Fantasy Index

Analysis

Staying One Step Ahead

Jumping the dynasty market

With The Big Game in the rearview mirror and world champions freshly anointed, the majority of the fantasy football world yawns and turns over for the long sleep. But for a sliver of the hobby, the busy season is only just now at hand.

The impulse to turn away from football from the end of the -ry months until the -ber ones can be quite strong. There won't be any meaningful games for seven months, so why should anybody bother keeping up with the NFL's machinations before training camps kick off?

For some fantasy enthusiasts this approach will serve them well enough, but those sorts are rather self-selectingly unlikely to be playing the year-round variant of our little game. For those of us with dynasty rosters to pad, NFL free agency is 31 days out and counting. Between that and an above average number of coaching changes leaguewide, there's value to be had by the most enterprising among us.

Below is a selection of some players with plausible (if unlikely) paths to significant value turnarounds in the near term. Obviously, your mileage will vary in how cheaply they can be had depending on your league size, format and median leaguemate beetle-headedness.

Quarterbacks

Preface on the QBs: With dynasty in particular, superflex leagues (leagues with a 'super' flex spot where a second quarterback can be, and usually is, started each week) have continued to gain in popularity in recent years. This creates a huge premium on the position, and we'll be looking at most of these guys through that lens - probably none of them move the needle in conventional, 1-QB settings.

Kirk Cousins
We'll get the obvious one out of the way first. Ready to turn the last page on his calamitous chapter in The ATL, Adam Schefter recently teased that Cousins' outright release was imminent - critically, ahead of the open of NFL free agency. That's going to give Cousins a significant jump on a potentially large field of quarterbacks that will be on the move next month, and perhaps even portends that Cousins has already begun feathering a new nest.

We can speculate on landing spots until we're blue (or Skol purple) in the face, but brass tacks: Ever savvy in the business side of the game, Cousins is positioning himself to make starts in 2026. In superflex, that matters. He's probably not hanging out on the waiver wire in most leagues, but a late rookie pick probably pries him loose more often than not. Facing a 2026 rookie cohort that isn't really wowing us, that's a fine price.

Geno Smith
Saying 2025 was a season to forget for Geno is an understatement, as it was for the entire Las Vegas operation. Maybe the entire league determines that Geno was to blame for that but given the appetite for even replacement level quarterback play that exists I'm inclined to think Smith's got a market yet.

Because we can't have nice things, the full hilarity of a Jets reunion probably isn't in the cards, but that's hardly the only avenue here. Smith grew up in the Miami suburbs, and played his college ball in Morgantown, West Virginia - a hop skip and a jump from Pittsburgh. We might have written Geno off, but - well, you know.

Deshaun Watson
I'll give you a moment to recover from any spit take this name may have induced. This one's a strict flyer- odds are that Watson does not play a snap in 2026, so I definitely would not recommend parting with anything of value just to bet on the roulette ball landing on 4.

This is a 'forest for the trees' pick. New Browns' head coach Todd Monken has been tasked with the impossible: Take the Cleveland Browns from being the worst non-Raiders offense in the league to a respectable passing offense, with Jerry Jeudy and a second-year tight end as your primary weapons, a quarterback we don't even believe in - and oh by the way, the entire offensive line is leaving in free agency. Not great!

Monken wants to throw the football, that much we know. If Shedeur Sanders is capable of piloting an aggressive offense, we got zero indications of that down the stretch. Because of Watson, Cleveland will be loathe to add salary in pursuit of a short-term solution and are finally close enough to the end of Watson's contract that letting him back on the football field doesn't create additional risk exposure for them beyond 2026. From Watson's end, he's finally heading into what is effectively a contract year (he's technically under contract thru 2028), and at 30 years old is the same age as Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield.

It's very unlikely to materialize, but the ingredients for a Monken-Watson marriage of convenience are largely in place.

Derek Carr
Now we're really coloring outside the lines. Carr blindsided the majority of us with his abrupt retirement announcement 9 months ago, but it didn't take long for the likely truth of it to shake out. New Orleans was moving on, and rather than hold the organization hostage and collect every dollar coming to him Carr very graciously 'retired', affording New Orleans immediate salary cap relief and costing himself $30 million in additional guarantees he otherwise would have been paid.

Having taken to podcasting with his brother David, Carr's remained effusively positive about the Raiders organization in spite of how things ended there - and wouldn't you know it, Carr's most recent offensive coordinator was new Raiders' head coach, Klint Kubiak. A homecoming with Las Vegas might be the best story, but with several other teams also in need of competent stewardship Carr would certainly generate some interest with or without any from the Raiders - and since the Saints own his rights, no need to wait for free agency to open. If Carr's on the waiver wire in your league, consider stashing him.

Will Levis
It would be fair to say that things have not worked out in Tennessee for Will Levis. Drafted into the final season of Mike Vrabel's tenure, Levis would quickly be undone by the disastrous Ran Carthon-Brian Callahan era in Nashville. Having found the player they preferred to hitch their wagon to in Cam Ward, new Titans' GM Mike Borgonzi did his fellow Bostonian the courtesy of sending him to injured reserve for all of 2025 with an AC joint injury that he easily could have played through - rather than subjecting him to a 'camp battle' with Ward he had no shot at winning.

