Fantasy Index

Factoid

March 25, 2014

Red zone numbers

Detroit surprisingly strong in 2013

Why were the Lions so bad last year? How did a team with that talent go only 7-9? It was even worse in 2012, going just 4-12.

Detroit has some nice offensive weapons, with Stafford and Megatron – and adding Reggie Bush to that mix. And it’s a team that also has some talent on defense.

A chart just went across my desk today. Red zone numbers. And I’ve stripped out some of the numbers to make it simpler and less confusion. In that part of the field, the real measure is whether you can put the ball in the end zone. Once in the red zone, if it’s a touchdown, it’s a win for the offense. And if it’s a field goal, downs or a turnover, that’s a win for the defense.

Not surprising, Denver had the best offense, scoring touchdowns on 76 percent of its red zone possessions. And Seattle (again, no surprise) had the best defense. The Seahawks allowed touchdowns on only 13 of 36 possessions inside the red zone. They got to the Super Bowl, recall, on one such drive – Richard Sherman tapped the ball to Malcom Smith for a game-ending interception in the NFC Championship; I believe the 49ers were at the 19 or 20 yard line at the time.

But note that the Lions, for all their struggles, had the league’s 2nd-best defense inside the red zone. They were darn near as good as Seattle in that part of the field, giving up touchdowns on only 16 of 42 drives. Better than Carolina, and way better than San Francisco.

DEFENSES IN RED ZONE
RkTeamPossTDPct
1.Seattle361336.1%
2.Detroit421638.1%
3.Carolina411741.5%
4.NY Jets492244.9%
5.Miami562646.4%
6.Buffalo512447.1%
7.Baltimore412048.8%
8.Tampa Bay562850.0%
9.Cincinnati361850.0%
10.Kansas City371951.4%
11.St. Louis603151.7%
12.Philadelphia492653.1%
13.San Francisco412253.7%
14.Arizona482654.2%
15.NY Giants462554.3%
16.New England502856.0%
17.Pittsburgh553156.4%
18.New Orleans462656.5%
19.Chicago593457.6%
20.Indianapolis412458.5%
21.Atlanta573459.6%
22.Oakland623759.7%
23.Jacksonville653960.0%
24.Green Bay573561.4%
25.Denver603761.7%
26.Minnesota633961.9%
27.San Diego452862.2%
28.Washington603863.3%
29.Tennessee503264.0%
30.Cleveland503264.0%
31.Dallas624064.5%
32.Houston483266.7%

And while I’ve got them out, here are the offensive numbers. Detroit is up there near the top again – 4th-best in red-zone efficiency. How did this team go 7-9?

Most surprising offense, I think, was Cincinnati. Everyone likes to dump on Andy Dalton, who’s flopped in back-to-back postseasons. He turned it over too often, especially late last year. But the Bengals were No. 2 in red zone offense, just behind Denver.

OFFENSES IN RED ZONE
RkTeamPossTDPct
1.Denver675176.1%
2.Cincinnati463473.9%
3.Dallas513568.6%
4.Detroit563562.5%
5.Oakland422559.5%
6.Chicago603558.3%
7.Carolina502958.0%
8.Kansas City573357.9%
9.Tennessee492857.1%
10.Miami462656.5%
11.San Francisco553156.4%
12.Seattle573256.1%
13.New Orleans573256.1%
14.Indianapolis502856.0%
15.New England653655.4%
16.Pittsburgh532852.8%
17.Cleveland361952.8%
18.Philadelphia573052.6%
19.Minnesota482552.1%
20.Arizona502652.0%
21.Washington502652.0%
22.Atlanta522751.9%
23.Tampa Bay371951.4%
24.St. Louis492551.0%
25.Green Bay653350.8%
26.San Diego593050.8%
27.NY Jets422150.0%
28.Houston402050.0%
29.Buffalo442147.7%
30.NY Giants361747.2%
31.Baltimore522446.2%
32.Jacksonville411843.9%

—Ian Allan

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