The Bengals drafted Joe Mixon in the second round, willing to withstand the criticism they'd get for selecting a player with an ugly off-field incident in his past. Our lean is that they'll waste little time getting him in the lineup. But Geoff Hobson isn't so sure that Jeremy Hill is on the outs.
The editor at the team website, Hobson is as plugged in to team thinking as anyone, and he believes Hill will still be a factor in this backfield. He says the best guy will play, but thinks it might take a little while for Mixon to emerge as that player.
"I don’t see Hill going anywhere in this the last year of his deal after head coach Marvin Lewis’ fiery defense of him during the offseason," writes Hobson. "They could have got a late-round pick for him if they had anything afoot. Hill is going to be far from invisible, at least at the start of things with Giovani Bernard coming off ACL surgery and Mixon learning the ropes. He’ll be busy early and with 29 TDs in 47 career games, Hill figures to always be a presence inside the 5."
We'll see. I think Hill's generally poor performance the last two seasons ensures Mixon moves past him pretty quickly -- maybe in August. As for the idea that Hill could serve as a goal-line back, he actually wasn't overly effective in those situations a year ago. On carries where the team needed 1 yard for a touchdown or to convert a third or fourth-and-1, Hill was just 9 of 17. Only four backs (with at least 10 attempts) converted a lower percentage of those chances.
| 2016 RB CONVERSION RATES, 1 YARD NEEDED | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Con | Att | Pct |
| John Kuhn, N.O. | 10 | 11 | 90.9% |
| Robert Turbin, Ind. | 9 | 10 | 90.0% |
| Mike Gillislee, Buff. | 15 | 17 | 88.2% |
| Ezekiel Elliot, Dall. | 17 | 21 | 81.0% |
| Matt Forte, NYJ | 8 | 10 | 80.0% |
| Matt Jones, Wash. | 8 | 10 | 80.0% |
| Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 12 | 16 | 75.0% |
| LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 9 | 12 | 75.0% |
| Mark Ingram, N.O. | 11 | 15 | 73.3% |
| LeGarrette Blount, N.E. | 19 | 27 | 70.4% |
| DeMarco Murray, Tenn. | 14 | 20 | 70.0% |
| Isaiah Crowell, Clev. | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
| Latavius Murray, Oak. | 14 | 21 | 66.7% |
| Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 14 | 21 | 66.7% |
| Todd Gurley, L.A. | 13 | 21 | 61.9% |
| David Johnson, Ariz. | 16 | 26 | 61.5% |
| Bilal Powell, NYJ | 8 | 13 | 61.5% |
| Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 10 | 17 | 58.8% |
| Spencer Ware, K.C. | 10 | 17 | 58.8% |
| Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 9 | 17 | 52.9% |
| Zach Zenner, Det. | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
| C.J. Anderson, Den. | 5 | 11 | 45.5% |
| Devontae Booker, Den. | 5 | 11 | 45.5% |
| Matt Asiata, Minn. | 8 | 19 | 42.1% |
--Andy Richardson