You can never say never on any player. Strange things happen. But I’m pretty confident I won’t be selecting any of the three tight ends chosen in the first round of the NFL draft: O.J. Howard (left), Evan Engram and David Njoku.
It’s just a really tough position, and production in the first season is rare.
There have been a couple of noteworthy exceptions. Jeremy Shockey proved to be a game-changer in 2002, with 74 catches in his first season. I remember seeing him in the preseason that year, and it was apparent he was different – played with a chip on his shoulder.
And if you go way back, Keith Jackson caught 81 passes in first season (with the Eagles in 1988). Only five players (all wide receivers) caught more passes that year.
So I guess if the tight end has some tie to Oklahoma, we should look at him a little closer (Jackson played for the Sooners, while Shockey was born in that state).
But the larger body of evidence underscores that it’s extremely unlikely to get much of anything from a tight end in his first season.
In the last 20 years, 20 tight ends have been chosen in the first round. One of those players (Shockey) ranked in the top 10 in his first season. That’s standard fantasy scoring (6 for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards).
Three others we’ll say at least had a pulse: Heath Miller (11th), Dustin Keller (14th) and Tony Gonzalez (17th). Gonzalez caught only 33 passes and 2 TDs, but value must be determined relative to other players of his era, and tight ends weren’t used as much in 1997.
But the remaining 16 of the tight ends – 80 percent of them – finished outside the top 20. If you chose in your fantasy draft to not select them at all, you would have been just fine.
My expectation is that Howard, Engram and Njoku will all rank outside the top 20 this year. There are enough other sleeper-type candidates at this position that my own personal top 20 tight ends will include no rookies.
(I think, by the way, that I posted something similar to this a few weeks back. This one is a little different in that includes not only player stats but the more important ranking of how they stacked up at their position in said year.)
| TIGHT ENDS CHOSEN IN FIRST ROUND | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | No | Yards | TD | Pts | Rk |
| 2006 | 6 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 20 | 265 | 3 | 44.5 | 23 |
| 2004 | 6 | Kellen Winslow, Clev. | 5 | 50 | 0 | 5.0 | 83 |
| 2014 | 10 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 25 | 248 | 1 | 30.8 | 45 |
| 1997 | 13 | • Tony Gonzalez, K.C. | 33 | 368 | 2 | 50.8 | 17 |
| 2002 | 14 | •• Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 74 | 894 | 2 | 101.4 | 3 |
| 2000 | 14 | Bubba Franks, G.B. | 34 | 363 | 1 | 42.3 | 22 |
| 2017 | 19 | O.J. Howard, T.B. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2009 | 20 | Brandon Pettigrew, Det. | 30 | 346 | 2 | 46.6 | 25 |
| 2010 | 21 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 52 | 471 | 4 | 73.1 | 21 |
| 2013 | 21 | Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 39 | 445 | 2 | 56.5 | 29 |
| 2002 | 21 | Daniel Graham, N.E. | 15 | 150 | 1 | 21.0 | 44 |
| 1997 | 22 | David LaFleur, Dall. | 18 | 122 | 2 | 24.2 | 36 |
| 2017 | 23 | Evan Engram, NYG | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2003 | 24 | Dallas Clark, Ind. | 29 | 340 | 1 | 40.0 | 25 |
| 2000 | 27 | Anthony Becht, NYJ | 16 | 144 | 2 | 26.4 | 37 |
| 2002 | 28 | Jerramy Stevens, Sea. | 26 | 252 | 3 | 43.2 | 23 |
| 2006 | 28 | Marcedes Lewis, Jac. | 13 | 126 | 1 | 18.6 | 45 |
| 2017 | 29 | David Njoku, Clev. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2005 | 30 | • Heath Miller, Pitt. | 39 | 459 | 6 | 81.9 | 11 |
| 2008 | 30 | • Dustin Keller, NYJ | 48 | 535 | 3 | 71.5 | 14 |
| 2007 | 31 | Greg Olsen, Chi. | 39 | 391 | 2 | 53.1 | 21 |
| 2001 | 31 | Todd Heap, Balt. | 16 | 206 | 1 | 26.6 | 35 |
| 2004 | 32 | Benjamin Watson, N.E. | 2 | 16 | 0 | 1.6 | 95 |
—Ian Allan