It's an old, familiar story. Alpha wideout entering a contract year; no one is surprised when talk of some sort of standoff materializes. So an Athletic writer predicting that's coming with Steelers No. 1 George Pickens doesn't raise any eyebrows.
With Pickens, the play on the field has been impressive his first three seasons, especially considering the level of quarterbacking he's had. But there have been plenty of down games, and long stretches where his major contributions have included poor body language and incidents like sparring with opposing defenders in the end zone while a Hail Mary was heading his way.
The Steelers are no strangers to contract standoffs with star players, and they've let plenty of those guys walk rather than re-up with them. But seldom has their depth at wideout looked worse than right now; their No. 2 last year, Calvin Austin, averaged 2 catches and 32 yards per game. What Pittsburgh does at quarterback is the big issue for this team, but wide receiver is the 2nd-biggest concern.
The Athletic's Mike DeFabo suggests a "hold-in", where Pickens reports but doesn't practice or play without a new contract. Last year's Brandon Aiyuk situation went along those lines, before the 49ers eventually caved (and Aiyuk got hurt).
I've been thinking Pittsburgh would run into problems with Pickens. But it was only after looking at some numbers that I appreciated just how good he's been his first three seasons. In terms of yards per target, most notably, he's been one of NFL's best wide receivers during his three seasons.
Table below shows all wide receivers with at least 250 targets over the past three years; there are 38 such players. No. 1 in terms of yards per target, ironically enough, is Aiyuk. Only other guys better than Pickens are Jaylen Waddle, Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins and A.J. Brown. Pickens' quarterback situation has been worse than all of those guys for at least a couple of those seasons, which I think his catch rate -- in that respect, only five players in this table are worse -- speaks to. But he's been able to do quite a bit with the catchable passes sent his way.
| WIDE RECEIVERS YARDS PER TARGET, 2022-2024 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Ctch% | Y/Tgt |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 40 | 266 | 178 | 2731 | 15.3 | 15 | 66.9 | 10.3 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 46 | 304 | 205 | 3114 | 15.2 | 14 | 67.4 | 10.2 |
| Nico Collins | 37 | 274 | 185 | 2784 | 15.0 | 17 | 67.5 | 10.2 |
| Justin Jefferson | 44 | 438 | 299 | 4416 | 14.8 | 23 | 68.3 | 10.1 |
| A.J. Brown | 47 | 400 | 261 | 4031 | 15.4 | 25 | 65.3 | 10.1 |
| George Pickens | 48 | 293 | 174 | 2841 | 16.3 | 12 | 59.4 | 9.7 |
| Tyreek Hill | 50 | 464 | 319 | 4468 | 14.0 | 26 | 68.8 | 9.6 |
| Puka Nacua | 28 | 266 | 184 | 2476 | 13.5 | 9 | 69.2 | 9.3 |
| DeVonta Smith | 46 | 337 | 244 | 3095 | 12.7 | 22 | 72.4 | 9.2 |
| Mike Evans | 46 | 373 | 230 | 3383 | 14.7 | 30 | 61.7 | 9.1 |
| Terry McLaurin | 51 | 369 | 238 | 3289 | 13.8 | 22 | 64.5 | 8.9 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 48 | 332 | 211 | 2959 | 14.0 | 12 | 63.6 | 8.9 |
| Tee Higgins | 40 | 294 | 189 | 2596 | 13.7 | 22 | 64.3 | 8.8 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 49 | 489 | 343 | 4302 | 12.5 | 27 | 70.1 | 8.8 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 45 | 454 | 314 | 3970 | 12.6 | 33 | 69.2 | 8.7 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 49 | 451 | 340 | 3939 | 11.6 | 28 | 75.4 | 8.7 |
| Christian Kirk | 37 | 265 | 168 | 2274 | 13.5 | 12 | 63.4 | 8.6 |
| Amari Cooper | 46 | 345 | 194 | 2957 | 15.2 | 18 | 56.2 | 8.6 |
| D.K. Metcalf | 48 | 368 | 222 | 3154 | 14.2 | 19 | 60.3 | 8.6 |
| Chris Olave | 39 | 301 | 191 | 2565 | 13.4 | 10 | 63.5 | 8.5 |
| Deebo Samuel | 43 | 264 | 167 | 2194 | 13.1 | 12 | 63.3 | 8.3 |
| Stefon Diggs | 41 | 378 | 262 | 3108 | 11.9 | 22 | 69.3 | 8.2 |
| D.J. Moore | 51 | 394 | 257 | 3218 | 12.5 | 21 | 65.2 | 8.2 |
| Tyler Lockett | 50 | 313 | 212 | 2527 | 11.9 | 16 | 67.7 | 8.1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 48 | 334 | 204 | 2682 | 13.1 | 20 | 61.1 | 8.0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 45 | 331 | 225 | 2638 | 11.7 | 18 | 68.0 | 8.0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 34 | 256 | 140 | 2033 | 14.5 | 12 | 54.7 | 7.9 |
| Drake London | 50 | 385 | 241 | 3042 | 12.6 | 15 | 62.6 | 7.9 |
| Chris Godwin | 39 | 334 | 237 | 2623 | 11.1 | 10 | 71.0 | 7.9 |
| Cooper Kupp | 33 | 293 | 201 | 2259 | 11.2 | 17 | 68.6 | 7.7 |
| Adam Thielen | 44 | 306 | 221 | 2345 | 10.6 | 15 | 72.2 | 7.7 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 42 | 313 | 195 | 2384 | 12.2 | 15 | 62.3 | 7.6 |
| Keenan Allen | 38 | 360 | 244 | 2739 | 11.2 | 18 | 67.8 | 7.6 |
| Davante Adams | 48 | 496 | 288 | 3723 | 12.9 | 30 | 58.1 | 7.5 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 48 | 408 | 277 | 2885 | 10.4 | 11 | 67.9 | 7.1 |
| Garrett Wilson | 51 | 469 | 279 | 3249 | 11.6 | 14 | 59.5 | 6.9 |
| Diontae Johnson | 42 | 301 | 170 | 1974 | 11.6 | 8 | 56.5 | 6.6 |
| Elijah Moore | 50 | 271 | 157 | 1624 | 10.3 | 4 | 57.9 | 6.0 |
I can't really argue with players wanting to get paid rather than playing out the last year of their contract. As the Aiyuk situation last year showed, these guys are just a play away from their earning potential being dramatically affected. No wonder they want some job security.
Regardless, it's hard not to be a little nervous about the offseason in Pittsburgh. No quarterback under contract, top wideout wanting a new one, and they're probably letting their top running back walk, too. I have Pickens in a dynasty league, and despite the obvious talent, I'll probably be hoping I can move him for someone with a little more stability in 2025 than he seems likely to have.
--Andy Richardson