It’s starting to look like it might not happen for Dalton Kincaid. Rather than ascending in his second season, he got worse. The team didn’t use him much, and he wasn’t effective with his limited opportunities.
Buffalo’s season ended with Kincaid dropping an underthrown fourth-down pass in the AFC Championship game.
Kincaid looked reasonable enough as a rookie, averaging 4.5 catches for 44 yards in 18 games, with 3 TDs. They picked him in the first round, and there was seemingly some chance of him developing into a top-5 player at his position.
But rather than getting better in his second season, Kincaid got worse. He averaged over a catch less per game, and he caught only 2 TDs in 16 games. He also averaged only 10.2 yards per catch.
Some of the decline can be attributed to the team’s scheme. It relied more on the run and less on the pass. But Kincaid was both unproductive and inefficient. That is, when the team looked his way, good things didn’t tend to happen.
Josh Allen sent 75 passes in the direction of Kincaid, but only 59 percent of them were completed. Thirty other tight ends last year saw at least 50 targets, and they all finished over 62 percent.
| TIGHT ENDS, CATCH RATES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Pct |
| Cole Kmet, Chi. | 55 | 47 | 474 | 10.1 | 4 | 85.5% |
| Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 78 | 65 | 653 | 10.0 | 7 | 83.3% |
| George Kittle, S.F. | 94 | 78 | 1,106 | 14.2 | 8 | 83.0% |
| Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 52 | 42 | 496 | 11.8 | 2 | 80.8% |
| Mark Andrews, Balt. | 69 | 55 | 673 | 12.2 | 11 | 79.7% |
| Jonnu Smith, Mia. | 111 | 88 | 884 | 10.0 | 8 | 79.3% |
| Mike Gesicki, Cin. | 83 | 65 | 665 | 10.2 | 2 | 78.3% |
| Will Dissly, LAC | 64 | 50 | 481 | 9.6 | 2 | 78.1% |
| Austin Hooper, N.E. | 59 | 45 | 476 | 10.6 | 3 | 76.3% |
| Juwan Johnson, N.O. | 66 | 50 | 548 | 11.0 | 3 | 75.8% |
| Trey McBride, Ari. | 147 | 111 | 1,146 | 10.3 | 2 | 75.5% |
| Brenton Strange, Jac. | 53 | 40 | 411 | 10.3 | 2 | 75.5% |
| Noah Fant, Sea. | 64 | 48 | 500 | 10.4 | 1 | 75.0% |
| Chig Okonkwo, Ten. | 70 | 52 | 479 | 9.2 | 2 | 74.3% |
| Evan Engram, Jac. | 64 | 47 | 365 | 7.8 | 1 | 73.4% |
| Brock Bowers, L.V. | 153 | 112 | 1,194 | 10.7 | 5 | 73.2% |
| Travis Kelce, K.C. | 133 | 97 | 823 | 8.5 | 3 | 72.9% |
| Zach Ertz, Was. | 91 | 66 | 654 | 9.9 | 7 | 72.5% |
| Isaiah Likely, Balt. | 58 | 42 | 477 | 11.4 | 6 | 72.4% |
| Sam LaPorta, Det. | 83 | 60 | 726 | 12.1 | 7 | 72.3% |
| Tucker Kraft, G.B. | 70 | 50 | 707 | 14.1 | 7 | 71.4% |
| Tyler Conklin, NYJ | 72 | 51 | 449 | 8.8 | 4 | 70.8% |
| Jordan Akins, Cle. | 58 | 40 | 390 | 9.8 | 2 | 69.0% |
| Jake Ferguson, Dall. | 86 | 59 | 494 | 8.4 | 0 | 68.6% |
| Hunter Henry, N.E. | 97 | 66 | 674 | 10.2 | 2 | 68.0% |
| Cade Otton, T.B. | 87 | 59 | 600 | 10.2 | 4 | 67.8% |
| T.J. Hockenson, Min. | 62 | 41 | 455 | 11.1 | 0 | 66.1% |
| David Njoku, Cle. | 97 | 64 | 505 | 7.9 | 5 | 66.0% |
| Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 74 | 47 | 602 | 12.8 | 4 | 63.5% |
| Dalton Schultz, Hou. | 85 | 53 | 532 | 10.0 | 2 | 62.4% |
| • Dalton Kincaid, Buff. | 75 | 44 | 448 | 10.2 | 2 | 58.7% |
Nothing that happened last year suggests Kincaid will be a key part of the offense. They haven’t used made him a featured option in the red zone or on third downs, and nothing he’s done suggests he’s a guy who should be seeing the ball more.
Things can change, of course, but it’s looking like Kincaid most likely will be simply a middle-of-the pack player at his position.
—Ian Allan