In the comments on an article over the weekend, there was a brief mention of how often good players come from bad teams. I thought I'd take a look at it. The numbers were even more daunting than I expected.
I looked at players from all teams to win 5 or fewer games in any of the past five seasons. A total of 33 teams met the criteria; about 7 per season.
Great fantasy players from those teams were few and far between.
Very good fantasy players weren't much better.
The first table shows all players (quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends) who ranked in the top 10 at their position in PPR leagues from those 33 teams. There were only 10 of them, total; just 2 per year. Half of them were tight ends; there were also 4 wide receivers (including Michael Wilson last year, pictured). Just a single running back, and no quarterbacks.
| TOP-10 PLAYERS FROM 5-WIN TEAMS, 2021-2025 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2025 | Trey McBride, Ari. | 0 | 126 | 1239 | 11 | 1 |
| 2025 | Michael Wilson, Ari. | 0 | 78 | 1006 | 7 | 10 |
| 2025 | Harold Fannin, Cle. | 13 | 72 | 731 | 7 | 6 |
| 2024 | Brian Thomas, Jac. | 48 | 87 | 1282 | 10 | 4 |
| 2024 | Brock Bowers, L.V. | 13 | 112 | 1194 | 5 | 1 |
| 2024 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 950 | 68 | 543 | 8 | 9 |
| 2024 | Malik Nabers, NYG | 2 | 109 | 1204 | 7 | 6 |
| 2023 | Trey McBride, Ari. | 0 | 81 | 825 | 3 | 7 |
| 2023 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 6 | 108 | 1243 | 7 | 8 |
| 2022 | Cole Kmet, Chi. | 9 | 50 | 544 | 7 | 9 |
In the last five years, 200 players finished in the top 10 at their positions (50 each of QB, RB, WR and TE). Just 5 percent of them came from teams that won 5 or fewer games. Ugly.
I then expanded the search to top-20 players. Everyone can't be in the top 10; filling a fantasy roster with players who finish 11th-20th at their positions can still work out pretty well. There are more such players, but the numbers still aren't great.
A total of 36 players out of 200 (18 percent; a little less than 1 in 5) who ranked 11th-20th at their positions in PPR leagues came from teams who won 5 or fewer games. Seven quarterbacks and 8 running backs; a little more than 1 per season. A third of the players (12) are tight ends, and needless to say, nobody goes into a draft hoping to land a tight end that finishes in the top 20 at his position. Tight ends ranking 11-20: big deal. Back in 2022, no one was being carried to fantasy championships by Jordan Akins.
| PLAYERS RANKED 11-20 AT THEIR POSITIONS, 2021-2025 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pass | TD | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2025 | Brock Bowers, L.V. | 0 | 0 | 2 | 64 | 680 | 7 | 11 |
| 2025 | Ashton Jeanty, L.V. | 0 | 0 | 975 | 55 | 346 | 10 | 11 |
| 2025 | Jacoby Brissett, Ari. | 3366 | 23 | 168 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 |
| 2025 | Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG | 0 | 0 | 5 | 92 | 1014 | 4 | 14 |
| 2025 | Jaxson Dart, NYG | 2272 | 15 | 487 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 2025 | Theo Johnson, NYG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 528 | 5 | 18 |
| 2025 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 4 | 1 | 1065 | 36 | 350 | 5 | 19 |
| 2025 | Zach Ertz, Was. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 504 | 4 | 19 |
| 2024 | David Njoku, Cle. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64 | 505 | 5 | 11 |
| 2024 | Davante Adams, 2TM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 1063 | 8 | 12 |
| 2024 | Hunter Henry, N.E. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 674 | 2 | 12 |
| 2024 | Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 0 | 0 | 1195 | 43 | 171 | 11 | 13 |
| 2024 | Jerry Jeudy, Cle. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 1229 | 4 | 13 |
| 2024 | DJ Moore, Chi. | 0 | 0 | 75 | 98 | 966 | 6 | 16 |
| 2024 | Caleb Williams, Chi. | 3541 | 20 | 489 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| 2024 | Juwan Johnson, N.O. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 548 | 3 | 17 |
| 2024 | Cole Kmet, Chi. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 474 | 4 | 19 |
| 2024 | D'Andre Swift, Chi. | 0 | 0 | 959 | 42 | 386 | 6 | 19 |
| 2024 | Jakobi Meyers, L.V. | 0 | 0 | 23 | 87 | 1027 | 4 | 19 |
| 2023 | Sam Howell, Was. | 3946 | 21 | 263 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 |
| 2023 | Logan Thomas, Was. | 0 | 0 | 2 | 55 | 496 | 4 | 16 |
| 2023 | Adam Thielen, Car. | 0 | 0 | 6 | 103 | 1014 | 4 | 17 |
| 2023 | Brian Robinson, Was. | 0 | 0 | 733 | 36 | 368 | 9 | 18 |
| 2023 | James Conner, Ari. | 0 | 0 | 1040 | 27 | 165 | 9 | 19 |
| 2023 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 3134 | 20 | 228 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 19 |
| 2023 | Hunter Henry, N.E. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 419 | 6 | 19 |
| 2022 | Russell Wilson, Den. | 3524 | 16 | 277 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 2022 | Jordan Akins, Hou. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 495 | 5 | 18 |
| 2022 | Zach Ertz, Ari. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 406 | 4 | 19 |
| 2022 | James Conner, Ari. | 0 | 0 | 782 | 46 | 300 | 8 | 19 |
| 2022 | Davis Mills, Hou. | 3118 | 17 | 108 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 |
| 2022 | Michael Pittman, Ind. | 0 | 0 | 30 | 99 | 925 | 4 | 20 |
| 2021 | T.J. Hockenson, Det. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 583 | 4 | 15 |
| 2021 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 0 | 0 | 617 | 62 | 452 | 7 | 15 |
| 2021 | DJ Moore, Car. | 0 | 0 | 48 | 93 | 1157 | 4 | 17 |
| 2021 | Brandin Cooks, Hou. | 0 | 0 | 21 | 90 | 1037 | 6 | 20 |
Looking at my own top 20s for this season, I'm encouraged to see I don't have a ton of players from teams I expect to win 5 or fewer games. But even still, there might be too many. Certainly nobody is leaving McBride or Bowers out of their top 10, and it's hard to rank Achane, Jeanty or Fannin much lower than that in PPR leagues. But the deck is definitely stacked against the likes of Jeremiyah Love, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Those guys finishing in the top 10 at their positions is definitely the exception rather than the rule. Even the top 20, the odds are against them.
So definitely lower expectations for skill players from what seem to be this year's doormat franchises: Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns. We can't say for sure that those teams (and others: Jets, Raiders) will be winning 5 or fewer games. But pretty good chance of it, and relatively few standout performers.
