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Strength of schedule estimate

Why the 49ers will play the league's hardest schedule

We’ve seen all the teams three times. We’re starting to get an idea of who’s good and who’s bad. Ignoring the opponents and divisions (that is, assuming each team played a typical schedule) I would expect the 32 teams to stack up this way.

Seattle is definitely the best team in the league right now, and Denver and New England are next in line.

PRESEASON POWER POLL
TeamWLTPct
Seattle1420.875
Denver1330.813
New England1240.750
New Orleans1150.688
Philadelphia1051.656
Green Bay1060.625
Cincinnati961.594
Indianapolis961.594
Carolina961.594
San Diego970.563
Chicago970.563
Baltimore970.563
Pittsburgh970.563
San Francisco970.563
Arizona871.531
Kansas City880.500
Detroit780.438
NY Jets780.438
Tennessee790.438
Miami790.438
Atlanta790.438
Jacksonville691.406
Minnesota691.406
NY Giants6100.375
Washington6100.375
Dallas6100.375
St. Louis5101.344
Tampa Bay5110.313
Buffalo5110.313
Houston5110.313
Oakland4120.250
Cleveland4120.250

No big surprises there. I put together a similar list last week, with all of the teams within a win of what you see above. I’m not going out on a ledge with any of those selections. The biggest surprise might be having the 49ers down at 9-7.

Now keep in mind, I’m not saying the teams will finish that way. I’m saying that’s about what I would expect setting aside what opponents they’ll play. If you take schedules into account, then you start running into the issue of a team that’s maybe in your top 10 or bottom 10 finishing with an 8-8 record because of a hard or easy schedule. I instead wanted a baseline strength of each team.

Now take those strength estimates and plug them into the 2014 schedule. That gives you a sense of what teams will play the hardest and easiest schedules.

According to my figures, the Texans, Titans and Jaguars (three teams in the AFC South) will play the easiest schedules, followed by Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The two Bay Area teams and the two Show Me State teams should play the hardest schedules.

PROJECTED STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-17)
TeamWLTPct
Houston1151410.449
Tennessee1171381.459
Jacksonville1191370.465
Philadelphia1201351.471
Pittsburgh1211350.473
Baltimore1211341.475
Washington1211341.475
Indianapolis1221340.477
New Orleans1221331.479
Cleveland1241311.486
NY Giants1241311.486
New England1251310.488
Chicago1271290.496
Seattle1281280.500
Minnesota1281271.502
Buffalo1291270.504
Cincinnati1291261.506
Denver1291261.506
Detroit1291261.506
Atlanta1301260.508
Dallas1301260.508
NY Jets1311250.512
Tampa Bay1311250.512
Miami1311241.514
Arizona1341220.523
San Diego1341220.523
Green Bay1341211.525
Carolina1351210.527
Kansas City1361191.533
St. Louis1371190.535
Oakland1371181.537
San Francisco1381171.541

Those figures include Week 17. Most fantasy leagues are finished before that week rolls around. If you want to toss that one out, you get some minor tweaks.

PROJECTED STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
TeamWLTPct
Tennessee1081320.450
Houston1081311.452
Pittsburgh1111281.465
Jacksonville1141260.475
NY Giants1141260.475
Philadelphia1141251.477
Indianapolis1151250.479
Washington1151241.481
Cleveland1151241.481
Buffalo1171230.488
Baltimore1171221.490
New Orleans1171221.490
Minnesota1191201.498
Detroit1191201.498
New England1201200.500
Tampa Bay1201200.500
Chicago1201191.502
Cincinnati1201191.502
Atlanta1201191.502
Seattle1221171.510
St. Louis1231170.513
Dallas1241160.517
NY Jets1241160.517
Miami1241160.517
Oakland1241151.519
Arizona1251150.521
Denver1251141.523
San Diego1261140.525
Green Bay1271130.529
Kansas City1271121.531
Carolina1281120.533
San Francisco1301100.542

—Ian Allan

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