Every Saturday morning, I'll take a quick look at the week's games, offering my own brief take on what I think will happen, as well as touching on significant injury news since our Weekly came out. I'll check in over the course of the day to answer questions, too.
The official rankings are the ones in the Weekly. Those take precedence. But sometimes players are very close, and in those cases I'm glad to offer opinions on how I'd approach those situations. Sometimes I like certain players more or less than Ian, and sometimes I have different risk tolerance with injuries etc. If I don't answer your question, either I missed it (it happens) or the rankings are very clear.
Buffalo at Denver: I'm a little surprised that this isn't the night game. Sure sure, San Francisco at Seattle is equally important, but we just saw that game two weeks ago. I will also note at this point, as some aware, that my son is a Broncos fan which I guess makes me a Broncos fan. But a large portion of me would like to see Josh Allen and former Brocos fan Hailee Steinfeld get to the Super Bowl too. Anyway, wanted to get all my biases out in the open up front.
As for the game, I can imagine all possible outcomes. Buffalo dominating as they did in last year's playoff game in Buffalo. Denver's pass rush harassing Josh Allen all game. A tight defensive struggle, a back-and-forth offensive clash. If I did not have any biases I think betting on Allen to get over the hump and get to that Super Bowl this year, at last, is the way to go. But sometimes the better defense is the proper bet in the playoffs and we could be getting Houston at Denver a week from now. Regardless, this is one of the two games I'm most looking forward to this weekend.
San Francisco at Seattle: Some will doubtless recall I thought San Francisco would win this matchup (in San Francisco) a couple of weeks ago. Not the case, with the 49ers managing just 3 points, with a goal-line interception a factor. Had Seattle not missed two field goals in that one it wouldn't have been as close as the 13-3 final. And now the 49ers don't have George Kittle. If I were betting maybe I'd take the points with San Francisco, but with their offense missing yet another key player and their defense short on talented, healthy players (and Robert Saleh's focus perhaps affected by various head coaching interviews, seems like the league has really relaxed past restrictions about when you can speak to coaches still in the playoffs), it's hard to see the game really going well.
Sam Darnold has an oblique injury. I looked it up so you don't have to, it's basically a side/torso issue which depending on the severity could affect passing for a quarterback. Probably minor but I had been thinking Seattle would favor the run anyway and this makes it more likely. All three running backs look viable in this game, and both tight ends (Jake Tonges and A.J. Barner), Jaxon Smith-Njigba obviously. Whatever the case, Seattle should be moving on.
Houston at New England: Houston's defensive dominance at Pittsburgh, which was not surprising, is difficult to ignore, but Drake Maye brings a lot more to the table athletically than Aaron Rodgers. And New England's running backs are way better than Pittsburgh's. And the Patriots have more than one good wide receiver. So there are a lot of things I like better about this offense than the Steelers, and I expect the Patriots to do more (it would be hard for them to do less). If they're moving the ball a little on the ground and then Maye is scrambling for some first downs and hitting the occasional pass to Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry, that should be enough.
Houston doesn't have Nico Collins. That's bad. C.J. Stroud kept putting the ball on the ground at Pittsburgh, New England's run defense should be better against Woody Marks and Nick Chubb with it having Milton Williams healthy, and it's just hard to see the Texans moving the ball with any regularity. I'm expecting low-scoring, like everyone else, and maybe Houston jumps a route for a Pick Six that wins the game, but I'll give a slight edge to the home team with the better offense.
L.A. Rams at Chicago: This is the other of the two games I'm most interested in watching. Older star QB versus emerging youngster. Cold and windy. Road favorite with the playoff experience and history and veteran coaching staff and talent versus the young upstart who thinks a rivalry is a good reason not to shake hands after a game. Seems like it should be a good game and if I were betting I'd take the 4.5 points the Bears are getting. I expect the Rams to win, just too much experience and a better defense (not for opportunism but for actually stopping drives at time), although that defense hasn't looked so good for a while and barely got by a Panthers offense with a lot less going for it.
Fantasy-wise, I like D'Andre Swift (who's exceeded my expectations all year) and both Rams running backs. Hard to bet against Colston Loveland -- midseason I was feeling great for having drafted Tyler Warren over him in my rookie draft, today not so much -- or Puka Nacua, but wind and frigid temperatures could hold passing down somewhat. I'd be steering clear of guys coming off injury like Davante and Odunze. Feels like this one will come down to a late drive or field goal; should be fun to watch.
Enjoy the games.
