Yesterday we previewed the road team in the AFC Championship game; today it's the home team. They're 5.5-point underdogs, reportedly the biggest in history, due to them losing their franchise quarterback at the end of the Divisional Round win.
Even if Bo Nix were playing, there would be plenty of support for the visitor. The Broncos went 14-3, but nearly all of those were one-score games, with wins by just 1-3 points over three of the league's worst teams (Jets, Giants, Raiders) and several narrow wins over other sub-.500 teams starting backup quarterbacks (Commanders, Kansas City). There were also wins over playoff squads: Eagles, Texans, Packers and the Bills last week. Denver has one of the league's top defenses. But with a backup quarterback in the lineup and some other offensive injuries, seems likeliest that Denver will be hard-pressed to come up with more than 2 TDs, and -- in our eyes -- probably about a 25-20 loss. That's a little higher than the over-under (40.5), but in line with the point spread.
The betting public is probably underestimating Jarrett Stidham. True, he's a journeyman former fourth-rounder who hasn't thrown a pass as Nix's backup the past two seasons. But he's been in Sean Payton's offense for three years now, and while level of difficulty and significance is dramatically higher here than preseason and playing out the string back in 2023, he's looked capable in it. In two 2023 starts he was 40 of 66 for 496 yards and 2 TDs. This past August he was 30 of 38 for 376 yards, with 4 TDs and zero interceptions. Throwing to backups and facing backups, but he should be able to run the offense credibly.
The Patriots finished the year as a top-10 pass defense, but it was an up-and-down group. Halfway through the season it ranked 1st against the run and 20th against the pass. It lost Milton Williams and got chewed up on the ground for most of the last two months, but got him back for the playoffs and has played more like that first-half defense (pretty much erasing the Chargers and Texans on the ground). Those offenses also didn't do much passing it (an average of just 176 passing yards, with 1 TD and 5 interceptions) but both were dealing with significant offensive line injuries that had their quarterback with no time to throw, and -- in the case of C.J. Stroud -- some unforced errors. In general it was a lesser pass rush (35 sacks during the season). No one should be counting on above-average numbers from Stidham, but with more of Denver's offense tending to come through the air and New England's defense being similar a lot of the year, somewhere around 230 yards and a touchdown seems fair. Stidham didn't run in college or in either of his Broncos starts in 2023, but carried 14 times for 84 yards in two starts for the Raiders in 2022. Probably best not to count on that production, but it's possible he'll make a play or two with his legs if the opportunity is there.
Leaning on the run while starting a backup quarterback would be the ideal, but that's not particularly likely to happen. Denver ranked 16th in rushing offense during the season, but they were bottom-10 when you remove quarterback runs from the equation. They've opened up the practice window for J.K. Dobbins, on IR since Week 10 with a foot injury; the possibility of him returning is one reason for optimism. Dobbins averaged 77 rushing yards and 5.0 per attempt when healthy, which was worlds better than RJ Harvey (31 rushing yards, on 3.7 per attempt). When we publish player rankings at the end of the week, it will be clearer if Dobbins will be available, or if it will again be Harvey as the main runner.
But the Patriots were tough on the run for the bulk of the season. They finished 6th, allowing 102 yards per game, but were No. 1 until losing tackle Milton Williams late in the year. He's back, and was a part of this defense completely shutting down the Chargers and Texans the last two weeks. Setting aside quarterback run, those teams combined to carry the ball 32 times for 67 yards. Harvey hasn't shown much potential to improve on that, and while Dobbins would be a better bet, he's been out for two months and the matchup is tough (and New England will doubtless be trying to put the game in Stidham's hands).
Even if Dobbins suits up (our lean for now), Harvey would have some potential for his role as a pass catcher. He averaged 2.8 catches for 21 yards, with 5 touchdowns (and 7 more as a runner). It was somewhat overshadowed, but he had one of the biggest plays of last week's overtime win, breaking multiple tackles on a short out that he took 24 yards to midfield, getting the Broncos on the outskirts of field goal range.
