News out of New Orleans yesterday that high-priced starting quarterback Derek Carr has a throwing shoulder injury that "threatens his availability for the 2025 season."
This is weird in part because just a month ago, the team converted his salary for the upcoming season into a signing bonus, which seems to tie them to him for the season. The move was made for cap reasons, but it's reasonable to wonder if they had any idea they'd be tying themselves to a guy who is apparently weighing major surgery.
New Orleans has the 9th overall pick in the upcoming draft, and this development makes it seem increasingly likely they'll be selecting a quarterback with that pick. Maybe Colorado's Shedeur Sanders is there, or maybe Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart.
I think we can say with some confidence New Orleans does not currently have a promising Plan B. Jake Haener, a fourth-round pick two years ago, is not viable: 18 0f 39 while taking 6 sacks in his game action last year.
Spencer Rattler, the team's fifth-round pick a year ago, perhaps has some fans. But Rattler struggled mightily in his six starts last year (all losses), completing 57 percent while throwing 5 interceptions and taking 22 sacks. I got to see Rattler play in person at South Carolina, and while he's got some mobility (he averaged 21 rushing yards last year) and competitiveness, there's not much reason to think he has much of a future as an NFL starter. Rare that those guys slip to the fifth round, and he's on the small side (6-0, 211). Best-case scenario for him he opens as the starter, but is on borrowed time as they get a rookie up to speed.
As for Carr, who somehow went to three straight Pro Bowls at the beginning of his career and once had a 12-3 season (no, really) as the Raiders' starting quarterback, I think we can say with some degree of certainty that it's over for him. Probably as an NFL quarterback, and definitely as a fantasy option.
He's 34 years old, and it sounds like he might be 35 before he steps on an NFL field again. His last three years -- one in Las Vegas, two in New Orleans -- have been pretty forgettable. He's gone 20-22, his passing numbers have been pretty modest, and since he doesn't run at all, there's not much to get excited about from a fantasy perspective.
Among the 25 quarterbacks who've started at least half the time the past three seasons, only four have averaged fewer fantasy points in typical leagues than Carr. One of those guys is currently a backup, one won't necessarily be drafted in any leagues, and two are elderly guys who play like they're nailed to the turf.
| QUARTERBACKS PER GAME, 2022-2024 (STARTED HALF THE TIME) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | PYd | TDP | RYd | TDR | Pts |
| Josh Allen | 50 | 246.4 | 1.84 | 36.3 | .70 | 27.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | 47 | 222.6 | 1.34 | 42.4 | .89 | 26.2 |
| Lamar Jackson | 45 | 224.3 | 1.82 | 55.6 | .27 | 25.8 |
| Joe Burrow | 43 | 272.1 | 2.16 | 12.7 | .16 | 24.6 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 49 | 272.7 | 1.92 | 21.5 | .12 | 24.3 |
| Brock Purdy | 36 | 256.7 | 1.72 | 13.3 | .22 | 22.4 |
| Dak Prescott | 37 | 252.8 | 1.89 | 12.9 | .11 | 22.3 |
| Justin Fields | 34 | 173.8 | 1.12 | 59.7 | .50 | 22.2 |
| Jared Goff | 51 | 267.5 | 1.88 | 2.9 | .06 | 21.7 |
| Kyler Murray | 36 | 222.7 | 1.25 | 34.3 | .31 | 21.7 |
| Jordan Love | 32 | 235.9 | 1.78 | 10.3 | .16 | 21.2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 41 | 269.2 | 1.78 | 4.7 | .00 | 21.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 43 | 236.6 | 1.33 | 17.4 | .28 | 20.9 |
| Baker Mayfield | 44 | 234.6 | 1.73 | 14.1 | .11 | 20.9 |
| Kirk Cousins | 39 | 266.3 | 1.67 | 3.1 | .05 | 20.8 |
| Justin Herbert | 47 | 249.9 | 1.45 | 14.5 | .11 | 20.6 |
| Geno Smith | 49 | 249.5 | 1.45 | 16.2 | .08 | 20.5 |
| Russell Wilson | 41 | 221.4 | 1.41 | 18.9 | .20 | 19.9 |
| C.J. Stroud | 32 | 244.8 | 1.34 | 12.5 | .09 | 19.5 |
| Daniel Jones | 32 | 193.3 | .78 | 36.8 | .31 | 18.5 |
| Derek Carr | 42 | 227.3 | 1.52 | 5.1 | .02 | 18.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | 40 | 245.4 | 1.35 | 2.9 | .03 | 18.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 35 | 216.9 | 1.54 | 5.7 | .03 | 18.0 |
| Bryce Young | 28 | 186.6 | .93 | 17.6 | .21 | 16.2 |
| Mac Jones | 32 | 203.9 | .94 | 8.9 | .06 | 15.3 |
Given that, Carr wouldn't be particularly desirable even if he were starting this year. And it sounds like he won't be anyway. Look for New Orleans to be drafting a quarterback, probably in the top 10.
--Andy Richardson