The NFL Draft is just over a week away, and if reports can be believed (and it's a big if) there's little consensus on Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders. He'll be a top 3 pick! He'll fall out of the first round! It's nuts.
The latest report from Adam Schefter has the Giants, who have the 3rd pick in the draft, holding one last private workout with Deion Sanders' pride and joy. That's unusual; with the draft this close, usually you don't hear much about player workouts. The fact that it's happening suggests the Giants are torn on the NFL future for what seems to be one of the draft's most polarizing players.
One of the things we've talked about here regarding Sanders is his tendency to hold onto the ball. He was sacked 42 times for Colorado last year, most in all of college football. Quarterbacks who absorbed a lot of sacks in college have tended to struggle in that regard in the pros, with Justin Fields the most notable recent example.
For a more positive factoid, Sanders seems to be pretty accurate. He completed 74 percent of his passes last year, which was also an NCAA-best figure among regular starting quarterbacks. Guys close were Ohio State's Will Howard (73.1) and Oregon's Dillon Gabriel (72.9), who will not be first-round picks.
While a high completion percentage is a good thing, it should be noted that Sanders' came while averaging just 8.7 yards per attempt. In general you like to see that number higher, as it's indicative of what quarterbacks are trying to do -- looking downfield, pushing for bigger plays. (The best number from the last 40 years among quarterbacks selected in the first round was 11.7, and, that guy looks pretty good so far: last year's No. 2 overall pick, Jayden Daniels.) Sanders' 8.7 is in the bottom third of first-round quarterbacks from the last decade.
Table shows final year of college passing stats from the last 10 years of first-round quarterbacks, including the four that are either expected or at least speculated to be first-rounders this year, sorted by yards per attempt.
| FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE PASSING STATS, 1ST-RD QBS (2015-PRESENT) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Com | Att | Pct | P Yds | YPA | TDP | Int |
| 2024 | 2 | Jayden Daniels | 236 | 327 | 72.2 | 3812 | 11.66 | 40 | 4 |
| 2019 | 1 | Kyler Murray | 260 | 377 | 69.0 | 4361 | 11.57 | 42 | 7 |
| 2018 | 1 | Baker Mayfield | 285 | 404 | 70.5 | 4627 | 11.45 | 43 | 6 |
| 2020 | 5 | Tua Tagovailoa | 180 | 252 | 71.4 | 2840 | 11.27 | 33 | 3 |
| 2021 | 15 | Mac Jones | 311 | 402 | 77.4 | 4500 | 11.19 | 41 | 4 |
| 2021 | 2 | Zach Wilson | 247 | 336 | 73.5 | 3692 | 10.99 | 33 | 3 |
| 2020 | 1 | Joe Burrow | 402 | 527 | 76.3 | 5671 | 10.76 | 60 | 6 |
| 2025 | ? | Jaxson Dart | 276 | 398 | 69.3 | 4279 | 10.75 | 29 | 6 |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota | 304 | 445 | 68.3 | 4454 | 10.01 | 42 | 4 |
| 2021 | 3 | Trey Lance | 192 | 287 | 66.9 | 2786 | 9.71 | 28 | 0 |
| 2024 | 12 | Bo Nix | 364 | 470 | 77.4 | 4508 | 9.59 | 45 | 3 |
| 2025 | ? | Cameron Ward | 305 | 454 | 67.2 | 4313 | 9.50 | 39 | 7 |
| 2023 | 2 | C.J. Stroud | 258 | 389 | 66.3 | 3688 | 9.48 | 41 | 6 |
| 2021 | 1 | Trevor Lawrence | 231 | 334 | 69.2 | 3153 | 9.44 | 24 | 9 |
| 2024 | 1 | Caleb Williams | 266 | 388 | 68.6 | 3633 | 9.36 | 30 | 5 |
