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Factoid

Top QB prospects will start on bench

First-rounders open as backups; will they stay there?

Second-rounder DeShone Kizer will be a Week 1 starter for Cleveland, and few saw that coming. It seemed more likely one or two of the first-rounders would open the season in the starting lineup, but that's not happening. Tom Savage is starting over Deshaun Watson, and Mitchell Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes will also start out as backups (Trubisky might be No. 3).

It will be battling the odds if all of those players remain backups all season. Over the last 10 years, there been 24 other quarterbacks selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Twenty of them have ended up throwing at least 200 passes in their first season. Nineteen of them started at least 9 games.

Not to say that rookie year contribution means they'll go on to be great pros. Plenty of busy rookies have also busted. But the successes have played plenty as rookies. Aaron Rodgers sitting on the bench for three years -- that just doesn't happen anymore with first-round picks.

So Watson, Mitchell Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes aren't locks to play a lot as rookies; certainly Chicago and Kansas City have clear starters ahead of them, either because they're being guaranteed a small fortune this year, or because they've earned it. But the much more common route is for first-rounders to get into the lineup quickly.

FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, ROOKIE NUMBERS (2008-2017)
YearPkPlayerCompAttYardsTDStarts
20172Mitch Trubisky, Chi.?????
201710Patrick Mahomes, K.C.?????
201712Deshaun Watson, Hou.?????
20121Andrew Luck, Ind.33962743742316
20162Carson Wentz, Phil.37960737821616
20101Sam Bradford, St.L.35459035121816
20151Jameis Winston, T.B.31253540422216
201222Brandon Weeden, Clev.29751733851415
20111Cam Newton, Car.31051740512116
20128Ryan Tannehill, Mia.28248432941216
20143Blake Bortles, Jac.28047529081113
20083Matt Ryan, Atl.26543434401616
200818Joe Flacco, Balt.25742829711416
201110Blaine Gabbert, Jac.21041322141214
201432Teddy Bridgewater, Minn.25940229191412
20122Robert Griffin III, Wash.25839332002015
20091Matthew Stafford, Det.20137722671310
20152Marcus Mariota, Tenn.23037028181912
20095Mark Sanchez, NYJ19636424441215
201316EJ Manuel, Buff.18030619721110
201112Christian Ponder, Minn.15829118531310
200917Josh Freeman, T.B.1582901855109
20161Jared Goff, L.A.112205108957
201626Paxton Lynch, Den.498349722
201025Tim Tebow, Den.418265453
20118Jake Locker, Tenn.346654240
201422Johnny Manziel, Clev.183517502

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index