Elite teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Phillies have several lesser known starting pitchers who could emerge as nice finds for wins this season.
Pitcher wins can be tough to come by these days, with limited pitch counts, quick hooks, and an overall reduction in innings. My past analysis correlated starting pitcher wins with team wins, and that remains a quick and easy way to assess the category when searching for sleepers.
However, there are more complications in today’s game, as teams like the Dodgers project six-man rotations and organizations actively limit pitcher workloads for injury prevention.
Last season saw only seven pitchers reach 15-plus wins, all of whom pitched for playoff teams. Extending the criteria further, 21 of the 28 pitchers with at least 12 wins played for teams that reached the postseason.
As we mine for wins sleepers in 2026, below is a list of the top 12 projected teams based on win totals at BetMGM Sportsbook. Granted, these odds will change as more moves are made this offseason, but we already have a general idea of baseball’s strongest teams. Like average draft position in fantasy baseball, these odds can serve as a useful guide when projecting wins in 2026.
As we break down the current starting rotations for these 12 teams, several potential sleepers for wins stand out.
Dodgers 103.5
Yankees 91.5
Mariners 90.5
Phillies 90.5
Mets 90.5
Cubs 88.5
Blue Jays 88.5
Braves 87.5
Red Sox 87.5
Orioles 85.5
Padres 85.5
Astros 85.5
Los Angeles Dodgers
Once again, there isn’t much profit to be found in the Dodgers rotation, with multiple highly paid elite arms at the top. Roki Sasaki has a chance to be a sneaky buy outside the top 200 ADP if you’re willing to chase the upside, while depth options returning from injury—such as River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, and Gavin Stone—could be useful stashes.
New York Yankees
New York hopes to manage workloads early in the season while Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón recover from injuries. Will Warren and Ryan Weathers project as viable fill-ins, and both are well outside the top 300 ADP. Top prospects Elmer Rodriguez, Ben Hess, and Carlos Lagrange are also worth filing away for potential midseason promotions.
Seattle Mariners
For the third straight year, Seattle’s rotation looks remarkably stable, with an interchangeable group of front-line starters. Emerson Hancock once again profiles as the next man up should injuries strike, while the additions of Randy Dobnak and Dane Dunning provide further depth.
Philadelphia Phillies
Prior to Spring Training, there are several questions surrounding the Phillies rotation. Zack Wheeler’s health is uncertain following thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, Aaron Nola is coming off a subpar season, and top prospect Andrew Painter appears ready to crack the rotation. Painter is currently outside the top 400 ADP but is likely to rise as the season approaches. Taijuan Walker has shown shaky peripherals but remains a near-free add who could still secure a rotation spot. Offseason acquisition Jonathan Bowlan may also be worth monitoring if he’s fully stretched out this spring.
New York Mets
The Mets rotation offers a wide range of fantasy options. After Freddy Peralta, fantasy managers can buy low on veterans such as Sean Manaea or Kodai Senga, or invest in the upside of young starters Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong. David Peterson and Clay Holmes remain high-floor groundball pitchers, while the midseason return of Christian Scott is worth tracking.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs rotation experienced a relatively quiet offseason, with the notable exception of Edward Cabrera. The oft-injured former Marlin broke out in 2025, but his lengthy injury history still carries risk. Shota Imanaga is a rebound candidate with an ADP near 170, while Jameson Taillon is available outside the top 300. Justin Steele could return from elbow surgery in the first half, and Chicago also boasts solid depth with Ben Brown, Javier Assad, and Colin Rea.
Toronto Blue Jays
The defending AL champions have been active this offseason, including major rotation upgrades with the additions of Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce. Ponce, in particular, could be a bargain outside the top 400 ADP. José Berríos is a risky option after losing velocity and his rotation spot last season, but he remains a late flier outside the top 500.
Atlanta Braves
The upside of Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, and Spencer Schwellenbach is undeniable, but none will come cheaply in drafts. For bargain hunters, Hurston Waldrep and Reynaldo López offer more palatable prices outside the top 250. Minor league signing Martín Pérez could emerge as a last-round option in Draft Champions leagues, while Grant Holmes and Joey Wentz provide additional depth with starter experience.
Boston Red Sox
Few teams can match Boston’s starting pitching depth after adding Sonny Gray, Ranger Suárez, and Johan Oviedo. While Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello remain key pieces, younger arms may ultimately provide more fantasy profit. Left-handers Connelly Early and Payton Tolles enjoyed breakout minor league seasons in 2025 and are ready when called upon. Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval could also factor in as they return from injury.
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore’s rotation is packed with upside and injury risk, creating several buying opportunities. Shane Baz is coming off a down season in Tampa Bay but can be had outside the top 200 ADP. Zach Eflin is returning from back surgery but re-signed in Baltimore and is available at the end of drafts. Cade Povich profiles as the next man up if injuries arise, and nearly every member of the rotation carries some injury history.
San Diego Padres
San Diego has already lost Yu Darvish for the season, but that blow is softened by Joe Musgrove’s return from Tommy John surgery. Musgrove is available outside the top 200 ADP. Randy Vásquez and JP Sears are much cheaper options who could fill out the back end of the rotation. Kyle Hart and Matt Waldron have also worked as starters, though they profile more as in-season additions. Minor league signee Marco Gonzales is another name worth monitoring in Spring Training.
Houston Astros
Houston addressed the departure of Framber Valdez by signing Tatsuya Imai and Ryan Weiss, while also acquiring Mike Burrows via trade. That trio offers late-draft appeal, and the return of Cristian Javier from injury provides additional upside at a discounted ADP. The Astros also feature considerable Triple-A depth, including Spencer Arrighetti returning from injury, along with control-oriented arms Jason Alexander and Colton Gordon. Hayden Wesneski could also factor into the mix later in 2026.
