Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is it best to avoid running backs who carry a big workload? What does Montee Ball's appendectomy do to Denver's backfield? Revised dynasty rankings. And much, much more.

Question 1

I remember reading that most players that rush for over 370 carries have a very bad history the next year. Marshawn Lynch ran for 301 carries last year, what is the stat on RB that have over 300 carries staying healthy the following year. Is it any different than running backs as a whole?

ERIC SCOLNICK (Redmond, WA)

It’s an interesting question. If a running backs goes over 2,000 yards, does that mean he’s too physically worn out to perform at a high level the next season? Or is that just the natural decline to be expected from any great season. If you look at all quarterbacks throwing over 40 touchdowns, only two (Drew Brees twice and Aaron Rodgers) threw even 30 touchdowns the next year. But nobody is suggesting Peyton Manning should be avoided this year because his arm will be worn out after throwing 55 touchdowns.

I looked at it some. I considered all running backs in the last 20 years who’ve handled the ball at least 200 times (that’s runs and catches) then came back and played at all the next year. I tossed out guys who retired or got hurt in the offseason.

Looking at the table, I see that 26 running backs handled the ball at least 400 times. The next year, that group averaged only 323 touches, which is a steep drop. But would they have been better of if they’d been spelled more and averaged 340-359 touches? That group also dropped significantly, down to 275 touches per season.

The most interesting takeaway, I think, is that there’s some slight truth to the breakdown theory. Backs with 360-399 touches have been just as good as the real workhorse guys (again, in the next season). The backs with 20-40 fewer touches have actually averaged more total yards, while those with 1-20 fewer touches have had almost as many yards and averaged almost 2 more touches.

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Question 2

Although fantasy football is now a year-round endeavor (even with other fantasy leagues, March Madness etc.) as an old timer I view your magazine's release as the official kickoff to the new season. Over the last 25 years with your magazine I have seen the game and theories evolve; including some of yours. My question is have you reviewed and analyzed the various theories over say 10 or 20 years (taking into consideration rule changes etc.) and found certain categories, theories, algorithms that seem to stand out? I assume you have but is there a way to present which you have found to be the most prescient when it comes to predicting success? Could you list categories you have found to be the most successful? eg: RB age; contract year; new offensive coordinator; college stats; last year's success. I know it's not an exact science but any feedback would be great. Thanks!

Patrick Fergus (Brooklyn, NY)

I tend to believe more in systems and teams rather than individual players. With the majority of players, I think, it’s not so much the individual but what’s around him and how he’ll be used. Is the offensive line any good? Is the offensive coordinator going to get the ball in his hands? And does he have enough talent to execute what they’re asking of him? I appreciate you partnering with us over the last 25 years. Since you’ve read a lot of my stuff, I’m sure you’re aware that I am not much of a believer in the contract year theory or in chasing after college stats. Guys like to toss around that you shouldn’t trust a 30-year-old running back, but I don’t buy into that. With the way these guys train and treat their bodies nowadays, it’s really 31 and 32 where you see running backs break down.

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Question 3

Montee Ball just had an appendectomy surgery. How realistic is his return in one month from an appendectomy? That is what the Denver camp says but I don't know many people that can run let alone play professional football just one month from that surgery.

ERIC SCOLNICK (Redmond, WA)

I don’t think it’s a huge concern. He should be healthy in time to play. My worry is that as he sits out, it increases the probability that he’ll be spelled more, especially early in the season. Ronnie Hillman was the clear starter a year ago at this time and supposedly is running well. If Hillman can start hanging onto the ball, he could play a big role in that offense. The logical move is to drop Ball behind the other comparable backs in the late first and early second round – guys like Giovani Bernard, Marshawn Lynch and maybe Arian Foster and DeMarco Murray.

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Question 4

Top 10 Dynasty Rankings for PPR: QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE. Any specific players outside on Top 10 to take flyer on?

