. Allen had 81, and the playoff experience edge (even caught a touchdown in a playoff game at this stadium seven years ago, for those interested in tapping into the history angle). The Chargers will also put Tre Harris on the field; he caught 3-4 passes for an average of 52 yards in a pair of recent games. But just 1 catch in three of his other five most recent games as the No. 4, so hard to make a case for him.

Oronde Gadsden had a four-game stretch where no one could seem to cover him, catching 24 balls for an average of 94 yards, with 2 TDs, in those games. That was fun, but Gadsen has caught 17 passes and 1 TD in eight games since. New England allowed 6 TDs to tight ends, and only 2 in its last nine games.

Cameron Dicker averaged 8.7 points during the season, kicking more field goals (38) than extra points (34). The Patriots were a lousy matchup, allowing fewer field goals (19) than anyone but the Texans, but a schedule filled with a lot of teams considerably worse than the Chargers helped.

This is the game to look at for sacks, with these teams allowing the most of the playoff field while the Chargers Defense ranks 5th among teams playing this week (47, just 1 fewer than New England allowed). Pretty good chance they'll be coming away with 3. It's a middle-of-the-pack situation for takeaways, with the Chargers having 19 interceptions but only 4 fumble recoveries, while the Patriots have surrendered 8 of each. Derius Davis had a punt return touchdown two years ago (a second-team All-Pro that year) but missed six games this year and has a long punt return of 33 yards and long kickoff of just 30.

This report is just a small snippet of the Week 19 "Wild Card Edition" of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.

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