Second-rounder DeShone Kizer will be a Week 1 starter for Cleveland, and few saw that coming. It seemed more likely one or two of the first-rounders would open the season in the starting lineup, but that's not happening. Tom Savage is starting over Deshaun Watson, and Mitchell Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes will also start out as backups (Trubisky might be No. 3).
It will be battling the odds if all of those players remain backups all season. Over the last 10 years, there been 24 other quarterbacks selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Twenty of them have ended up throwing at least 200 passes in their first season. Nineteen of them started at least 9 games.
Not to say that rookie year contribution means they'll go on to be great pros. Plenty of busy rookies have also busted. But the successes have played plenty as rookies. Aaron Rodgers sitting on the bench for three years -- that just doesn't happen anymore with first-round picks.
So Watson, Mitchell Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes aren't locks to play a lot as rookies; certainly Chicago and Kansas City have clear starters ahead of them, either because they're being guaranteed a small fortune this year, or because they've earned it. But the much more common route is for first-rounders to get into the lineup quickly.
FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, ROOKIE NUMBERS (2008-2017) | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | Starts | |||
2017 | 2 | Mitch Trubisky, Chi. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | |||
2017 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | |||
2017 | 12 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | |||
2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 339 | 627 | 4374 | 23 | 16 | |||
2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 379 | 607 | 3782 | 16 | 16 | |||
2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 354 | 590 | 3512 | 18 | 16 | |||
2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 312 | 535 | 4042 | 22 | 16 | |||
2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 297 | 517 | 3385 | 14 | 15 | |||
2011 | 1 | Cam Newton, Car. | 310 | 517 | 4051 | 21 | 16 | |||
2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 282 | 484 | 3294 | 12 | 16 | |||
2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 280 | 475 | 2908 | 11 | 13 | |||
2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 265 | 434 | 3440 | 16 | 16 | |||
2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 257 | 428 | 2971 | 14 | 16 | |||
2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 210 | 413 | 2214 | 12 | 14 | |||
2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 259 | 402 | 2919 | 14 | 12 | |||
2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 258 | 393 | 3200 | 20 | 15 | |||
2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 201 | 377 | 2267 | 13 | 10 | |||
2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 230 | 370 | 2818 | 19 | 12 | |||
2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 196 | 364 | 2444 | 12 | 15 | |||
2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 180 | 306 | 1972 | 11 | 10 | |||
2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 158 | 291 | 1853 | 13 | 10 | |||
2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 158 | 290 | 1855 | 10 | 9 | |||
2016 | 1 | Jared Goff, L.A. | 112 | 205 | 1089 | 5 | 7 | |||
2016 | 26 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 49 | 83 | 497 | 2 | 2 | |||
2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 41 | 82 | 654 | 5 | 3 | |||
2011 | 8 | Jake Locker, Tenn. | 34 | 66 | 542 | 4 | 0 | |||
2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel, Clev. | 18 | 35 | 175 | 0 | 2 |
--Andy Richardson