Every Saturday morning, I'll take a quick look at the week's games, offering my own brief take on what I think will happen, as well as touching on significant injury news since our Weekly came out. I'll check in over the course of the day to answer questions, too.
The official rankings are the ones in the Weekly. Those take precedence. But sometimes players are very close, and in those cases I'm glad to offer opinions on how I'd approach those situations. Sometimes I like certain players more or less than Ian, and sometimes I have different risk tolerance with injuries etc. If I don't answer your question, either I missed it (it happens) or the rankings are very clear.
L.A. Rams at Carolina: With this one we have the conflicting realities that the Rams are the week's biggest favorite by a wide, wide margin, offset by the fact that Carolina won this game in Week 13, 31-28, with both teams scoring 4 touchdowns. It is hard to reconcile, but in that game Matthew Stafford turned it over 3 times, with a pair of interceptions then a sack-lost fumble while in comfortable short field goal range in the final minutes. Stafford otherwise turned it over a total of 12 times in his other 16 games, so if he can avoid 3 turnovers this week, the Rams should be fine. Panthers weakest against the run, so should be some Kyren Williams-Blake Corum action, while the Rams are weaker against the pass, so Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan should be doing more than Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard.
I'm paying respect to what happened six weeks ago and all, but this game is stuck in the early window on Saturday between a team that in its other games went 12-4 and one that otherwise went 7-9. Rams offense should be moving the ball and scoring and their defense should have some better stuff cooking against Young and company. That being said, the fact the Rams lost this matchup, lost at Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, and blew that lead against Seattle is a reminder that maybe playoff expectations are too high for this team. They win here, sure, but are they going to also win in say Philadelphia or Seattle? Seems optimistic.
Green Bay at Chicago: The funny thing to me about this game is you had a full NFL season and two hard-fought matchups and a heated division race that had the pretty minimal effect of getting the Bears homefield advantage for this game. It's the 2nd seed versus the 7th seed and the game is basically a pick 'em where I expect the 7 seed to win but wouldn't be surprised by either outcome; should come down to who makes more plays in the final period. Both teams should have some success running the ball. Both quarterbacks can make some big throws. The Packers are better defensively in terms of getting stops, the Bears are the most opportunistic defense in the league. Should be a fun one, especially for those of us who don't care much who wins.
I saw somewhere that Matt LaFleur could be a surprise coaching casualty. Seems unlikely, and an Ian Rapoport story today says no way, so probably nothing to it. He's not exactly a charmer it doesn't seem, which counts for something, maybe someone in the organization doesn't like him, or maybe they're tired of him frustrating fantasy teams by playing musical chairs at wide receiver and putting hurt running backs on the field. Or the original story was untrue, which seems more likely. Fantasy-wise, I like Bears running backs and Christian Watson and Colston Loveland, but don't have players from either team on my one roster for the entire playoffs competitions because I don't know who's going to win.
Buffalo at Jacksonville: This is the other game I don't have a clear favorite. Jacksonville has certainly been playing better lately, with the impressive win in Denver and the very sound defense, much better (especially against the run) than Buffalo. Oh yeah, they're also a lot better at wide receiver. And Trevor Lawrence has been playing great and it's in Jacksonville. But it's still Josh Allen making plays with his arm and legs (especially, I suspect), and what Jacksonville's defense was doing over the last seven games aside from that Broncos win came against the Colts and Titans twice each and also the Cardinals and Jets. And Trevor too. So let's dial back the hype a little bit and keep in mind most of what Jacksonville was doing the second half of the season came against dramatically inferior teams starting rookie quarterbacks or 44-year-olds or the Jets.
Regardless, the Bills can't stop the run, should struggled to run the ball against Jacksonville, and have that lousy group of wide receivers that other teams didn't want. Fantasy-wise, I like Allen, Etienne, Shakir and maybe Meyers or Washington at wideout. I understand that Allen has lost a bunch of road playoff games but losing at Kansas City (including the game where he left the field with a lead with 15 seconds left) isn't anything to feel bad about in the Mahomes era. I'm picking the Bills, and if I'm wrong I'll come back here on Monday and say so, not that anyone needs affirmation, sometimes we all make predictions that are wrong.
