Ben Johnson is leaving the Lions, but he’s staying in the NFC North. He agreed to a deal today to take over as the head coach of the Lions.
On the surface, this seems like a good development for Caleb Williams. In Johnson’s three seasons as Detroit’s offensive coordinator, the Lions averaged a league-high 29 points – 2 more than every team except Buffalo. He should be better (perhaps a lot better) than last year’s staff at drawing up more plays that give Williams easier options.
At the same time, Chicago’s talent level isn’t in the same league as what Johnson was working with in Detroit. The Lions have one of the league’s best offensive lines, while the Bears have one of the worst. Detroit has Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery at tailback, while Chicago finished last year with D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson.
The pass catchers look comparable, assuming there’s some ascension from Rome Odunze. Without some question, DJ Moore and Cole Kmet are solid players. But it will be harder to finish with above-average numbers with Chicago’s roster.
The other issue here is whether Johnson can evolve from offensive coordinator to head coach. Can he command the room and be a leader of men? Can he build a culture? Or is he a guy who’s better suited to a simpler role – calling up plays?
By my count, 19 times in the last 10 years, teams have gone the up-and-coming offensive mind route when hiring head coaches. Only four of those guys have done a lot more winning than losing (Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur, Nick Sirianni and Kevin O’Connell). Two others at least have winning records, and two others have taken teams to Super Bowls. But twice as many of those coaches have losing records.
Typically with these kind of coaches, it’s hard to instantly put together a good offense. If we assume 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards, only four of those 19 teams in their first season finished with top-10 numbers.
Eleven of the 19, at least, got better in their first season.
In the chart below, it includes the career win-loss records for all offensive coaches hired in the last 10 years. The “offensive rank” gives a general 1 thru 32 ranking of their offense in their first year, using simply, standard fantasy scoring. The final number (“Previous”) shows how the team ranked in the season before hiring the coach.
(Four coaches putting together top-10 offense in their first year are tagged with black dots.)
| OFFENSIVE GURU HIRES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Coach | Record | Off Rk | Prev |
| 2016 | Dirk Koetter | 19-29 | 16th | 15th |
| 2016 | Adam Gase | 32-48 | 17th | 23rd |
| 2016 | Doug Pederson | 64-66-1 | 23rd | 11th |
| 2016 | Ben McAdoo | 13-15 | 25th | 9th |
| 2017 | • Sean McVay | 80-52 | 4th | 32nd |
| 2018 | Matt Nagy | 34-31 | 17th | 31st |
| 2018 | • Frank Reich | 41-43-1 | 6th | 32nd |
| 2019 | Matt LaFleur | 67-33 | 14th | 13th |
| 2019 | Zac Taylor | 46-52-1 | 27th | 23rd |
| 2020 | Kevin Stefanski | 40-44 | 12th | 21st |
| 2021 | Nick Sirianni | 48-20 | 15th | 22nd |
| 2021 | Arthur Smith | 21-30 | 28th | 18th |
| 2022 | Brian Daboll | 18-32-1 | 16th | 32nd |
| 2022 | Nathaniel Hackett | 4-11 | 24th | 20th |
| 2022 | • Kevin O'Connell | 34-17 | 6th | 14th |
| 2022 | • Mike McDaniel | 28-23 | 9th | 26th |
| 2023 | Shane Steichen | 17-17 | 16th | 30th |
| 2024 | Dave Canales | 5-12 | 24th | 31st |
| 2024 | Brian Callahan | 3-14 | 26th | 27th |
| 2025 | Ben Johnson | 0-0 | ? | 28th |
—Ian Allan