Suppose I gave you the opportunity to add a rotating player to your fantasy roster. Deal goes like this: If a receiver (any receiver in the league) goes for 150 yards in a game, he then starts for your fantasy team the following week. Would you be interested in such an offer? Would it be an improvement over putting one player in that spot for the entire season?
Last year, believe it or not, it would have been a significant downgrade. There were 30 such players in 2016, and in their following 30 games, those guys combined to catch only 4 touchdowns (which hardly seems possible). They also averaged only 4.4 catches and 54 yards, operating at below the pace of a 1,000-yard receiver.
Weird.
I started looking into this when scouting Julio Jones. He went for 253 yards and 2 TDs last week, and I was wondering whether that might indicate that he would be either good or bad in his upcoming game. When looking at his past 10 games over 160 yards, I noticed that he scored only one touchdown in those 10 upcoming games.
Should we attempt to ride the hot hand with a good receiver? That strategy paid off nicely last week with Keenan Allen. Or is the smarter move to figure that when a player has a big game, that makes it less likely that he’ll star again the following week – perhaps opponents will key on him more.
I decided to expand the study, looking at all receivers in the last two years who’ve gone over 150 yards – then look at what happened to them in their following games. The findings were more positive for the 2015 season; those receivers averaged 5.7 catches and 77 yards in their next games, with 16 TDs (in 35 games).
But overall, these kind of players haven’t been as dominant as I would expect.
In the last two years, 65 players have gone over 150 yards (actually 70, but five occurred in Week 17, and I’m leaving those games out). Only 12 of those players (less than 20 percent) went for 100-plus yards the next week. An equal number finished with fewer than 30 yards.
Only 16 of these 65 players (about a quarter) scored in their next game. (Four of the players scored 2 TDs.)
Overall, these players averaged 5.1 catches and 66 yards in their next games. If you had a full season’s worth of them, they’d finish with 81 catches, 1,058 yards and 5 TDs.
| WEEK AFTER GAMES WITH 150-PLUS YARDS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Wk | Player | Opp | No | Yds | TD |
| 2015 | 2 | Keenan Allen | at Cin. | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| 2015 | 3 | Steve Smith | Cin. | 13 | 186 | 2 |
| 2015 | 3 | Antonio Brown | at St.L. | 11 | 108 | 0 |
| 2015 | 3 | Allen Robinson | at N.E. | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| 2015 | 4 | A.J. Green | K.C. | 7 | 82 | 0 |
| 2015 | 4 | Julio Jones | Hou. | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| 2015 | 4 | Steve Smith | at Pitt. | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| 2015 | 5 | DeAndre Hopkins | Ind. | 11 | 169 | 0 |
| 2015 | 6 | DeAndre Hopkins | at Jac. | 10 | 148 | 2 |
| 2015 | 7 | Keenan Allen | Oak. | 9 | 89 | 0 |
| 2015 | 7 | Calvin Johnson | Minn. | 5 | 86 | 1 |
| 2015 | 7 | John Brown | Balt. | 4 | 65 | 1 |
| 2015 | 8 | Mike Evans | at Atl. | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| 2015 | 8 | T.Y. Hilton | at Car. | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| 2015 | 9 | Julio Jones | at S.F. | 10 | 137 | 0 |
| 2015 | 9 | Demaryius Thomas | at Ind. | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| 2015 | 10 | Antonio Brown | Clev. | 10 | 139 | 2 |
| 2015 | 10 | Mike Evans | Dall. | 8 | 126 | 0 |
| 2015 | 10 | Alshon Jeffery | at St.L. | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| 2015 | 10 | Sammy Watkins | at NYJ | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| 2015 | 11 | Martavis Bryant | at Sea. | 5 | 69 | 1 |
| 2015 | 12 | Julio Jones | Minn. | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| 2015 | 13 | Sammy Watkins | Hou. | 3 | 109 | 1 |
| 2015 | 13 | Jeremy Maclin | at Oak. | 9 | 95 | 2 |
| 2015 | 13 | Markus Wheaton | Ind. | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| 2015 | 13 | Jarvis Landry | Balt. | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 2015 | 14 | Allen Robinson | Ind. | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 2015 | 15 | Odell Beckham | Car. | 6 | 76 | 1 |
| 2015 | 16 | Jordan Matthews | Wash. | 6 | 104 | 1 |
| 2015 | 16 | Emmanuel Sanders | Cin. | 4 | 67 | 1 |
| 2015 | 16 | Mike Evans | Chi. | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| 2015 | 16 | Antonio Brown | at Balt. | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| 2015 | 16 | DeSean Jackson | at Phil. | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| 2015 | 17 | Julio Jones | N.O. | 9 | 149 | 0 |
| 2015 | 17 | Allen Robinson | at Hou. | 5 | 108 | 0 |
| 2016 | 2 | Willie Snead | at NYG | 5 | 54 | 1 |
| 2016 | 2 | A.J. Green | at Pitt. | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| 2016 | 3 | Stefon Diggs | at Car. | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| 2016 | 4 | Marvin Jones | at Chi. | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| 2016 | 4 | Doug Baldwin | at NYJ | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| 2016 | 4 | T.Y. Hilton | Jac.(UK) | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| 2016 | 5 | A.J. Green | at Dall. | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| 2016 | 5 | Julio Jones | at Den. | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| 2016 | 6 | Greg Olsen | at N.O. | 6 | 94 | 0 |
| 2016 | 6 | T.Y. Hilton | at Hou. | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| 2016 | 7 | Golden Tate | Wash. | 6 | 93 | 0 |
| 2016 | 7 | Rob Gronkowski | at Pitt. | 4 | 93 | 1 |
| 2016 | 7 | Brandin Cooks | at K.C. | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| 2016 | 7 | Odell Beckham | L.A.(UK) | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| 2016 | 8 | A.J. Green | Was.(UK) | 9 | 121 | 0 |
| 2016 | 8 | Julio Jones | G.B. | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| 2016 | 9 | Amari Cooper | Den. | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| 2016 | 10 | Mike Evans | Chi. | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| 2016 | 10 | Robert Woods | at Cin. | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| 2016 | 11 | Antonio Brown | Clev. | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| 2016 | 11 | Davante Adams | at Wash. | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| 2016 | 11 | Stefon Diggs | Ariz. | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| 2016 | 13 | Emmanuel Sanders | at Jac. | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| 2016 | 16 | Brandin Cooks | T.B. | 5 | 98 | 0 |
| 2016 | 17 | Jordy Nelson | at Det. | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| 2016 | 17 | Odell Beckham | at Wash. | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| 2016 | 17 | Doug Baldwin | at S.F. | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| 2016 | 17 | Sammy Watkins | at NYJ | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| 2016 | 17 | Travis Kelce | at S.D. | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| 2016 | 17 | Adam Thielen | Chi. | 1 | 7 | 0 |
—Ian Allan