It's a real lean quarterback class, and the veteran alternatives trend expensive, and either older (Cousins, Smith - Russell Wilson) or possibly more trouble than they're worth (Kyler Murray, Tagovailoa). Levis is a cheap dice roll that shouldn't require more than a Day 3 pick swap to get in the building. With Jimmy Garoppolo set to depart in free agency and Matt Stafford another year older, Levis to the Rams has been floated in a few thought bubbles in recent weeks. If that happens, you'll wish you'd snapped him up on this side of his market value.

Side note: I'm sure some people in the market for this kind of content will wonder why Mac Jones and Jameis Winston didn't get shoutouts. Both have shown enough in the last two years (especially Jones) to justify at least being bridge quarterbacks in 2026. But the problem is that both are under contract with their current teams for another year, and both teams seem keen on keeping them. Mac Jones had a great eight-game run as the 49ers' starter last year, but I don't think it was so good that many GMs are going to be willing to bet their jobs on him in the form of a Day 2 draft pick.

Running Backs

Nick Chubb
Pretty simple dot-connect here: Chubb's heading back to free agency after losing out to rookie Woody Marks in Houston. His glory days came in Cleveland under Kevin Stefanski, who's now in Atlanta - Chubb's hometown team. There's a chance Atlanta opts to retain unrestricted free agent Tyler Allgeier, but odds are he's going to the highest bidder. That would open a serious hole in Atlanta's running back depth chart, one that the veteran Chubb could pretty conceivably plug.

Nathan Carter
Of course, that also might not happen - Atlanta might let Allgeier walk without exerting themselves to replace him. That would be big news for 2025 UDFA Nathan Carter, who boogied for 46 yards in Week 3's blowout loss at Carolina and promptly disappeared down a mineshaft the rest of the way. Carter did show some juice in the preseason though, so there's a path for him to wind up as this year's Emanuel Wilson.

Malik Davis
Hard not to root for a guy like this. Lurking in the shadows as Dallas cycled through running backs the last four years, last October Davis saw his first regular season touches since 2022 en route to by far his most productive stretch in the NFL: 52-250-2 in nine games, with his 103-yard day against Washington in Week 17 the absolute cherry on top. Probable that Davis will be lucky to approach even that modest workload again in 2026 - but the Cowboys have been decidedly chintzy at the running back position the last couple years, and their stated desire to get a deal done with George Pickens figures to keep things that way.

Javonte Williams could wind up a casualty of a potential Pickens contract, and at that point Malik Davis becomes a certified running back of interest for at least as long as it takes Jaydon Blue to get out of Schottenheimer's doghouse.

Brashard Smith
A converted wide receiver with only two seasons as anything resembling a running back under his belt, Smith wouldn't seem to offer a whole lot to be excited about in 2026 - he finished the season with three running backs ahead of him on the Kansas City depth chart. Lucky for him, all three of Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt and the recently acquired Dameon Pierce are bound for free agency next month, along with longtime practice squad body Keaontay Ingram.

Certainly, much will change on that front - under no circumstances will Smith run unopposed as the top guy this summer. But the line ahead of him could thin out a bit, and with real pass-catching ability in a perennially desirable offense, Smith could get on the map in a hurry - depending how these next couple months break in K.C.

Isaiah Davis
It's only February 9th, and already time of death is being called by many on the 2026 New York Jets. And not without good reason; when the owner fires your hotshot offensive coordinator very late in the hiring cycle only to replace him with Frank Reich, you're probably charting a course for a very early draft pick. But calamity can breed opportunity, and even if (when) the Jets franchise tag Breece Hall, that will not cement him in place long-term.

Enter Davis, who bulldozed to 1450 yards for South Dakota State in 2023 and has thus far looked like a legitimate NFL runner. Davis might technically be behind Braelon Allen at the moment, but neither of them were drafted by the current Mougey-Glenn administration and Davis has done more for them lately. Another October with Breece Hall trade rumors coming to the fore this fall seems highly plausible, bordering on likely - if he even makes it to the regular season. With problems to address all over the roster, running back does not figure to be a priority for them in the draft. Davis makes for a quality add.

Chris Rodriguez
Tensions are rising here, folks. Papered over by a season unsurprisingly swept into the sea by injuries suffered by the league's oldest roster, rumors of a power struggle over personnel between GM Adam Peters and Dan Quinn's staff persist. Presumably that includes the Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs. Chris Rodriguez debate; Rodriguez backed by Quinn, Croskey-Merritt favored by the front office that found him last spring.