Denver also has Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie. Badie can be dismissed; not used as a runner, and seeing no more than 1-2 targets per game. Typically one of those goes for a 10- to 15-yard gain if the blocking is good, and the other gets blown up immediately for a 5-yard loss. Presumably they like him in pass protection. McLaughlin has been more effective than Harvey as a runner over the past six games, averaging over 5 yards per attempt in all but one of those and outcarrying the rookie 6-4 last week. But he was a healthy scratch when Dobbins was healthy, so he won't necessarily be active if the starter returns.
Obviously the Nix injury is the big one, but the likely absence of two of the team's top wide receivers during the season is pretty impactful. Troy Franklin looked like the top wideout at times, going for 709 yards and 6 touchdowns, but he left the Bills game with a hamstring injury that makes him unlikely to be available. Third-rounder Pat Bryant was even better down the stretch, catching 24 passes for an average of 46 yards over his last six games. It looked like he'd have a huge game against Buffalo, hauling in Nix's first three pass attempts on the opening drive. But he left that game with a concussion (his second in a month, also missing the Week 17 game), so he also looks doubtful for this one.
Far more likely the top 3 is Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims and Lil'Jordan Humphrey. Sutton is the more reliable player, averaging 4.4 catches and 60 yards, with 7 touchdowns. He's the money target in key situations, with a spectacular 25-yard sideline grab to keep Denver's last drive of regulation alive and then the intended target on all three pass attempts on the first overtime possession. He disappeared at times (four games with just 1 catch, and his first reception against Buffalo came with 4 minutes left in regulation), but he's the closest there is to a go-to receiver. New England has a strong cornerback duo in Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, but Davis left the win over the Texans due to a concussion, so he might not be available.
Should the Broncos get to the Super Bowl, the game that Mims had against Buffalo will be pointed to as a huge part of their run: 8 for 93 with a fourth-quarter touchdown, and the intended target on the last pass attempt of the game (drawing the flag to make the winning field goal a chip shot). That play might have been another touchdown had Nix not been throwing it on an injured ankle. Mims more commonly was lightly used (just three other games with more than 3 receptions),but will probably be the No. 2 here. He handled the ball 12 times on runs during the season for 78 yards and a score while also returning kicks.
Humphrey was the direct fill-in after Bryant left, dropping a touchdown on the opening drive but catching one later in the game. Just 2 receptions, but 5 for 65 and a score in two late-season games (Green Bay, Kansas City) that Bryant missed.
The tight ends haven't been a big part of the offense. Evan Engram averaged 3.1 receptions for 29 yards, with 1 TD all season. Just 1 catch last week, even with the wide receiver injuries and his quarterback attempting 46 passes. Adam Trautman averaged just over a catch per game, also with 1 touchdown. Nate Adkins caught a touchdown. Engram caught at least 4 passes eight times during the season and is the player to consider, but only one of those games was in the past six contests. Different quarterback, so maybe the position gets a few more looks this week.
At times the offense was too efficient in the red zone for Wil Lutz. During the season he kicked 39 extra points versus 28 field goals, averaging 7.2 points per week. But 15 points last week (4 field goals and 3 extra points), and it's a backup quarterback running the offense now -- perhaps fewer drives, but more likely to sputter in the red zone. But only the Texans allowed fewer field goals than New England (19) during the season.
Pressure will be on the Broncos Defense to get this injury-weakened team to the Super Bowl. It's possible, with Drake Maye having been a better matchup than you might expect from an MVP candidate. Maye threw only 8 interceptions in the regular season, while losing just 3 fumbles, but was sacked 47 times. In the playoffs, he's been sacked 5 times each week, fumbled 6 times (losing 3) and thrown an interception in each game. Denver led the league with 68 sacks, and while they had just 14 takeaways, they were somewhat better last week (3 fumble recoveries and 2 interceptions to go with 3 sacks). Marvin Mims had a return score during the season and was an All-Pro a year ago.
Next: Los Angeles Rams.
--Andy Richardson