Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Will tighter officiating result in even better passing numbers in 2014? Does a healthy Gronkowski mean a lesser Edelman? Which of the rookie running backs will be the best next year?
Question 1
Long-time FFI newsstand buyer and subscriber (since 1991); your wise counsel has helped me win numerous titles ... or at least get me in position to win. I was listening to a recent John Clayton podcast; his guest, Mike Pereira (the former NFL official, now with Fox) said the NFL intends to make illegal-contact penalties (against the defense) a greater point of emphasis this season. According to Pereira, the last time this happened was after the 2003 season, mainly a reaction to Patriot DBs manhandling Colt WRs in the AFC title game. The number of illegal-contact penalties more than doubled the following year; from 79 in 2003 to 191 in 2004. Pereira said he expects a similar increase this season. It's odd that the NFL believes the rules should be tilted even more in favor of offense. That opinion aside, how do you think a tighter interpretation of illegal contact will affect fantasy numbers? My first reaction was that passing and receiving yards will jump out of sight...but it could also just mean a slew of 5-yard penalties and automatic first downs.
Mike Fimea (Scottsdale, AZ (recently liberated from The People's Republic of California))
I don’t see it as a big deal. There’s been some talk about it. I expect there will be a few more flags. But I don’t think it will be anything significant enough that it will jump out as being any different to viewers at home. If those calls start getting made, the defensive backs will respond by using less of those kind of techniques. And even if there were to be a jump on par with what Pereira cited from 10 years ago, I don’t think it would significantly change the game. A jump from 79 to 191 might seem like a big change; that’s an increase of 112 (over double). But there are 256 games, so we’re really just talking about one additional penalty every other game. That’s the worst-case scenario – an additional penalty every other game. I don’t see this change in emphasis having a significant impact on team’s passing production. The numbers are already through the rough (teams averaged 252 passing yards per game last year, with 25 TDs per season).
Question 2
In the magazine, I read where you are high on Edelman. With the possibility of Gronkowski being available at the start of the year, isn't there a real concern of a decline in Edelman's numbers (especially non-ppr leagues)?
Tod Denison (Bakersfield, CA)
Yes. Agreed. I moved Edelman down some on my last board. Not only Gronkowski, but they could be stronger at that other wide receiver spot as well. Kenbrell Thompkins is off to a strong start at training camp. Shane Vereen also healthy. With more other quality targets, it’s realistic to project that Edelman will see slightly fewer balls, and he probably wouldn’t see nearly as many passes around the goal line. Still like him a lot, however, and I’ve still got him ranked high enough that I expect to select him in a bunch of leagues.
Question 3
If you were a Ray Rice owner in a PPR Dynasty and were looking for a low end (3rd or 4th) RB to replace him with for the first two weeks only, who would you target! Is there some team that is going to face two horrible run defenses the first couple of weeks that a third RB might be able to exploit or get garbage time? Maybe McCluster, Powell or Stepfan Taylor? Thanks as always!
MONTE MCDONALD (Las Vegas, NV)
Bernard Pierce is a natural fit in that he also has the added value of being the handcuff back there. Maybe Khiry Robinson of the Saints; I think he’ll play a lot more this year. The Dolphins signed Knowshon Moreno, but it’s my belief that Lamar Miller will be the starter there, and with them going to more of an Eagles-style offense, Miller could be one of this year’s most-improved running backs. You mentioned McCluster; his first game for Tennessee is at Arrowhead against his old team.
Question 4
Our Keeper League allows a 4-Man Taxi Squad for Rookies. I have the 1st & 3rd overall picks this year. How would you rate the rookie RB's based on the start of 2015 season (standard scoring)? Does Hyde move ahead of Sankey? Does Mason start over Stacy in 2015? Is West the starter over Tate? My two picks will most likely remain on my Taxi until 2015 or 2016.
Dennis Thomas (Royal Oaks, CA)
I will go Bishop Sankey No. 1. The safest choice, I think. After that, very little difference between the next four: Carlos Hyde, Terrance West, Devonta Freeman and Jeremy Hill. Those are the top 5, I think. Followed by Tre Mason and Andre Williams.
Question 5
Ian, love the magazine. In one of my 12-team leagues we must fill our "starting lineup" in the first 8 rounds of the draft. Each owner must draft a QB, 2RBs, 2WRs,TE, K and Def. in first eight rounds, then rounds 9-20 are wide open (No. 12 picks 1st in round 9). The league started in 1991 and we never changed our format. I'm curious how you would adjust your draft strategy knowing you (and everyone else) is getting a top-12 QB, two top-24 RBs, etc.? Would there be temptation to take someone like Jimmy Graham even higher?
JOHN GRUPP (Gruppstanding Citizens) (Pittsburgh, PA)
I think it will cause some shuffling. Once 8-10 quarterbacks are taken, the tendency will be to pause and ponder, “well, if I just wait until the eighth round, I’ll probably still get the 9th- or 10th-best quarterback on my board.” And it’s the same at the other positions. You look at the 24th-best running back and 24th-best wide receiver and try to measure how much worse they are than the 4-6-8 players in front of them, while also wondering how much different everybody’s draft board is. Realistically, if you wait until the 8th round to pick your last running back or wide receiver, you’d probably still get the No. 20 guy on your list at the position. In such a league, I would imagine I’d end up pushing a couple of positions to low-priority, selecting my defense, kicker and maybe tight end earlier than a lot of the other franchises.
Question 6
While filling out your Fantasy Index Open Contest information, I was surprised to see no TE for the Giants, which got me thinking: Who Is in contention to be the Giants starting TE? Doing a little quick research I keep seeing the names of Fells, Robinson and Donnell! Any thoughts on who might win this competition and if they could have any impact in a PPR league with the new offense NY is trying to run? Thanks as always!
MONTE MCDONALD (Las Vegas, NV)
They’re going to more of a West Coast system, so they should use the tight end more. That’s the theory. But they don’t really have anybody they can count on. Daniel Fells and Kellen Davis – those guys are just blockers. They drafted Adrien Robinson in the fourth round, but he hasn’t done anything in first two years, and they’ve got him buried down at No. 4 on the depth chart. Larry Donnell is their first-string guy right now on the team-released depth chart, but right now he’s just trying to secure a starting job. Way to early to speculate that Donnell will not only start but also put up viable numbers. It’s tough to put up relevant production at tight end because fantasy teams tend to start just one tight end (while starting multiple running backs and wide receivers). We’ll get our first peek at Donnell and the other candidates in the Sunday night game. There’s still an outside chance, of course, that the Giants could add another tight end from outside the organization. The Cardinals probably would love to unload Rob Housler, who has some pass-catching ability but doesn’t fit their scheme. Jermichael Finley played under New York’s offensive coordinator, Ben McAdoo, last year in Green Bay. The Giants just got burned, however, on a player coming back from a neck injury. They potentially could go 0-2 if they got burned by Finley.