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Let's Cook?

Bills back will probably take a step back

James Cook led the league in rushing last season, and with Buffalo promoting its offensive coordinator to head coach, things shouldn't change for him too much. But history suggests at least a slight decline is coming.

Win a rushing title, and you probably endured a lot of wear and tear. The next season, if history is any guide, can involve anything from a lessened role, to injury, to contract squabbles. Seldom does it involve another elite season, in fantasy terms at least.

Table shows the NFL's last 10 rushing champions -- their stats that year, and their stats a year later. Just 2 of them posted top-10 numbers (PPR leagues). Six of the 10 missed at least five games the next season (three missed more than half the year). That's the not so great history.

NFL RUSHING CHAMPS, ONE YEAR LATER
YearPlayerRunTDG(nx)Run(nx)TD(nx)Rk(nx)
2015Adrian Peterson, Min.1485113720122
2016Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.16311610983912
2017Kareem Hunt, K.C.132711118241412
2018Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.14349161357143
2019Derrick Henry, Ten.154018162027173
2020Derrick Henry, Ten.20271789371022
2021Jonathan Taylor, Ind.18112011861433
2022Josh Jacobs, L.V.16531213805627
2023Christian McCaffrey, S.F.1459214202069
2024Saquon Barkley, Phil.200515161140914
2025James Cook, Buff.162114????

The two guys who came back a year later with top-10 numbers at their position are in bold. (And two others did come back and finish 12th -- not too shabby.) Derrick Henry actually came back and led the league in rushing again, while Ezekiel Elliott finished 3rd among running backs in PPR scoring a year later. So it does happen.

I'm not suggesting a big decline from Cook, but seems like he'll be drafted earlier at the position than he's likely to finish in 2026.

--Andy Richardson

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