These sorts of internal disputes are not unheard of - Dallas vice president and director of player personnel Stephen Jones and former Cowboys' head coach Mike McCarthy quietly feuded over Royce Freeman vs. Rico Dowdle a couple of years ago. McCarthy was ultimately thrown overboard and Dowdle along with him, but not before Dowdle won the day over Freeman in 2024. Rodriguez outplayed Croskey-Merritt this season, and Dan Quinn hasn't been thrown overboard yet. Heading into a contract year with his football life hanging in the balance, expect Rodriguez to be highly motivated this summer.

Wide Receivers

Tyquan Thornton
An annual tradition of NFL free agency in recent years has been wide receivers with dubious credentials receiving onerous multi-year contracts on the open market. There are always a few teams each cycle that want to get a real vertical threat, and are willing to pay a pretty penny to get it done. Thornton fits that bill; a Baylor track star, he blazed a sub-4.3 40 at 6'2 1/2" at the 2022 combine, and averaged 23 yards per catch as Patrick Mahomes' preferred jump ball target in the early going this year.

Probably no team should be looking to give Thornton a multi-year deal for making a few nifty catches on balls thrown by a future Hall of Famer, but it figures to happen anyway. If you're in need of cheap depth at the position with a chance to land somewhere that gives his outlook a jolt, Thornton's at least an interesting case.

Malik Washington
I have to wonder if people just flat out don't understand how serious Tyreek Hill's knee injury was, because it doesn't make sense for Washington's market to still be this suppressed. Washington mostly made his mark on special teams (including a 74-yard punt return TD in Week 2), but he averaged 3.3 touches and 0.4 TDs a week over Miami's final 10 games. Washington is plenty dynamic with the ball in his hands and honey badger tough.

He's too stubby to be much of a perimeter player, but the cap-strapped Dolphins may have to just let the best players play next fall. That won't include Tyreek Hill, who will need a miracle to play football in 2026 and in any event will no longer be a Miami Dolphin anyway.

Treylon Burks
Terry McLaurin is 31 and just missed most of the season after a lengthy contract dispute (funny how those two things tend to cohabitate). Deebo Samuel is coming off of a nice little bounce back 2025, but is himself 30 years old and not a certainty to re-sign with Washington. Our in-house affinity for Luke McCaffrey aside, there isn't much behind these two at wide receiver for the 2026 Commanders.

After arriving midseason, Burks quietly went about his business as a modest contributor, but played true starter snaps in the final three games of their lost season. Burks only turns 26 next month, and his career has been derailed by persistent injuries more than anything. Washington will draft a wide receiver, but how early remains to be seen. Burks has a puncher's chance at a role here - if he can finally stay off the trainer's table.

Jerry Jeudy
See above: Todd Monken wants to throw the football, and rookie sensation Harold Fannin can't catch them all. Entirely possible that a Day 1 or early Day 2 rookie receiver shows up on the scene, but Cleveland's got other holes on both sides of the ball that probably demand more attention. Likely to be a forgotten man as Fannin ascends to the top of the offense, Jeudy could nevertheless command 130 targets next season - after all, he piled up 145 with Jameis Winston. If your resident Jeudy owner can't bear the stink of Cleveland offensive exposure any longer, feel free to take him off their hands - for pennies on the dollar, of course.

Jack Bech
The bad man is gone. That's the crux of the argument for Jack Bech: Pete Carroll had clearly lost his touch, Chip Kelly lost the plot, and the Raiders lost another season to irrelevance. Klint Kubiak comes a-riding into Las Vegas like an ol' western hero, bringing real offensive ingenuity to a team that hasn't had it since at least the second Jon Gruden administration. Surely Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty will be the two largest beneficiaries, but there could definitely be room yet for a short area facilitator like Bech to be the chain-moving connective tissue that helps bring the whole thing together.

Tight Ends

Chigoziem Okonkwo
Another year, another 54-ish receptions on 75-ish targets for the one they call "Chig". And those numbers have been against a backdrop of mediocrity for each of Okonkwo's first four NFL seasons - Tennessee hasn't averaged more than 195 yards passing a game since 2021. Reaching free agency for the first time, Tennessee certainly has the money to lure Okonkwo back if they so choose. Wherever he goes, the $7-$10 million per year Okonkwo figures to command in his next contract will come with a stronger target mandate than any he's yet had in the NFL.

David Njoku
Already one of the worst kept secrets in the league, David Njoku took to Instagram today to confirm that his time with the Browns was over. A versatile player that afforded Cleveland playmaking ability without sacrificing anything in the run game, Njoku figures to be an attractive option to teams that want a tight end that doesn't need to be let off the field in obvious running situations.

Travis Kelce
We'll wrap things up with a bit of a curveball. The Aaron Rodgers of tight ends, many are ready for Kelce to walk off into the sunset, if for no other reason than to put to rest all the speculation about when he'll walk off into said sunset. Kelce's market is on the verge of bottoming out right now, but reports are beginning to bubble that he's leaning toward running it back for 2026 - at least. If trading's open in your league and the Kelce owner isn't too plugged in, you might be able to poach him for peanuts and enjoy one last season of above average receiving volume at the tight end position.

—Luke Wilson

Older
Newer

Fantasy Index