The NFC teams have a lot more recent history than the AFC ones; they play twice each season. First up the road underdogs, the Los Angeles Rams (we'll cover the Seahawks tomorrow, followed by player rankings).
Overview: The teams have split the four meetings over the past two seasons, all decided by less than a touchdown (two in overtime). They've met twice in the playoffs, with the Rams winning 30-20 in the 2020 postseason (with Jared Goff; they'd trade for Matthew Stafford a few months later) and 27-20 after the 2004 season. This season's games were both down to the wire, with the Rams taking an early 14-3 lead in the home game, winning 21-19 when Seattle was short on a 61-yard field on the final play. In Week 16, the Rams had a 30-14 lead in the fourth quarter, but Seattle rallied to force overtime and then answered a Rams touchdown with a touchdown and 2-point conversion for a 38-37 win. ... The betting lines (Seattle -2.5, over-under of 47) suggest a 25-22 game. ... Early forecast calls for temperatures in the low 40s, just a 5 percent chance of rain and not much wind.
L.A. RAMS:
When these teams met in Week 16, it seemed very possible they were playing for homefield advantage in this exact matchup. Since Week 5, the Rams lost only two other games, Seattle one (to the Rams). Weird thing is that while Seattle otherwise dominated in its final six games, allowing a total of 2 TDs and 38 points in its other five contests, the Rams were fine, scoring 37 points and 4 touchdowns, with 581 net yards. But the earlier matchup (21 points, 3 TDs and 249 yards) is a little closer to what to look for, with Seattle's defense healthy and on top of its game. (San Francisco also had a top-10 offense this season and failed to get in the end zone against this defense twice in the last three weeks.) Probably 2-3 touchdowns, with the Rams scoring in the low 20s.
Expectations should be lowered for Matthew Stafford. He led the league in both passing yards (4,707) and touchdowns (46), and had the monster game at Seattle a few weeks ago (457 yards and 3 TDs). But the earlier meeting (15 of 28 for 130 yards, with 2 TDs) also happened; Seattle ranked 13th in pass defense during the season, and only six teams allowed fewer touchdowns (20). Somewhere in the middle of those previous meetings -- say 250 yards and 2 TDs -- is probably fair, with Seattle even tougher defending the run and the Rams 2nd in passing offense. Los Angeles figured out some stuff that worked in the previous meeting, building a 30-14 lead which they ultimately squandered. Stafford wasn't sacked in either game, nor did he turn it over.
He's facing the toughest pass defense of those remaining -- Denver and New England allowed fewer yards during the season, but some really favorable matchups along the way played into that -- but both the body of work and what he was able to do in the last meeting suggest no one should be underestimating him. He won't be running it.
Seattle ranked 3rd in run defense, but we're not shying away from Kyren Williams. He was very good in the home game (12 for 91, TD) and heavily used in the road meeting (23 for 70). Seattle will probably be more concerned with slowing down the passing offense, while the Rams -- with their TE-heavy offensive packages -- really ran it well the second half of the year, averaging 143 yards in 10 games since the bye week, finishing under 115 in just one of those games. (Thirteen rushing scores in those contests, as well.) Williams ran for 87 yards and 2 TDs at Chicago last week, and the one-two punch with Blake Corum they'd been favoring went away. Corum got only 6 carries, half of which came in overtime. (Reasonable to wonder if Williams picked up an injury of some sort; he got the first two carries of the extra period but none after that. But for now the assumption is he's fine.) Regardless, Corum seems like a riskier choice than down the stretch (14 for 48 and a touchdown at Seattle in Week 16). He did have 11 carries at Philadelphia, so possible last week was a one-time thing.
Neither back was a huge part of the passing game during the season (especially Corum, with just 8 catches all season). Williams averaged just over 2 catches and had 4 for 20 in this series.
It's a matchup of the two best wide receivers during the season, with Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba both averaging 17-19 more yards per game than everyone else. Nacua was just held in check (5 for 56 on 10 targets) by Chicago, but Seattle had no more answer for him than anyone else (7 for 75 when Seattle held Stafford to just 130, and 12 for 225 with 2 TDs a few weeks back). Just 12 TDs by wide receivers against Seattle, but they didn't do anything special as far as taking opposing No. 1s away.
Davante Adams was a better scorer during the season; than anyone, with a league-high 14 touchdowns. But injuries limited or sidelined him entirely down the stretch (he missed the game in Seattle); no touchdowns in any of his last five games, including the two playoff games. In the home game against this defense he caught 1 pass on 8 targets; for a touchdown, at least. He's caught 7 passes in the first two playoff games, but efficiency (19 targets) leaves something to be desired. Still, he's the wideout to consider after Nacua, both for scoring potential and targets, period. The team's other wideouts to see targets the last two weeks (Jordan Whittington and Konata Mumpfield) have caught just 1-2 passes in each game. Mumpfield caught 3 for 40 in the Week 16 shootout; that was with Adams inactive.
The Rams will probably get more production out of their tight ends this week than any other team. During the season, players at the position for LA combined for 103 receptions, 1,128 yards and 17 touchdowns, at least 5 more than anyone but San Francisco (14). Identifying the correct tight end is trickier. Tyler Higbee has come off IR to catch 8 passes and a touchdown the last 3 weeks, but just 3 of those receptions came in the two playoff games. Colby Parkinson has caught 9 passes in those same three games, with 3 TDs, and he's been best in the playoffs (5 for 90 with a score). Terrance Ferugson has just 3 catches in the playoffs, but one went for a touchdown, and he also scored at Seattle. Only Davis Allen (no catches the last four weeks) can be removed from consideration, but he caught 2 passes on 5 targets in that Week 16 game. We're ranking Parkinson and Higbee as the best bets, but some guesswork; both will be on the field plenty (and Ferguson actually played more snaps than Higbee last week).
A feast or famine situation for Harrison Mevis. In Los Angeles' regular-season win, he kicked 3 extra points but didn't attempt any field goals. In the loss, he kicked 3 field goals (and also missed from 48). Seattle was the 2nd-worst matchup for a kicker during the season from the remaining teams, allowing just 5.9 points to the position.
The Rams Defense should have some opportunities against Sam Darnold. He led all quarterbacks with 20 turnovers (14 interceptions and 6 lost fumbles), and nearly half of his interceptions (6) came against the Rams. No sacks at Los Angeles, but 4 in the home game (and 16 total in his last six contests). This defense didn't actually play as well the second half of the season, particularly in terms of pass rush, and has only 2 sacks in the playoffs. But it's recorded 5 takeaways in those two games (and 26 in the regular season, to go with 47 sacks) making it look like a solid enough option this week, if not as good as either AFC defense).
Next: Seattle Seahawks.
--Andy Richardson