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Losing & Rushing

Can Isaiah Crowell overcome playing on a bad team?

There was a good question raised in the comments yesterday. Andy posted the story about Isaiah Crowell, and a reader asked whether it was likely for a running back on a bad team to finish with good numbers. Most good running backs tend to come from good teams.

This is true, of course. But I figured now would be a good time to trot out the numbers, giving us an idea of how many running backs from lesser teams are able to buck this trend. I looked at the 17 seasons in this century, and I used standard fantasy scoring. Of the 170 top-10 backs (10 each year), 45 played on teams finishing with losing records. And 18 played on teams that finished with records worse than 6-10. So only about 10 percent of the backs come from that group – about one each year. And that’s the kind of success rate I think we can attach to running backs like Isaiah Crowell, Todd Gurley and Carlos Hyde. None of those teams, I think, are getting up to 6-10 this year.

TOP-10 BACKS ON LOSING TEAMS
YearPlayerYardsTDPointsRnkRecord
2003LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.2,37017343.034-12
2016David Johnson, Ariz.2,11820333.817-8-1
2010Arian Foster, Hou.2,22018330.016-10
2004Tiki Barber, NYG2,09615299.626-10
2001Priest Holmes, K.C.2,16910276.926-10
2009Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.1,76516272.537-9
2006Frank Gore, S.F.2,1809272.047-9
2002Shaun Alexander, Sea.1,63518271.557-9
2012Doug Martin, T.B.1,92612264.637-9
2011Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.1,98011264.035-11
2004Domanick Davis, Hou.1,77614261.657-9
2014Matt Forte, Chi.1,84610248.645-11
2016LeSean McCoy, Buff.1,62314248.337-9
2000Fred Taylor, Jac.1,63914247.967-9
2010Peyton Hillis, Cle.1,65413243.425-11
2010Adrian Peterson, Min.1,63913241.936-10
2000Ricky Watters, Sea.1,8559239.596-10
2000Charlie Garner, S.F.1,78910238.9106-10
2003Fred Taylor, Jac.1,9427236.285-11
2010Chris Johnson, Ten.1,60912232.956-10
2001Corey Dillon, Cin.1,54313232.366-10
2009Thomas Jones, Chi.1,46014230.067-9
2005LaMont Jordan, Oak.1,58811226.874-12
2008Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.1,38914222.995-11
2001LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1,60310220.375-11
2011Marshawn Lynch, Sea.1,41613219.657-9
2009Ricky Williams, Mia.1,38513218.577-9
2012C.J. Spiller, Buff.1,7038218.376-10
2016Melvin Gordon, S.D.1,41612213.685-11
2012Jamaal Charles, K.C.1,7456210.582-14
2013Adrian Peterson, Min.1,43711209.765-10-1
2015Doug Martin, T.B.1,6737209.336-10
2012Trent Richardson, Cle.1,31712203.7105-11
2016Jordan Howard, Chi.1,6117203.193-13
2013Chris Johnson, Ten.1,42210202.297-9
2016Mark Ingram, N.O.1,36210200.2107-9
2009Steven Jackson, St.L.1,7384197.8101-15
2013Reggie Bush, Det.1,5127193.2107-9
2007Willis McGahee, Balt.1,4388191.885-11
2007Frank Gore, S.F.1,5386189.895-11
2015Todd Gurley, St.L.1,29410189.457-9
2011Adrian Peterson, Min.1,10913188.993-13
2015Lamar Miller, Mia.1,26910186.966-10
2015Matt Forte, Chi.1,2877172.796-10
2015Latavius Murray, Oak.1,2986165.8107-9

A player can still have considerable value, of course, without finishing in the top 10. Running backs in the teens also in hindsight can be well worth selecting in the second and third rounds. Of the 170 running backs who finished between 11th and 20th in those 17 seasons, 68 played on teams with losing records. That’s 40 percent. And of those 68, 30 finished on teams with records worse than 6-10. For the first chart (the top 10 backs), I showed all backs on teams with losing records. For this one, I’m showing only the backs on the really bad teams.

PRODUCTIVE BACKS (11th to 20th) ON LESSER TEAMS
YearPlayerYardsTDPointsRnkRecord
2002Corey Dillon, Cin.1,6097202.9162-14
2000Corey Dillon, Cin.1,5937201.3174-12
2009Jamaal Charles, K.C.1,4179197.7114-12
2004Michael Pittman, T.B.1,31710191.7165-11
2008Steven Jackson, St.L.1,4218190.1142-14
2006Ladell Betts, Was.1,5995189.9115-11
2003Tiki Barber, NYG1,6773187.7134-12
2003Domanick Davis, Hou.1,3828186.2155-11
2011Steven Jackson, St.L.1,4786183.8112-14
2000Emmitt Smith, Dall.1,2829182.2205-11
2004Thomas Jones, Chi.1,3757179.5195-11
2010Cedric Benson, Cin.1,2898178.9164-12
2013Alfred Morris, Was.1,3537177.3143-13
2008Kevin Smith, Det.1,2628174.2180-16
2006Edgerrin James, Ariz.1,3766173.6205-11
2005Willis McGahee, Buff.1,4255172.5135-11
2016Carlos Hyde, S.F.1,1519171.1142-14
2014Alfred Morris, Was.1,2298170.9134-12
2016Isaiah Crowell, Cle.1,2717169.1151-15
2005Domanick Davis, Hou.1,3136167.3172-14
2007Steven Jackson, St.L.1,2736167.3143-13
2010Knowshon Moreno, Den.1,1518163.1184-12
2015Danny Woodhead, S.D.1,0919163.1124-12
2015Darren McFadden, Dall.1,4173161.7134-12
2005Chris Brown, Ten.1,1787159.8204-12
2016Todd Gurley, L.A.1,2126157.2194-12
2016Matt Forte, NYJ1,0768155.6205-11
2012Mikel Leshoure, Det.1,0129155.2204-12
2013Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.1,1175141.7204-12
2014Chris Ivory, NYJ9447136.4194-12

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index