Green Bay won’t necessarily win. The game’s in Atlanta, and the Falcons are really good offensively, averaging a league-high 34 points in the regular season. But the Packers should score plenty of points.

They’ve got a high-powered offense themselves, and it’s in top form right now, with 30-plus points six games in a row. Four of those were against top-6 defenses (Giants, Seahawks, Cowboys, Vikings). Atlanta’s defense, meanwhile, has often been pretty lousy. It was a bottom-10 group in the regular season, both yards and points. It was the worst red-zone defense in the league in the regular season, allowing 40 touchdowns in 55 possessions. As well as the Packers are playing, they should be able to come in and trade punches. That’s what the betting line suggests, with a sky-high over-under of 61 points (Atlanta favored by 4). When these teams met in Week 8, it was that kind of a game, with the Falcons pulling out a 33-32 win. When these teams played at Lambeau in 2014 it was a similar kind of game, with the Packers winning 43-37.

QUARTERBACK: Aaron Rodgers looks like the best of the quarterbacks. There are other great ones who might finish with better numbers; that wouldn’t be shocking. But he’s the favorite. He’s making plays that nobody else can, and he’s in a zone. He’s averaged 306 passing yards in his last 13 games, with 36 TDs (almost three per week). He’s also by far the best running quarterback of what’s left; he averaged 23 rushing yards in the regular season, with 4 TDs. Neither Matt Ryan nor Tom Brady ran for a touchdown in the regular season. And with Rodgers, there’s not much of a fear of his team relying heavily on the run. The Packers have scored over three times as many touchdowns passing (46) as rushing (14). Neither the Patriots (34-20) nor Falcons (41-21) have scored twice as many touchdowns on passes. If the Packers score 4 TDs in this game (and they might), Rodgers realistically could be involved in all of them. With all of the other quarterbacks playing, if their teams score 4 TDs, it almost certainly will include at least one rushing touchdown by a running back. The Packers probably won’t have Jordy Nelson, but as well as they’ve played the last seven quarters without him, Rodgers looks like he’ll probably put up 300-plus touchdowns and 3 TDs anyway. When Green Bay lost at the Georgia Dome back in Week 8, he threw more short passes than usual – 28 of 38 for 246 yards – but still finished with 4 TDs and a passer rating of 125.5. Atlanta’s pass defense simply isn’t very good. In the regular season, only four teams allowed more passing yards, and only four allowed more passing touchdowns. The game’s in the Georgia Dome, but the Falcons went 5-3 in that building, giving up 33, 31 and 29 points in losses against San Diego, Tampa Bay and Kansas City (plus 32-33 points in wins over Green Bay, Carolina and New Orleans). As great as Ryan and Brady are, Rodgers is the choice at quarterback.

RUNNING BACK: Ty Montgomery looks solid. Probably only one back this weekend will be on the field for more plays (LeVeon Bell). The Patriots and Falcons both have committee situations. Not that Montgomery will outperform all of those backs, but he might. He’s facing a modest defense, and the Falcons will be far more concerned with trying to stop the hottest quarterback in the league. Montgomery played poorly in the New York game, but that’s a really good run defense. He bounced back nicely against Dallas, with 81 combined yards and 2 TDs. He was solid in the regular season, averaging 64 rushing and 31 receiving yards in the six games he started, with 3 TDs. He was sick and inactive for the earlier Falcons game, leaving them going with Aaron Ripkowski and Don Jackson in that game. Including his receiving production, Montgomery looks like a safe choice for 80-plus yards. And while the Packers tend to have a pass-dominated offense, they’ve used the run at the goal line more recently, with 11 TD runs in their last eight games. They scored only 3 TDs rushing in their first 10. … Aaron Ripkowski will get on the field. He’s a good blocker, and has some change-up value as a runner and pass catcher. He had that nice game at Detroit, where he ran for 61 yards, caught 2 passes and scored a touchdown. But he’s not a guy they want to use extensively. In the two playoff games he’s carried 6 times for 25 yards, with a 1-yard touchdown, and caught 2 passes for 11 yards. He scored 3 TDs in the regular season. That’s kind of what he is. … The Packers also have Christine Michael, but he probably won’t play much. He carried the ball 3-4 times in each of the last three regular-season games. When Montgomery was ineffective against New York, Michael got some chances in the third quarter and sparked them, running 10 times for 47 yards – he ran hard. But Michael was back to hardly getting on the field last week. … James Starks has missed the last five games with a concussion, but even if cleared he’s unlikely to be active. Montgomery passed him in the pecking order long ago, and Starks is probably behind Michael in the pecking order as well.