| 2021 | 10 | Justin Fields | 158 | 225 | 70.2 | 2100 | 9.33 | 22 | 6 |
| 2019 | 15 | Dwayne Haskins | 373 | 533 | 70.0 | 4831 | 9.06 | 50 | 8 |
| 2024 | 10 | J.J. McCarthy | 240 | 332 | 72.3 | 2991 | 9.01 | 22 | 4 |
| 2016 | 1 | Jared Goff | 341 | 529 | 64.5 | 4719 | 8.92 | 43 | 13 |
| 2025 | ? | Jalen Milroe | 205 | 319 | 64.3 | 2844 | 8.92 | 16 | 11 |
| 2024 | 8 | Michael Penix | 363 | 555 | 65.4 | 4903 | 8.83 | 36 | 11 |
| 2023 | 1 | Bryce Young | 245 | 380 | 64.5 | 3328 | 8.76 | 32 | 5 |
| 2022 | 20 | Kenny Pickett | 334 | 497 | 67.2 | 4319 | 8.69 | 42 | 7 |
| 2025 | ? | Shedeur Sanders | 353 | 477 | 74.0 | 4134 | 8.67 | 37 | 10 |
| 2018 | 3 | Sam Darnold | 303 | 480 | 63.1 | 4143 | 8.63 | 26 | 13 |
| 2017 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes | 388 | 591 | 65.7 | 5052 | 8.55 | 41 | 10 |
| 2016 | 26 | Paxton Lynch | 296 | 443 | 66.8 | 3776 | 8.52 | 28 | 4 |
| 2018 | 32 | Lamar Jackson | 254 | 430 | 59.1 | 3660 | 8.51 | 27 | 10 |
| 2024 | 3 | Drake Maye | 269 | 425 | 63.3 | 3608 | 8.49 | 24 | 9 |
| 2017 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky | 304 | 447 | 68.0 | 3748 | 8.38 | 30 | 6 |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston | 305 | 467 | 65.3 | 3907 | 8.37 | 25 | 18 |
| 2018 | 10 | Josh Rosen | 283 | 452 | 62.6 | 3756 | 8.31 | 26 | 10 |
| 2020 | 6 | Justin Herbert | 286 | 428 | 66.8 | 3471 | 8.11 | 32 | 6 |
| 2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz | 130 | 208 | 62.5 | 1651 | 7.94 | 17 | 4 |
| 2017 | 12 | Deshaun Watson | 388 | 579 | 67.0 | 4593 | 7.93 | 41 | 17 |
| 2023 | 4 | Anthony Richardson | 176 | 327 | 53.8 | 2549 | 7.80 | 17 | 9 |
| 2020 | 26 | Jordan Love | 293 | 473 | 61.9 | 3402 | 7.19 | 20 | 17 |
| 2019 | 6 | Daniel Jones | 237 | 392 | 60.5 | 2674 | 6.82 | 22 | 9 |
| 2018 | 7 | Josh Allen | 152 | 270 | 56.3 | 1812 | 6.71 | 16 | 6 |
Looking at the table, it's pretty easy to see guys who dispel the notion that this is an important, predictive stat. Josh Allen is at the bottom, and Justin Herbert is also down there, and those guys have worked out pretty well. Two of the top 6 performers in this metric are Zach Wilson and Mac Jones. So these are numbers we look at and take note of, but they're not the end-all and be-all.
I'm sticking with the idea that Sanders will be drafted in the top 10 picks. Franchise quarterbacks are so important these days, teams in need of a player at the position are going to be very wary of passing over one of them and regretting it. True, burning a high pick on one and missing can set a franchise back for years. But I think someone will take the plunge.
I hope that Sanders is selected by a team that has a good veteran option in place (or two, as the Giants do), as well as a good offensive coaching mind. Sanders would be best served, I think, by sitting for a year and being coached up, including on things like getting the ball out of his hands quickly. I don't know if it will be the Giants, but Brian Daboll did some good things with the aforementioned Josh Allen, so seems like it would be a plus. Watching Russell Wilson take 3 sacks per game might be instructive for Sanders.
Regardless, I'm not buying this falling out of the first round talk. There are legitimate questions about his NFL future, but enough upside that someone will roll the dice.
--Andy Richardson