The last few days, I’ve been posting charts, looking at what happens when you go select players who were among the highest scoring at their position. What kind of dropoff can be expected? Now let’s flip it around. Let’s look instead at where these players come from. That is, when a player posts great numbers, what kind of season did he typically have the year before?
I’m doing quarterbacks this time around. I’ll dip into some of the other positions in the coming days.
With quarterbacks, I just grabbed the top 3 finishers for each of the last 20 years. I picked that level, because that’s what we’re looking for now with quarterbacks. That is, if you select a Newton, Luck or Rodgers in the first two rounds, it’s with the expectation/hope he’s going to be better than all or most of those quarterbacks that get selected in the middle rounds. He had better be a top-3 guy – not just a top-10 type quarterback.
So I have a group of 60 quarterbacks. Of that group, 25 were guys who were also top-3 quarterbacks the previous year. Another 3 were the 4th-best quarterback the previous year. I don’t have the other positions in front of me, but this seems really high. It’s my belief that with quarterbacks, the retention rate is really high – that is, a lot of the guys putting up good numbers are the guys that everybody knew about.
There are, however, also guys coming from the fringes. Like Cam Newton last year, moving up from 17th to No. 1. Of this group of 60, 24 were quarterbacks who didn’t rank in the top 10 the previous year.
I’m presenting the quarterbacks in three batches of 20. In each case, you’re seeing the best quarterbacks from each year, but you’re seeing not their big-year numbers but how they did in the previous season. (With 2015 Cam Newton, for example, you see not his big 2015 stats, but his 18 TD passes from 2014.)
On each of these lists, if a guy was a top-3 quarterback the previous year (a repeat performer) he’s in bold. If he didn’t rank in the top 10, he’s got the dreaded black dot.
| NO. 1 QUARTERBACKS -- THE YEAR BEFORE | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Rank |
| 1996 | Brett Favre, G.B. | 4,413 | 38 | 181 | 3 | 1 |
| 1997 | Brett Favre, G.B. | 3,899 | 39 | 136 | 2 | 1 |
| 1998 | Steve Young, S.F. | 3,029 | 19 | 199 | 3 | 10 |
| 1999 | • Kurt Warner, St.L. | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 58 |
| 2000 | • Daunte Culpepper, Minn. | 0 | 0.0 | 6 | 0 | 77 |
| 2001 | • Kurt Warner, St.L. | 3,429 | 21 | 17 | 0 | 12 |
| 2002 | • Daunte Culpepper, Minn. | 2,612 | 14 | 416 | 5 | 15 |
| 2003 | Daunte Culpepper, Minn. | 3,853 | 18 | 609 | 10 | 1 |
| 2004 | Daunte Culpepper, Minn. | 3,479 | 25 | 422 | 4 | 1 |
| 2005 | • Carson Palmer, Cin. | 2,897 | 18 | 47 | 1 | 19 |
| 2006 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 3,747 | 28 | 45 | 0 | 3 |
| 2007 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 3,529 | 24 | 102 | 0 | 6 |
| 2008 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 4,423 | 28 | 52 | 1 | 4 |
| 2009 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4,038 | 28 | 207 | 4 | 2 |
| 2010 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 4,500 | 33 | -13 | 0 | 4 |
| 2011 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 4,620 | 33 | -3 | 0 | 2 |
| 2012 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 5,476 | 46 | 86 | 1 | 1 |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 4,659 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 2014 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 3,822 | 23 | 377 | 4 | 7 |
| 2015 | • Cam Newton, Car. | 3,127 | 18 | 539 | 5 | 17 |
These guys were the 2nd-best quarterbacks each year. (And with all of these charts, I’m using standard scoring.)
| NO. 2 QUARTERBACKS -- THE YEAR BEFORE | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Rank |
| 1996 | • Vinny Testaverde, Balt. | 2,883 | 17 | 62 | 2 | 20 |
| 1997 | • Kordell Stewart, Pitt. | 100 | 0 | 171 | 5 | 40 |
| 1998 | Brett Favre, G.B. | 3,867 | 35 | 187 | 1 | 1 |
| 1999 | • Steve Beuerlein, Car. | 2,613 | 17 | 26 | 0 | 15 |
| 2000 | • Jeff Garcia, S.F. | 2,544 | 11 | 221 | 2 | 18 |
| 2001 | Jeff Garcia, S.F. | 4,278 | 31 | 414 | 4 | 2 |
| 2002 | Rich Gannon, Oak. | 3,828 | 27 | 231 | 2 | 6 |
| 2003 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 4,200 | 27 | 148 | 2 | 3 |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 4,267 | 29 | 26 | 0 | 2 |
| 2005 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 3,692 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 10 |
| 2006 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 3,576 | 24 | 49 | 1 | 7 |
| 2007 | • Tony Romo, Dall. | 2,903 | 19 | 102 | 0 | 16 |
| 2008 | • Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 218 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 50 |
| 2009 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 5,069 | 34 | -1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2010 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4,434 | 30 | 316 | 5 | 1 |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 3,922 | 28 | 356 | 4 | 1 |
| 2012 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4,643 | 45 | 257 | 3 | 2 |
| 2013 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 5,177 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| 2014 | • Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 2,536 | 17 | 120 | 0 | 26 |
| 2015 | • Blake Bortles, Jac. | 2,908 | 11 | 419 | 0 | 21 |
And here are the No. 3 quarterbacks. Note that they have the most of the out-of-leftfield risers (10 of the 24).
| NO. 3 QUARTERBACKS -- THE YEAR BEFORE | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Rank |
| 1996 | • Mark Brunell, Jac. | 2,168 | 15 | 480 | 4 | 15 |
| 1997 | • Jeff George, Oak. | 698 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 44 |
| 1998 | • Randall Cunningham, Minn. | 501 | 6 | 127 | 0 | 37 |
| 1999 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 3,739 | 26 | 62 | 0 | 4 |
| 2000 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 4,135 | 26 | 73 | 2 | 3 |
| 2001 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 4,413 | 33 | 116 | 1 | 3 |
| 2002 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 4,131 | 26 | 157 | 4 | 3 |
| 2003 | • Matt Hasselbeck, Sea. | 3,075 | 15 | 202 | 1 | 19 |
| 2004 | • Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 3,216 | 16 | 355 | 3 | 13 |
| 2005 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 4,557 | 49 | 38 | 0 | 2 |
| 2006 | • Jon Kitna, Det. | 99 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 54 |
| 2007 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 4,397 | 31 | 36 | 4 | 1 |
| 2008 | • Jay Cutler, Den. | 3,497 | 20 | 205 | 1 | 12 |
| 2009 | • Matt Schaub, Hou. | 3,043 | 15 | 68 | 2 | 21 |
| 2010 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 4,388 | 34 | 33 | 2 | 2 |
| 2011 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 3,900 | 36 | 30 | 1 | 5 |
| 2012 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 5,235 | 39 | 109 | 3 | 3 |
| 2013 | • Andy Dalton, Cin. | 3,669 | 27 | 120 | 4 | 12 |
| 2014 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 5,477 | 55 | -31 | 1 | 1 |
| 2015 | • Tom Brady, N.E. | 4,109 | 33 | 57 | 0 | 11 |