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SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE - Overview

These teams split the regular season series, with the 49ers winning here 17-13 in Week 1. Seattle dominated pretty thoroughly at Santa Clara in Week 18, winning 13-3 (the 49ers finished that game with only 173 net yards). These teams also split the previous season, with the 49ers winning a Thursday night game at Seattle, 36-24, and the Seahawks winning at Levi’s Stadium a month later. For whatever it’s worth, the road team has won the last four games in the series.

Weather shouldn’t be a factor at all. The early forecast suggest it will be dry, with a high of 50 degrees and light winds.

Seattle is by far the largest favorite of the week (7.5 points, with an over-under of 44.5).

SEAHAWKS

The Seahawks are the betting favorites right now to win the Super Bowl, but that’s fueled mostly by their defense. The offense, of late, has been pretty ordinary, with only 16 touchdowns in its last eight games. It scored 27 touchdowns in its previous eight. Here they’re at home, and against a defense with lesser talent – no Nick Bosa, no Fred Warner. But a strong defense gives Seattle the luxury of being able to keep things conservative offensively – it probably doesn’t want to get into a track meet kind of game. Probably 2-3 TDs, we’re thinking, with Seattle in some instances probably content to settle for 2. It scored only one touchdown in each of the two regular season meetings (while the Week 1 game hardly seems meaningful, with both the quarterback and the offensive coordinator making their Seattle debuts).

Seattle’s running game has gotten a lot better, with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet operating as a tandem. The Seahawks averaged only 104 rushing yards in their first eight games, but they’ve stuck with it. They’ve now averaged 141 yards in their last nine. They pounded the 49ers in the meeting two weeks ago for 180 yards. That was the most allowed by the 49ers all year, and Saquon Barkley followed that up on Sunday by going over 100. That should be the initial thrust of the game plan – see if they can just keep that going. San Francisco ranks 13th in run defense but doesn’t have great personnel, so maybe. The 49ers have been playing without Fred Warner and lost his replacement, Tatum Bethune, in the earlier meeting. We’re inclined to believe that the running game will continue to thrive. Walker has averaged 62 rushing and 22 receiving yards in his last nine games, with 2 TDs. Charbonnet has averaged 56 rushing and 10 receiving yards in his last nine, with 7 TDs. They prefer Charbonnet in goal-line situations (when both have played, Charbonnet holds a 12-3 edge in rushing touchdowns). Walker ran for 97 yards in the game two weeks ago, while Charbonnet went for 74 and a touchdown. And they’ve been showing up more in the passing game of late; each has caught 9 passes in his last three games.

Sam Darnold has gone 14-3 as a starter two years in a row, but he has limitations. He had a league-high 20 turnovers in the regular season; he’s averaged only 218 yards in his last nine games, with 9 TDs. The plan, therefore, will probably be to protect him from having to do too much. With a strong defense and an emerging running game, they should be fine if they just don’t beat themselves. That should be enough against this opponent. All of which makes modest numbers look likely, but Darnold should have the opportunity to cash in on some high payoff throws. The 49ers will struggle against the run, and they don’t have a pass rush, so there should be some chances for Darnold to stand in clean pockets and deliver some strikes. San Francisco ranked 23rd in pass defense in the regular season, lowest among remaining teams, and with 29 TD passes allowed.

Factoring in weather conditions, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a decent chance of outperforming Puka Nacua. Conditions could be brutal in Chicago. And JSN is really good; he averaged 7 catches for 105 yards in the regular season, with 10 TDs. He’s working against a leaky secondary, and he’s performed well against them in both of the regular season meetings, catching 15 passes for 208 yards (albeit with no touchdowns).

Cooper Kupp has a Super Bowl MVP on his resume, but he’s not that guy anymore. He’s declined, and they hardly use him. He’s averaged 2.4 catches for 33 yards in his last 10 games, with one touchdown. Rashid Shaheed looks like a similar, albeit streakier, option. Shaheed has caught only 15 passes for 188 yards in his nine games, with no touchdowns, but there’s more of a possibility of him maybe catching something long. And he’s scored 2 TDs on kick returns while also running for 64 yards on end-arounds.

AJ Barner caught only 3 passes for 14 yards in the two regular-season games against the 49ers, but he looks like a decent enough choice. The 49ers will have their hands full with JSN and the running game, perhaps freeing up Barner for a cheap one in the red zone. San Francisco allowed 99 catches and 10 TDs to tight ends in the regular season (bottom-10 numbers), and Dallas Goedert scored against them on Sunday. Barner is no Goedert, but he caught 52 passes and 6 TDs in the regular season, with another touchdown on a Tush Push play.

The Seahawks likely will activate Elijah Arroyo, using him as a second tight end, but he’s caught only 2 passes in his last five games (and has been out for over a month).

Jason Myers looks like the safest and best choice at kicker. Typically with this position, it’s best to go with the team most likely to be scoring and moving the ball. That’s Seattle – favored by over twice as many points as any other team. Myers averaged just over 10 points per week in the regular season. He scored only 7 points in the meeting two weeks ago, but he missed a couple of field goals in that game that he would more commonly make. San Francisco allowed only 103 kicking points in the regular season, but with more typical accuracy, their opponents should have been closer to average in scoring (opponents converted only 67 percent of field goals against them – only one other team finished under 80).

The Seahawks Defense looks like the best choice for interceptions. It had 18 in the regular season (trailing only Chicago and Houston) while San Francisco has the only offense that’s averaging an interception per game. Brock Purdy is undersized, with a lesser arm, and he gets a little frazzled when pressured. The Seahawks picked him off twice in the opener, and they got him again in Week 18. The worst game of Purdy’s career came against Baltimore late in the 2022 season (Mike Macdonald was the coordinator of that defense). The matchup isn’t as compelling for sacks. Purdy has taken only 12 in his 10 games. The Seahawks got him 3 times in Week 18, but that was with Trent Williams and his backup both missing. Seattle had 47 sacks in the regular season, tying for 2nd-most among remaining teams. The Seahawks have by far the hottest kick returner. Rashid Shaheed in December scored on a kickoff return at Atlanta, a punt return against the Rams and had another kick return that helped set up the winning field goal against Indianapolis.

This report is just a small snippet of the Week 20 "Divisional Round" of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 10-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.

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