Moishe Steigmann asked a question about hit-bust rates. I post a chart earlier in the day, showing that only 1 of the last 8 running backs selected in the top 10 ended up being good picks. He wanted to see the corresponding numbers for other positions.
I assume he means skill positions, since we typically talk fantasy football here, rather than the real-life variety. Not many tight ends go that high, so I’m listing just the numbers for quarterbacks and wide receivers.
And I will expand it back to the start of the century.
For each position, I’m putting in bold the names of successful picks. That is, if said team had a crystal ball that showed how that player would perform for the first four-five years of his career, is there any way in a million years that they would consider picking him again in that spot?
At running back, I will call the success rate 4 out of 11. Peterson and Tomlinson definitely should have gone higher. Lewis had a 2,000-yard season and won a Super Bowl. He was fine. I will also call Thomas Jones a successful pick, even though he was crap in his three years with the team that selected him (Arizona). He went on to run for over 10,000 career yards.
| RUNNING BACKS IN THE TOP 10 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Pick | Player |
| 2000 | 5 | Jamal Lewis |
| 2000 | 7 | Thomas Jones |
| 2001 | 5 | LaDainian Tomlinson |
| 2005 | 2 | Ronnie Brown |
| 2005 | 4 | Cedric Benson |
| 2005 | 5 | Cadillac Williams |
| 2006 | 2 | Reggie Bush |
| 2007 | 7 | Adrian Peterson |
| 2008 | 4 | Darren McFadden |
| 2010 | 9 | C.J. Spiller |
| 2012 | 3 | Trent Richardson |
At quarterback, I’m going with a 10 out of 21 success rate. That includes RG3 and Tannehill. Obviously, neither of those teams would select those guys ahead of Russell Wilson, but those picks could still turn out to be successful. Griffin had the monster rookie year, and he might pop back on track this season. Tannehill is up in the air; he’s completed a higher percentage than Andrew Luck two years in a row, so let’s see. Michael Vick had the dog fighting disaster, and the Falcons obviously would want no part of that, but he also had considerable success at times there. It would be fair to call him a bust, sticking him down with the likes of Carr, Harrington and JaMarcus Russell.
I might be unfair in not putting both Alex Smith and Sam Bradford in the “successful” category. Bradford has shown signs of some success; he could still do it. He’s very similar to Tannehill in my eyes. Smith is weird. He definitely was an unsuccessful quarterback for the first five years of his career, but he went to an NFC Championship game with the 49ers following the 2011 season, and he had a good year with Kansas City last year. Watching him in that shootout loss at Indianapolis in the playoffs, it was my impression he was probably one of the 20 best quarterbacks in the league.
| QUARTERBACKS IN TOP 10 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Pick | |
| 2001 | 1 | Michael Vick |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr |
| 2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington |
| 2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer |
| 2003 | 7 | Byron Leftwich |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning |
| 2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers |
| 2005 | 1 | Alex Smith |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young |
| 2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart |
| 2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell |
| 2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton |
| 2011 | 8 | Jake Locker |
| 2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III |
| 2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill |
At wide receiver, I see a success rate of about 8 of 21. Also not great. Hardest guys to grade, I think are Braylon Edwards and Roy Williams. Williams started his career with three good seasons with the Lions. He seemed like a very good top-10 pick at that point. Then he fizzled out. I will be generous and call him a successful pick. Edwards had the one monster season with the Browns, scoring 16 TDs. After that year, he really looked like one of the top 5 receivers in the game – a Randy Moss or Terrell Owens type guy. Then he kind of fell apart. I choose to put him in the bust pile. Other one I hemmed and haw on was Michael Crabtree. Has down a few nice things the last two years, but maybe too early to call him a successful pick (but I’ve got him in bold).
Tavon Austin didn’t show much last year. Maybe he’ll be good, but I think the Rams would love to get out of that pick if they could.
| WIDE RECEIVERS IN TOP 10 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Pick | |
| 2000 | 4 | Peter Warrick |
| 2000 | 8 | Plaxico Burress |
| 2000 | 10 | Travis Taylor |
| 2001 | 8 | David Terrell |
| 2001 | 9 | Koren Robinson |
| 2003 | 2 | Charles Rogers |
| 2003 | 3 | Andre Johnson |
| 2004 | 3 | Larry Fitzgerald |
| 2004 | 7 | Roy Williams |
| 2004 | 9 | Reggie Williams |
| 2005 | 3 | Braylon Edwards |
| 2005 | 7 | Troy Williamson |
| 2005 | 10 | Mike Williams |
| 2007 | 2 | Calvin Johnson |
| 2007 | 9 | Ted Ginn |
| 2009 | 7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey |
| 2009 | 10 | Michael Crabtree |
| 2011 | 4 | A.J. Green |
| 2011 | 6 | Julio Jones |
| 2012 | 5 | Justin Blackmon |
| 2013 | 8 | Tavon Austin |
—Ian Allan