It's the final week of the NFL season, with Super Bowl LX coming up. We'll preview the AFC team today, NFC team tomorrow, and full player rankings for the big game on Wednesday. First up, the New England Patriots.
Overview: Really just one notable previous meeting between these teams. In Super Bowl XLIX, played after the 2014 season, New England won 28-24. They clinched the win with a goal-line interception in the final minute, controversially opting for a pass play rather than handing the ball off to Marshawn Lynch, who led the NFL in rushing touchdowns that season. Seattle has won all three meetings since, but just one in the past five years. That was in Week 2 of the 2024 season (23-20 in overtime), but the quarterbacks that day were Geno Smith and Jacoby Brissett. ... Seattle is favored by 4.5, with an over-under of 45.5, implying a 25-20 type of game. ... Early forecast calls for mild temperatures (50-55 degrees), with a 20 percent chance of rain and not much wind.
PATRIOTS
Much has been said about the Patriots' favorable schedule during the season (just three games against teams with winning records), and advantageous playoff draw: injury-riddled Chargers and Texans teams, followed by a Denver team missing its starting quarterback. But the two teams who ranked in the top 5 in both scoring and points allowed during the season are playing in this game, and it's not as if New England didn't hold up fine against the better teams on the schedule (winning at Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Baltimore before winning its three playoff games). Seattle also turned in a lot of its most dominant performances against lesser opposition (six of its nine wins to close out the season were against the Commanders, Cardinals, Titans, Vikings, Falcons and Colts). Arizona scored 3 TDs in its loss, while the Rams scored at least that many three times. With New England having a top-3 offense (yards and points) during the season, they should be good for a couple of touchdowns, with the possibility of a third -- that will probably determine if they are able to spring the upset.
Drake Maye picked up a shoulder injury in the AFC Championship Game. He was limited in practice last week, before being held out entirely on Friday (due to illness). New England is listing him as questionable, but obviously he's playing, and the assumption is that the shoulder injury won't be an issue. Seattle ranked 13th in pass defense during the season, so they're good, but they were toughest against the run, and most better quarterbacks did fine against this secondary. Matthew Stafford threw for 370-plus and 3 TDs each game twice in the past month. Mayfield, Lawrence and Brissett were all over 250 yards with multiple touchdowns. A lot of the better games were early in the season, and they really put the clamps on Brock Purdy twice in the past month. But with Maye averaging 259 passing yards and throwing 31 TDs during the season, reasonable to think he should at least approach his usual numbers. While defense has been the story of New England's postseason, Maye threw for 268 against the Chargers and 3 TDs against the Texans (then didn't have to or couldn't throw much last week with blizzard conditions in the second half).
It's what Maye brings to the table as a runner that makes him look best of the two quarterbacks in this game. During the season he averaged 27 yards, with 4 touchdowns, and he's gone for 65-66 yards in two of the three playoff games, with 1 TD (just 10 in the defense-dominated win over Houston). His counterpart averaged under 6 rushing yards during the season (9 total the last two weeks) and didn't run in a touchdown all year.
For whatever reason, the Patriots have put all their trust in Rhamondre Stevenson lately. It was a one-two punch with TreVeyon Henderson for most of the season, and with the rookie averaging 2 more carries (11-9) and 11 more rushing yards (54-43) per game. But Henderson wasn't effective in the first two playoff games (21 carries for 52 yards) and barely got on the field at Denver, carrying 3 times for 5 yards while playing all of 4 snaps. Presumably he'll have a bigger role this week, with him offering more big-play potential, but with this being a similarly tough run defense (3rd) to Denver, he doesn't look safe to use. He's been dropped entirely from the passing game, with a total of 3 catches in his last six games.
Stevenson (who ran for 81 yards and a touchdown in the 2024 game) played throughout the Denver game; not efficient (25 carries for 71 yards), but a workhorse. He was a lot more effective in the previous two playoff games (26 carries for 123 yards), and they're featuring him in the passing game. In his last five he's caught 14 passes and 2 TDs on 17 targets, averaging 33 yards as a receiver. Tough matchup here, but that usage makes him look pretty safe for good all-around numbers even if he's bottled up on the ground. Scoring chances don't look great though, with Seattle allowing only 9 rushing scores in 19 games (none against the 49ers and Rams the last two weeks), and Stevenson's quarterback looking similarly likely to get in the end zone.
Averaging 5 receptions and 60 yards during the season, with 4 TDs, Stefon Diggs is the closest New England has to a go-to wideout. He's seen 5-6 targets in each playoff game (with his quarterback averaging just 26 attempts), and while his 11 receptions haven't made much of an impact (16, 40 and 17 yards, with 1 TD), more passing should be required in this matchup.
Latching onto another New England wideout is difficult. During the season, Mack Hollins, Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas all averaged 2-3 catches per week. Hollins looks like the best bet for receptions, with at least 4 catches in five of his last nine games (and 19 more targets than Boutte in just one more contest). But Boutte, who outscored him 6-2, has more of a red-zone role, and looks more reliable with Hollins having missed the past month due to injury. Each was on the field as often at Denver, but Boutte had 4 more passes thrown his way (6-2). Douglas played just 20 percent of the snaps in that one, and looks shaky with everyone else healthy. He's finished with no more than 2 catches seven games in a row.
The Patriots have a couple of rookies in Kyle Williams and Efton Chism, but neither can be used. Williams caught 3 TDs but only 7 other passes during the season; not targeted while playing a quarter of the snaps at Denver. Chism was inactive for that game.
Hunter Henry might be New England's leading receiver (and definitely the best tight end option) in this game. He's been more of a blocker the last two week (3 catches in those) but went for 64 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers and averaged 3.5 catches for 45 yards during the season, with a team-high 7 touchdowns. Seattle has been vulnerable to the tight end in the playoffs, with Jake Tonges catching 5 for 59 (all in the first half before getting hurt) and LA's top 2 combining for 4 for 74 last week. They allowed an ordinary 6 TDs to tight ends during the season, but a comparatively stingy 12 TDs to wide receivers. New England isn't throwing to its second tight end, Austin Hooper, very often (21 catches and 2 TDs all season).
Andres Borregales was pretty solid during the season, and his 2 misses at Denver were from 63 and -- in blizzard conditions -- 46 yards. Seattle allowed just 25 field goals during the season, but that's 6 more than New England. Definitely the 2nd-best kicker in this game, though, with Jason Myers coming off a record 171-point season.
If New England is to pull off the upset, it will probably be due to some big plays from the Patriots Defense. Sam Darnold has been excellent in the postseason and very good for most of the season, but he's also been shaky at times in his career, and in 2025. He had a league-high 20 turnovers during the season: 14 interceptions, 6 lost fumbles. None the last two weeks, but he took 5 sacks (9 the last three weeks of the season, though just 18 in his first 14 games).
New England was below average (35 sacks and 19 takeaways) in both areas during the season, but lights out in the postseason: 12 sacks and 8 takeaways -- granted, some help from opposing quarterbacks on a few of those plays. The Patriots scored 3 TDs on returns during the season, although Seattle (with Rashid Shaheed) look a little more likely for such a score.
Next: Seattle Seahawks.
--Andy Richardson