Joe Tristano (Winona, MN)

Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck are the two quarterbacks I’d be looking at. They’d be in my first round. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are older guys, so I don’t think you can take them in the top 10 (I don’t even have them in my top 5 quarterbacks). There are some options at wide receiver – younger guys who are going to be good for a long time. A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, Randall Cobb, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant. I think you put those guys in the top 10 consideration. Jimmy Graham is in there. At running back, when you adjust for age, I think you’re looking at LeSean McCoy, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles and Giovani Bernard.

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Question 5

We have a one player keeper. I pick 4th in a 12 team snake draft, and I narrowed it down to Lacy (third round), or Bernard (fourth round). Keep in mind, there is a decent chance that Lacy would be off the board by the No. 4 pick, because there is a high probability of Charles, Peterson, Forte, and McCoy being kept. I love Lacy in the third, but it will be a long time until it comes back around to me in the 4th. It’s a .5 PPR league if that tips the scales. Thoughts?

Aaron Davitian (Chula Vista, CA)

I like Bernard. He’s been climbing up my board. Great pass catcher, and I think they’ll do more with him this year as a runner. According to my projections, he’s only 14 fantasy points behind Lacy. When you look at the difference between picks 3.04 and 4.09, you’re looking at more like 20 points. So numbers suggest the correct move is to keep Bernard. It may sound weird, and it’s a gutsy move. But when in doubt, I tend to go off the numbers. Trust the research. So I’d keep Bernard.

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Question 6

Is there any way you could add a Rookie Dynasty Rankings update to the preseason Rankings updates? I think it would be much better than just ranking the rookies based on your overall rankings - for those of us in Dynasty leagues that have a Rookie Draft. Won't it affect the rankings once we see some of these guys in preseason action? And injuries could affect these as well (for example, it seems to me that Carlos Hyde might be climbing up the ranks with the backfield injuries in SF.) Unless you feel strongly that the list from the mag remains pretty much unchanged. Thanks!

Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)

We can always talk dynasty rankings. Like the regular rankings, those are changing every day. Any time you want to check on a player or a position, feel free to send it into the mailbag. The most notable mover, I think, is Brandin Cooks. It seems all he’s been doing from Day One is tearing things up. Darren Sproles is gone, and I think Cooks is going to be the new short-range, catch-and-run weapon in that offense. Cooks, Watkins, Evans, Beckham, Matthews, Benjamin, Lee, Adams, Latimer, Moncrief. That would be my top 10 at wide receiver.

At running back, I think Jeremy Hill and Andre Williams need to move up some. Hyde was already at No. 2, so I’ll leave him for now. Sankey, Hyde, West, Freeman, Williams, Hill, Mason, McKinnon, Carey, Sims. That’s my top 10 at running back.

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Question 7

Picking 6th in a PPR league with yardage points skewed to favor RB's. Most teams start 3 RBs (2 + flex). Your custom rankings tool indicates 10 of top 12 should be RBs, including the first eight. Assuming top five RBs go off the Board as expected, I'm having problems pulling the trigger on Lynch as #6 (violent running style = lots of mileage and prone to injury, talented young backups could lead to RBBC, etc). I feel that Montee Ball is a missed block or a fumble away from the Denver doghouse/bench. #6 is just too high for Gio. Selecting Megatron or Graham leaves me too weak at the RB position. Am thinking that the ceilings for Murray and Foster may be higher than Lynch's ceiling, and each of those guys is the clear #1 on their respective teams (though both are injury prone). If I'm just as happy with Foster, Murray and Lynch, it seems like trading down to 9th or 10th may be the way to go. However, as a final curve, our league rule is that once you trade draft positions, you are in the new position for the entire draft. Not sure I want to trade #6 for #9 the entire draft. Any advice?

STEVEN MATH (Austin, TX)

I’m skeptical that our projections indicate that 10 of the first 12 picks should be running backs. This is a PPR league, and the most valuable asset in that kind of format tends to be the elite receivers who’ll catch 90-100 passes and double-digit touchdowns. You want those guys. You say that most teams start three running backs (2 plus a flex) but my guess is that all of those teams should instead be starting two running backs and using a wide receiver as a flex. I don’t have your league’s exact rules in front of me, but my guess is that teams should be starting 3-4 wide receivers and only two running backs. I think you’ve overridden my recommendations by going into auction values section and tweaking the numbers to make running backs more coveted and wide receivers less so. If I were the general manager of your team, the draft board definitely would have Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green and Dez Bryant in the first-round discussion. Picking 6th, Calvin Johnson would be my pick. If you’re locked into a running back, probably Giovani Bernard; I think he’ll be kind of a breakout-type guy in his second year.