WIDE RECEIVER: Reports indicate it’s very unlikely Jordy Nelson will play. He’s got the fractured ribs, and it just doesn’t look likely for this week. So Davante Adams and Randall Cobb should be the main pass catchers. Neither is a can’t-miss lock, but with the way Aaron Rodgers has been lasering it around, each is in play to perhaps be the most productive wide receiver of the weekend. They’re working against a secondary that allowed 31 TD passes in the regular season (only four teams allowed more). Atlanta lost its best cover cornerback, Desmond Trufant, about halfway through the season. Adams has averaged 75 yards in his last 13 games, with 10 TDs. That’s a much better ratio than the other top receiver options this week: Julian Edelman (3 TDs all year), Antonio Brown (13 TDs in last 30 road games), Julio Jones (7 TDs in 15 games). Cobb has been off more often than on this year. He had only 610 yards and 4 TDs in 13 games in the regular season. But now that Nelson’s out, it’s elevated him into a larger role. Cobb has caught 12 passes for 178 yards and 3 TDs in the two playoff games and seems to have his swagger back. Rodgers has long had a nice chemistry with him around the goal line (for years he’s been more effective than Nelson inside the 10). We see Adams as the No. 1 receiver here and Cobb as the not-too-distant No. 2. Adams tweaked an ankle late in the Dallas game, but we’ll assume for now that he’s fine – he was able to return to that game. … Geronimo Allison will play almost as much as those guys. He played really well in the final two regular season games, catching 8 passes for 157 yards and a touchdown. After those games, I was figuring he might be just as good as Cobb – and that the Packers wouldn’t miss Cobb (ankle) if he sat out against the Giants. But Allison has gotten to play plenty the last two weeks, with very little impact – only 4 catches for 54 yards, with no touchdowns. With New England and Atlanta also using plenty of three-receiver sets, Allison isn’t even sure to be a top-10 wide receiver, in my opinion. … If any of these wide receivers gets hurt, it should be Trevor Davis rather than Jeff Janis who fills in. When Adams got banged up late in the Dallas game, it was Davis they put on the field.

TIGHT END: With Jordy Nelson out, that helps make Jared Cook a viable part of the passing game. He’s not perfect. He’ll drop some balls and isn’t great in contested situations. There were a couple of throws last week that a lot of other tight ends would have caught. But Cook has good speed and they like him. And with Nelson out, they’re really using him. Cook has gotten 20 targets the last two weeks, and he’s been coming on, with 85, 37, 56, 48 and 103 yards in his last five games. At Dallas, he caught a touchdown and also caught the historic Half-Mary ball for 35 yards in the final seconds to set up the game-winning field goal. With there not being much else left at this position, Cook is the heavy favorite to lead all tight ends in catches and yards, I think. He’s less dynamic as a scorer, with only 2 TDs in 12 games, but the Falcons at least have allowed 9 TDs to tight ends, by far the most of the remaining defenses. … Richard Rodgers at this point is primarily a blocker. He’s caught only 8 passes in his last seven games, with 2 TDs.

KICKER: Mason Crosby has hit a record 23 straight postseason field goals, including a pair of 50-plus kicks at the end of the Dallas game. He shouldn’t be spooked by any pressure kicks. But all of the other kickers look fine in that record. The Patriots are the heaviest favorite and seem to have more field goal potential, so I’m slotting Stephen Gostkowski first. I am ranking Crosby down at No. 3. The Falcons are at home and a 4-point favorite, and Matt Bryant outscored him by 36 points in the regular season. But not a ton of difference between those guys.

On the rankings below, I’m assuming standard scoring. You’re looking at receiving and rushing yards. For total yards, that includes rushing, receiving and passing. For touchdowns, that’s all scores – pass, run, rec and returns. Fantasy points assume 1 for every 10 run/rec yards, 1 for every 20 passing, 6 points for TDs and 4 for TD passes.

—Ian Allan