We’ve seen all the teams three times. We’re starting to get an idea of who’s good and who’s bad. Ignoring the opponents and divisions (that is, assuming each team played a typical schedule) I would expect the 32 teams to stack up this way.
Seattle is definitely the best team in the league right now, and Denver and New England are next in line.
PRESEASON POWER POLL | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Seattle | 14 | 2 | 0 | .875 |
Denver | 13 | 3 | 0 | .813 |
New England | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 |
New Orleans | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 |
Philadelphia | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
Green Bay | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
Cincinnati | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Indianapolis | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Carolina | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
San Diego | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Chicago | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Baltimore | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Pittsburgh | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
San Francisco | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Arizona | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
Kansas City | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Detroit | 7 | 8 | 0 | .438 |
NY Jets | 7 | 8 | 0 | .438 |
Tennessee | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
Miami | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
Atlanta | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
Jacksonville | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Minnesota | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
NY Giants | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
Washington | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
Dallas | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
St. Louis | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
Tampa Bay | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
Buffalo | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
Houston | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
Oakland | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 |
Cleveland | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 |
No big surprises there. I put together a similar list last week, with all of the teams within a win of what you see above. I’m not going out on a ledge with any of those selections. The biggest surprise might be having the 49ers down at 9-7.
Now keep in mind, I’m not saying the teams will finish that way. I’m saying that’s about what I would expect setting aside what opponents they’ll play. If you take schedules into account, then you start running into the issue of a team that’s maybe in your top 10 or bottom 10 finishing with an 8-8 record because of a hard or easy schedule. I instead wanted a baseline strength of each team.
Now take those strength estimates and plug them into the 2014 schedule. That gives you a sense of what teams will play the hardest and easiest schedules.
According to my figures, the Texans, Titans and Jaguars (three teams in the AFC South) will play the easiest schedules, followed by Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The two Bay Area teams and the two Show Me State teams should play the hardest schedules.
PROJECTED STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-17) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Houston | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
Tennessee | 117 | 138 | 1 | .459 |
Jacksonville | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
Philadelphia | 120 | 135 | 1 | .471 |
Pittsburgh | 121 | 135 | 0 | .473 |
Baltimore | 121 | 134 | 1 | .475 |
Washington | 121 | 134 | 1 | .475 |
Indianapolis | 122 | 134 | 0 | .477 |
New Orleans | 122 | 133 | 1 | .479 |
Cleveland | 124 | 131 | 1 | .486 |
NY Giants | 124 | 131 | 1 | .486 |
New England | 125 | 131 | 0 | .488 |
Chicago | 127 | 129 | 0 | .496 |
Seattle | 128 | 128 | 0 | .500 |
Minnesota | 128 | 127 | 1 | .502 |
Buffalo | 129 | 127 | 0 | .504 |
Cincinnati | 129 | 126 | 1 | .506 |
Denver | 129 | 126 | 1 | .506 |
Detroit | 129 | 126 | 1 | .506 |
Atlanta | 130 | 126 | 0 | .508 |
Dallas | 130 | 126 | 0 | .508 |
NY Jets | 131 | 125 | 0 | .512 |
Tampa Bay | 131 | 125 | 0 | .512 |
Miami | 131 | 124 | 1 | .514 |
Arizona | 134 | 122 | 0 | .523 |
San Diego | 134 | 122 | 0 | .523 |
Green Bay | 134 | 121 | 1 | .525 |
Carolina | 135 | 121 | 0 | .527 |
Kansas City | 136 | 119 | 1 | .533 |
St. Louis | 137 | 119 | 0 | .535 |
Oakland | 137 | 118 | 1 | .537 |
San Francisco | 138 | 117 | 1 | .541 |
Those figures include Week 17. Most fantasy leagues are finished before that week rolls around. If you want to toss that one out, you get some minor tweaks.
PROJECTED STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Tennessee | 108 | 132 | 0 | .450 |
Houston | 108 | 131 | 1 | .452 |
Pittsburgh | 111 | 128 | 1 | .465 |
Jacksonville | 114 | 126 | 0 | .475 |
NY Giants | 114 | 126 | 0 | .475 |
Philadelphia | 114 | 125 | 1 | .477 |
Indianapolis | 115 | 125 | 0 | .479 |
Washington | 115 | 124 | 1 | .481 |
Cleveland | 115 | 124 | 1 | .481 |
Buffalo | 117 | 123 | 0 | .488 |
Baltimore | 117 | 122 | 1 | .490 |
New Orleans | 117 | 122 | 1 | .490 |
Minnesota | 119 | 120 | 1 | .498 |
Detroit | 119 | 120 | 1 | .498 |
New England | 120 | 120 | 0 | .500 |
Tampa Bay | 120 | 120 | 0 | .500 |
Chicago | 120 | 119 | 1 | .502 |
Cincinnati | 120 | 119 | 1 | .502 |
Atlanta | 120 | 119 | 1 | .502 |
Seattle | 122 | 117 | 1 | .510 |
St. Louis | 123 | 117 | 0 | .513 |
Dallas | 124 | 116 | 0 | .517 |
NY Jets | 124 | 116 | 0 | .517 |
Miami | 124 | 116 | 0 | .517 |
Oakland | 124 | 115 | 1 | .519 |
Arizona | 125 | 115 | 0 | .521 |
Denver | 125 | 114 | 1 | .523 |
San Diego | 126 | 114 | 0 | .525 |
Green Bay | 127 | 113 | 0 | .529 |
Kansas City | 127 | 112 | 1 | .531 |
Carolina | 128 | 112 | 0 | .533 |
San Francisco | 130 | 110 | 0 | .542 |
—Ian Allan