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Question 8

I have a keeper question. Our league is 10 team ppr with 5 keepers. My keepers will be Forte, Lacy, Julius Thomas, Brandon Marshall. My 5th keeper is between Zach Stacy and Victor Cruz. Which would you keep?

Rich Volwiler (Mount Vernon, WA)

Today I’m keeping Zac Stacy. I didn’t care much for the look at the New York Giants’ offense last night. The offensive line isn’t good enough. Too many short balls. If Tre Mason looks really good when the Rams start playing, I may flop back to Cruz.

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Question 9

I'm trying to get as much input as possible. I am in a 12-team, standard scoring dynasty league. I am coming off the league championship and of course would like to win again. I also would like to continue to build for the future. In this exercise I'd like your input on whether or not the trades I am thinking of offering would be beneficial to my team while still allowing me to compete this year. Starting line-up is 1 QB, 7 offensive players with min/max of 0-2 RBs, 1-5 WRs, 0-3 TEs. Trade 1 is with an owner who took over his team 2 years ago and has been primarily building through young players, however he is a massive KC fan and sometimes lets that guide his decisions. I am thinking of offering him Jamaal Charles for his 2014 1.01, 2.01 and Randall Cobb. I would select Watkins with that 1.01. If that trade would go through; trade 2 would be with an owner who kind of just plays sparingly meaning very little additional league interaction. I'd offer him Randall Cobb for 1.02 and Trent Richardson. With that pick, I'd select Mike Evans. If all those trades would happen I would then be fielding a starting roster of Andrew Luck, Andre Ellington, Toby Gerhart/Maurice Jones-Drew/Trent Richardson, Jordy Nelson, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, and then two of the following based on how they are performing (Eric Decker, T.Y. Hilton, Wes Welker, Jordan Reed). Decker's move to NY, Welker's decline, and Hilton's inconsistency is making me feel like I need to bolster my wide receivers. I also considered amending trade 2 and offering Cobb and 1.12 for 1.02 and Giovani Bernard. Anyway, I hope I explained this enough and gave you enough information. How do you think my team would perform if all of this was to occur?

Nathan Kline (Topton, PA)

A couple of thoughts come to mind. You toss around Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans as draft targets. Right now, my belief is that Brandin Cooks will be better than both of those guys. Cooks is really good, and the Saints seem to be intent to really get the ball in his hands. I also saw Trent Richardson go by in one of the trades. Not sure why you’d want to take that headache on. Certainly, Richardson isn’t in the same stratosphere as Giovani Bernard. You should also be careful about giving away Randall Cobb. He’s 24, and he’s a lot better than Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans, at least for now, and could be better than both of those guys in each of the next nine years.

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Question 10

We can freeze up to 5 players from last year in my league with no penalty. I've got Peyton, Megatron and a half-dozen good running backs (we can start up to three). Of this bunch, which three would you freeze: M. Ball, D. Murray, G. Bernard, Z. Stacy, S. Vereen, A. Ellington? Scoring is unusual: 10 points for a rushing TD, 6 for passing and receiving TDs (points double for long scores, 40 yards or more). Bonuses max out at 5 points for 100+ rushing yards or 6+ catches, with no points for fewer than 50 rushing yards or fewer than 4 catches. Pretty odd, I admit, but our league dates back to the late 70s. We are old and don't like change.

eric pryne (Vashon, WA)

Agreed on Manning and Calvin Johnson. I’d also be pretty firm on Montee Ball and Gio Bernard. You want to keep those young backs around. For now, I’ll go with DeMarco Murray as the fifth keeper, but I reserve the right to switch to Stacy, Vereen or Ellington as I see how things transpire in the preseason.

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