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COMMANDERS: The Commanders probably won’t win this game, but they look like a possibility to maybe put up better offensive numbers than some of the other teams – the Texans and Rams for sure, and maybe another team or two. They’ve got a good offense; only four teams gained more yards in the regular season. And Detroit isn’t great defensively. It’s a bottom-10 defense in terms of yards, and before shutting down the Vikings in Week 18, the Lions had allowed at least 34 points in three of their four previous games. The Commanders scored 32 touchdowns in their final 10 games, making 3 look like the most likely landing spot.
Jayden Daniels is just a rookie, but given his playing style and the matchup, he looks like a possibility to outperform even some of the elite quarterbacks this week. He might run for the most yards, given his quickness and willingness to take off. And he’s facing the leakiest pass defense. Detroit ranked next-to-last against the pass and got worse as the season progressed, with the injuries piling up. The Lions, of course, ended on a high note, completing shutting down Sam Darnold, but they allowed an average of 329 passing yards in their previous five games, with 13 touchdowns. All of those opponents passed for at least 255 yards and 2 TDs. If Daniels puts up those kind of passing stats (which seems reasonable) and mixes in 60 rushing yards, he possibly will be the most productive quarterback of the week. Daniels has been hot recently. There was the weird Week 18 game, with Daniels and others leaving early, but he’s averaged 243 passing and 70 rushing yards in his last six other games, with 17 TD passes and 2 TD runs – multiple touchdowns in all of those games.
The rushing matchup, on the other hand, looks like a clunker for Brian Robinson. Detroit’s defense is riddled with injuries, with seven defensive linemen and two starting linebackers on IR, but they’re tough to run against. Only six teams have allowed fewer rushing yards. The Bills ran for 197 yards and 4 TDs against them, but that was aided by Josh Allen slicing them up through the air. The Lions have allowed an average of 80 rushing yards in their last eight other games, with 4 TDs. Washington, on the other hand, ranks 3rd in rushing, but it’s slipped of late. Robinson runs hard, but he’s averaged better than 3.1 per carry in only one of his last five games. Since returning from his injury, he’s averaged only 44 rushing and 13 receiving yards in his last eight games, with 2 TDs. He caught a season-high 4 passes on Sunday, but he caught only 20 passes in his 14 other games. If this winds up being a wide-open, passing-type game, it would not be surprising if Washington’s other back, Austin Ekeler, finishes with better overall numbers. Ekeler outplayed Robinson on Sunday, making a pair of big plays on the final drive to win it – an 18-yard catch to put them into field goal range, and an 8-yard run to move it into chip-shot range. He’s a better and more experienced pass catcher. Ekeler carried 8 times for 27 yards at Tampa Bay, with another 26 yards on 3 catches. The Lions allowed touchdown passes to running backs in three of their final five games, but only four teams (for the season) allowed fewer completions to running backs.
Let’s call it an average situation for Terry McLaurin. The Lions may have ranked next-to-last against the pass in the regular season, but they allowed only 20 TD passes (2nd-fewest among remaining teams). Oddly against wide receivers, they allowed 185 yards per game (most of all 32 teams), but with only 15 touchdowns (fewest of remaining teams). They did a nice job against Justin Jefferson two weeks ago, limiting him to 3 catches for 54 yards, but nothing out of the ordinary in their other 3 games against what we’ll call McLaurin-type receivers, with Jefferson (in the other Vikings game), Lamb and Brian Thomas all catching 5-7 passes for 81-89 yards, with a combined one touchdown. McLaurin has averaged 5.1 catches for 72 yards in his last 16 games, with 14 touchdowns.
With Noah Brown out for the year, a pair of other lightly regarded veterans have stepped up in recent weeks as the main supporting receivers. Olamide Zaccheaus has caught 21 passes for 261 yards and 5 TDs in his last five games, while Dyami Brown has caught 19 for 226 in his last five, with one touchdown. Zaccheaus has been a little more consistent, while Brown came up big in the last game.
Third-rounder Luke McCaffrey might eventually develop into a notable player, but it’s not happening this year. He’s caught only 18 passes in 18 games, and they’ve been moving away from him – no targets in his last three games. Journeyman Jamison Crowder has been outperforming him of late.
Some of the tight end matchup numbers look a little wonky. On the one hand, Detroit ranks next-to-last against the pass, but the numbers compiled at Pro-Football-Reference indicate only two defenses have allowed fewer yards or completions to tight ends. Those numbers are heavily influenced by who you happen to play. Whatever. We like the look of Zach Ertz. He came on at the end of the season, particularly as a trusted option around the goal line. He caught 29 passes and 6 TDs in his final seven regular-season games. Ertz caught only 2 passes at Tampa Bay, but he was the intended target on an end-zone throw late that should have drawn a flag.
The Commanders scored 147 kicking points in the regular season, but the bulk of those came early in the season, when the offense was more often stalling in the red zone and Austin Seibert was kicking. Washington averaged 11 kicking points in its first nine games, but it’s averaged only 6.6 in its last nine. Bouncing in a game-winning kick off the upright, Zane Gonzalez managed 11 points on Sunday night, but he’s scored only 34 points in his other six games, looking like a lesser option. There are no weather concerns, at least, which can’t be said for the kickers in the other three games.
The Commanders Defense looks like a lesser choice. It managed only 7 interceptions in the regular season – 5 fewer than any other defense still playing – and it’s facing a quarterback who doesn’t throw many. Jared Goff tossed 5 in a game at Houston, but he’s thrown only 3 in his last 13 other games. And he operates behind an offensive line that tends to afford him excellent protection (just 31 sacks in the regular season). Washington doesn’t seem to be anything notable on special teams, but it’s at least made a few plays. Luke McCaffrey has been handling kickoff returns for a month, and he had a 47-yard return against Philadelphia. Early in the year, Austin Ekeler in that role scored a kickoff return touchdown that was nullified by a penalty. Jamison Crowder took over punt returns for the last four games, with 2 returns over 20 yards. (But chances are slim of hitting on something big.)
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 20 "Divisional Round" of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 10-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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