There was a good question raised in the comments yesterday. Andy posted the story about Isaiah Crowell, and a reader asked whether it was likely for a running back on a bad team to finish with good numbers. Most good running backs tend to come from good teams.
This is true, of course. But I figured now would be a good time to trot out the numbers, giving us an idea of how many running backs from lesser teams are able to buck this trend. I looked at the 17 seasons in this century, and I used standard fantasy scoring. Of the 170 top-10 backs (10 each year), 45 played on teams finishing with losing records. And 18 played on teams that finished with records worse than 6-10. So only about 10 percent of the backs come from that group – about one each year. And that’s the kind of success rate I think we can attach to running backs like Isaiah Crowell, Todd Gurley and Carlos Hyde. None of those teams, I think, are getting up to 6-10 this year.
TOP-10 BACKS ON LOSING TEAMS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Yards | TD | Points | Rnk | Record |
2003 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 2,370 | 17 | 343.0 | 3 | 4-12 |
2016 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 2,118 | 20 | 333.8 | 1 | 7-8-1 |
2010 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 2,220 | 18 | 330.0 | 1 | 6-10 |
2004 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 2,096 | 15 | 299.6 | 2 | 6-10 |
2001 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 2,169 | 10 | 276.9 | 2 | 6-10 |
2009 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 1,765 | 16 | 272.5 | 3 | 7-9 |
2006 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 2,180 | 9 | 272.0 | 4 | 7-9 |
2002 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 1,635 | 18 | 271.5 | 5 | 7-9 |
2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1,926 | 12 | 264.6 | 3 | 7-9 |
2011 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 1,980 | 11 | 264.0 | 3 | 5-11 |
2004 | Domanick Davis, Hou. | 1,776 | 14 | 261.6 | 5 | 7-9 |
2014 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1,846 | 10 | 248.6 | 4 | 5-11 |
2016 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 1,623 | 14 | 248.3 | 3 | 7-9 |
2000 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 1,639 | 14 | 247.9 | 6 | 7-9 |
2010 | Peyton Hillis, Cle. | 1,654 | 13 | 243.4 | 2 | 5-11 |
2010 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1,639 | 13 | 241.9 | 3 | 6-10 |
2000 | Ricky Watters, Sea. | 1,855 | 9 | 239.5 | 9 | 6-10 |
2000 | Charlie Garner, S.F. | 1,789 | 10 | 238.9 | 10 | 6-10 |
2003 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 1,942 | 7 | 236.2 | 8 | 5-11 |
2010 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 1,609 | 12 | 232.9 | 5 | 6-10 |
2001 | Corey Dillon, Cin. | 1,543 | 13 | 232.3 | 6 | 6-10 |
2009 | Thomas Jones, Chi. | 1,460 | 14 | 230.0 | 6 | 7-9 |
2005 | LaMont Jordan, Oak. | 1,588 | 11 | 226.8 | 7 | 4-12 |
2008 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 1,389 | 14 | 222.9 | 9 | 5-11 |
2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,603 | 10 | 220.3 | 7 | 5-11 |
2011 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 1,416 | 13 | 219.6 | 5 | 7-9 |
2009 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 1,385 | 13 | 218.5 | 7 | 7-9 |
2012 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 1,703 | 8 | 218.3 | 7 | 6-10 |
2016 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 1,416 | 12 | 213.6 | 8 | 5-11 |
2012 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 1,745 | 6 | 210.5 | 8 | 2-14 |
2013 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1,437 | 11 | 209.7 | 6 | 5-10-1 |
2015 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1,673 | 7 | 209.3 | 3 | 6-10 |
2012 | Trent Richardson, Cle. | 1,317 | 12 | 203.7 | 10 | 5-11 |
2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1,611 | 7 | 203.1 | 9 | 3-13 |
2013 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 1,422 | 10 | 202.2 | 9 | 7-9 |
2016 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 1,362 | 10 | 200.2 | 10 | 7-9 |
2009 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1,738 | 4 | 197.8 | 10 | 1-15 |
2013 | Reggie Bush, Det. | 1,512 | 7 | 193.2 | 10 | 7-9 |
2007 | Willis McGahee, Balt. | 1,438 | 8 | 191.8 | 8 | 5-11 |
2007 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 1,538 | 6 | 189.8 | 9 | 5-11 |
2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1,294 | 10 | 189.4 | 5 | 7-9 |
2011 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1,109 | 13 | 188.9 | 9 | 3-13 |
2015 | Lamar Miller, Mia. | 1,269 | 10 | 186.9 | 6 | 6-10 |
2015 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1,287 | 7 | 172.7 | 9 | 6-10 |
2015 | Latavius Murray, Oak. | 1,298 | 6 | 165.8 | 10 | 7-9 |
A player can still have considerable value, of course, without finishing in the top 10. Running backs in the teens also in hindsight can be well worth selecting in the second and third rounds. Of the 170 running backs who finished between 11th and 20th in those 17 seasons, 68 played on teams with losing records. That’s 40 percent. And of those 68, 30 finished on teams with records worse than 6-10. For the first chart (the top 10 backs), I showed all backs on teams with losing records. For this one, I’m showing only the backs on the really bad teams.
