Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel. There's a strong possibility that two if not all three of these quarterbacks will be selected within the top 10 picks of this year's draft. If that happens, it will be the 13th time since 1993 that multiple quarterbacks were selected in the top 10 of a draft. How often have NFL teams gotten that critical selection right? That is, how often in those years has the first of multiple quarterbacks selected in the top 10 been the best of them?
By our count, NFL teams have gotten it right far more often than not. On those 12 previous occasions, only twice has the second quarterback selected had greater NFL success, and only once has that player been a dramatically better pro. The superior No. 2s were Donovan McNabb, who had a much better career than Tim Couch, and Trent Dilfer, who won a Super Bowl with the Ravens and would certainly be drafted ahead of Heath Shuler with the benefit of hindsight.
Of the other 10 occasions since 1993, the first quarterback was clearly the best quarterback selected an impressive 7 times (we're taking the liberty of saying Andrew Luck and Cam Newton will have the better pro careers of the multiple top-10 quarterbacks in those drafts, although it's early in both cases). On three other occasions, either both quarterbacks turned out just fine (Eli Manning and Philip Rivers) or neither was any good (David Carr and Joey Harrington, Vince Young and Matt Leinart).
At least based on that history, there's a strong possibility that the quarterback the Texans select with the No. 1 overall pick -- assuming they go that route -- will go on to have the best NFL career.
The other takeaway from that history is gloomier. The chances of that second quarterback selected being a solid pro appear poor. Rivers and McNabb are the best of those players, and Kerry Collins and to a lesser extent Dilfer also had respectable careers. The other "No. 2s" haven't panned out, although the jury is still out on the most recent ones. The quarterbacks taken No. 3 in that timeframe include two busts (Akili Smith and Blaine Gabbert) and one on whom the jury is still out (Ryan Tannehill).
The 12 previous times since 1993 that multiple quarterbacks have been selected in the top 10 picks are presented below. The superior quarterback in each draft is in bold.
| DRAFTS WITH MULTIPLE TOP-10 QBs, 1993-PRESENT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First | Second | Third |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck | Robert Griffin III | Ryan Tannehill |
| 2011 | Cam Newton | Jake Locker | Blaine Gabbert |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford | Mark Sanchez | |
| 2006 | Vince Young | Matt Leinart | |
| 2004 | Eli Manning | Philip Rivers | |
| 2003 | Carson Palmer | Byron Leftwich | |
| 2002 | David Carr | Joey Harrington | |
| 1999 | Tim Couch | Donovan McNabb | Akili Smith |
| 1998 | Peyton Manning | Ryan Leaf | |
| 1995 | Steve McNair | Kerry Collins | |
| 1994 | Heath Shuler | Trent Dilfer | |
| 1993 | Drew Bledsoe | Rick Mirer | |
--Andy Richardson