San Francisco at Philadelphia: Stuff changes quickly in the NFL. About 10 days ago the 49ers seemed like they were going to maybe be the No. 1 seed in the NFC, sitting back and watching this weekend before hosting some team they'd already beaten this year. Instead they're the weekend's 2nd-biggest underdog, a line that opened at 3.5 and is currently at 6 points -- I don't know anyone who believes they're going to go into Philadelphia and win. The Eagles, recall, in their last six meaningful games lost three in a row and won twice against the Raiders and Commanders, which big deal, they suck. (Side note: the Commanders just hired David Blough as their offensive coordinator. Blough was a third-string quarterback in Detroit and Arizona as recently as 2023, and now he's tasked with designing the offense that gets Jayden Daniels and everyone back on track; what?)
But that Eagles defense is playing some really good football. It did last postseason, it did in the last half-season against the Packers, Lions and Bills, holding all of them to 12 points or fewer. No sugarcoating that, it's a tough group that's well-coached and the 49ers have a banged-up offense that got pretty much totally shut down in its last game against a really good Seattle defense. Oh yeah plus their own defense got lit up for a lot of the season, with its best players on IR (and some of the replacements now also hurt). I will go with the masses and pick the Eagles to win this game and send San Francisco into the offseason trying to build a wide receiver corps that can stay healthy and not get into protracted contract battles. I like Saquon and A.J. Brown in this game and that's most of what I'd invest in. Maybe there's an upset but hard to make a case for it.
L.A. Chargers at New England: I have seen some support for a Chargers upset. The general sense that New England did have a really easy schedule this year, their defense isn't that great, their quarterback is just a second-year guy against a pretty good Chargers defense, especially against the pass. I don't really see it, what with the Chargers on the road, not having a fully healthy running back, and having an injury gutted offensive line that allowed 60 sacks this season. Kind of a lot. I think if you're in on the Chargers it's for a similar reason to being in on the Bills, the feeling that an elite quarterback can make some plays with his arm and legs and surprise an overconfident team that beat up on a lot of bad ones. Point spread has been steady at 3.5, which highlights that people have doubts about the Patriots.
I like the Chargers quarterback, receivers and defense. Maybe that's enough for them to force some turnovers and steal a 23-20 type of game. Those of us who remember that the Patriots were winning Super Bowls, what, six years ago or so certainly wouldn't mind seeing New England go down. But the Chargers being the one to do it just seems a little unlikely. In general if you can't run the ball and can't protect your quarterback you're not going to win in the playoffs, and I don't think Los Angeles can do either of those things at the moment. I'm in on Diggs, Henry and the two Patriots running backs, and expect they'll be hosting Jacksonville or the Monday winner next week.
Houston at Pittsburgh: Not a lot of support for Pittsburgh, but the line has moved slightly in their direction (from 3.5 to 3), so maybe. Taking the points seems to make sense with the game almost certain to be lower-scoring. Aaron Rodgers has won these games before and keeping in mind everyone thought Pittsburgh would lose to Baltimore last week. I think the defenses have appeal, perhaps the kickers, and some interest in Gainwell and Woody Marks in PPR leagues, as they should be catching some short passes however the game goes. Nico Collins and DK Metcalf are legit No. 1s, and I suppose with Nico you can say, well, Zay Flowers torched this secondary for long touchdowns last week, and he's better. But the chance of another Houston wideout catching those passes, should they happen, seems high.
In general I'm against a Monday night playoff game, doesn't help them in the Divisional Round certainly. But Pittsburgh was a pretty mediocre team and the Texans aren't too much fun to watch on offense, so as an objective fan I'm not going to care that much. The game needs to happen, one of these teams needs to win and go and probably lose at Denver or New England, and that's the NFL. Only seven teams in the AFC won more games than they lost, so they'll play this game with two of them and hopefully it will be a good one.
Will answer questions as I see them, but hopefully the rankings will be clear on most of them. Enjoy the games.