PRODUCTIVE BACKS (11th to 20th) ON LESSER TEAMS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Yards | TD | Points | Rnk | Record |
2002 | Corey Dillon, Cin. | 1,609 | 7 | 202.9 | 16 | 2-14 |
2000 | Corey Dillon, Cin. | 1,593 | 7 | 201.3 | 17 | 4-12 |
2009 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 1,417 | 9 | 197.7 | 11 | 4-12 |
2004 | Michael Pittman, T.B. | 1,317 | 10 | 191.7 | 16 | 5-11 |
2008 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1,421 | 8 | 190.1 | 14 | 2-14 |
2006 | Ladell Betts, Was. | 1,599 | 5 | 189.9 | 11 | 5-11 |
2003 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 1,677 | 3 | 187.7 | 13 | 4-12 |
2003 | Domanick Davis, Hou. | 1,382 | 8 | 186.2 | 15 | 5-11 |
2011 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1,478 | 6 | 183.8 | 11 | 2-14 |
2000 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. | 1,282 | 9 | 182.2 | 20 | 5-11 |
2004 | Thomas Jones, Chi. | 1,375 | 7 | 179.5 | 19 | 5-11 |
2010 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 1,289 | 8 | 178.9 | 16 | 4-12 |
2013 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 1,353 | 7 | 177.3 | 14 | 3-13 |
2008 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 1,262 | 8 | 174.2 | 18 | 0-16 |
2006 | Edgerrin James, Ariz. | 1,376 | 6 | 173.6 | 20 | 5-11 |
2005 | Willis McGahee, Buff. | 1,425 | 5 | 172.5 | 13 | 5-11 |
2016 | Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 1,151 | 9 | 171.1 | 14 | 2-14 |
2014 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 1,229 | 8 | 170.9 | 13 | 4-12 |
2016 | Isaiah Crowell, Cle. | 1,271 | 7 | 169.1 | 15 | 1-15 |
2005 | Domanick Davis, Hou. | 1,313 | 6 | 167.3 | 17 | 2-14 |
2007 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1,273 | 6 | 167.3 | 14 | 3-13 |
2010 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 1,151 | 8 | 163.1 | 18 | 4-12 |
2015 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 1,091 | 9 | 163.1 | 12 | 4-12 |
2015 | Darren McFadden, Dall. | 1,417 | 3 | 161.7 | 13 | 4-12 |
2005 | Chris Brown, Ten. | 1,178 | 7 | 159.8 | 20 | 4-12 |
2016 | Todd Gurley, L.A. | 1,212 | 6 | 157.2 | 19 | 4-12 |
2016 | Matt Forte, NYJ | 1,076 | 8 | 155.6 | 20 | 5-11 |
2012 | Mikel Leshoure, Det. | 1,012 | 9 | 155.2 | 20 | 4-12 |
2013 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 1,117 | 5 | 141.7 | 20 | 4-12 |
2014 | Chris Ivory, NYJ | 944 | 7 | 136.4 | 19 | 4-12 |
—Ian Allan